Purdue's #1 seed chances, Friday update

Recap from yesterday: no big surprises. Louisville crushed Marquette, so that sets up a semifinal matchup with Notre Dame that pretty much requires Purdue to reach the BTT finals. Looking at today's games:

• Purdue has to beat Michigan State, or else the rest is moot.
• A Duke loss to Maryland would be nice.
• A BYU loss to New Mexico would be even better; anything that prevents a BYU-San Diego State matchup in the Mountain West Finals is a good thing. (The winner could end up in front of Purdue no matter which one it is.)
• Connecticut is the team to support in the Big East. The winner of the Louisville-Notre Dame game will also be closing in on that fourth #1 seed.

Looking at the other side of the coin, North Carolina is up against a hot Miami team, but a team that just played a game last night. It's hard to tell exactly when that extra fatigue kicks in, but it could be tonight. San Diego State has only UNLV between themselves and a probable date with BYU; unfortunately for them, they're playing in Las Vegas. Florida plays Bruce "Dead Man Walking" Pearl's Tennessee squad, so despite possible consequences I'm rooting for Florida. (They're one of the three SEC schools that doesn't oversign in football – Florida, that is – so that's another good thing.) Texas plays archrival Texas A&M, and that might be just the type of game to end their Big 12 tournament run before it really starts.

No change from yesterday: a realistic seed for Purdue is the top #2; a worst-case scenario is the third #4. Updates to come later.