So McCarthy did rest a number of starters, and yet the Lions' defense, not the offense, was the guilty party in the resulting loss. With Rodgers, Starks, and Jennings on the bench, the Packers still rolled up 45 points on what was supposed to be one of the better defenses in the NFL in a game that meant so much more to the Lions than the Packers. Of course the Falcons crushed a Tampa Bay team that soon-to-be-ex-coach Raheem Morris had lost weeks ago, so now Detroit travels to New Orleans and the Falcons play the Giants.
Massey gives the Lions a 22% chance to beat New Orleans, so that makes them heavy underdogs, and that sounds about right. The overall path to the Super Bowl, if there is one, probably doesn't change much: assuming New Orleans would beat Atlanta, the Lions would have faced Green Bay in the divisional playoff round if they beat New York, and of course that's who they'll play if they manage to pull off this upset. I do think the Giants are an easier team for the Lions to beat, but that doesn't matter now.
The Playoff Odds report for the wild-card round:
NFC championship appearance: 11.0%, 5th in NFC/8th overall
NFC title: 4.4%, down 0.2 points
Super Bowl win: 2.1%, unchanged
Cincinnati gets a team hoping not to play its fourth-string quarterback. Detroit gets a team with a guy who just set a few NFL records. (Of course, he also plays for the only team to lose a playoff game to a team with a losing record, so there's that.) The Lions were missing three key defensive players in the earlier matchup on Sunday night, and they were never really in the game. That was partly because the offense couldn't find a rhythm in the noisy Superdome, and that aspect won't change today. Suh is, of course, back from suspension, and both Houston and Delmas should play; Mark Ingram is, to my knowledge, the only notable injury for New Orleans. (UPDATE: after I published this, Lance Moore was declared out for the Saints. So now they're down to eleventy-minus-one receivers.) The Lions will need all three to contribute if they are to pull off the upset. Detroit has to get pressure on Brees, they have to keep Stafford upright, and they can't afford to give away points on special teams.
It would take magic for the Lions to win this game, and this year, I think the magic is in just being in the playoffs. Saints, 34-17.
Last week: predicted 20-17, actual 41-45
Current mood: just happy to be here
A profile of zlionsfan
- zlionsfan
- Indiana, United States
- I like cats. I play a lot of games. Sometimes I develop web-based applications; this keeps my current employer from firing me too often. My favorite color is blue, or maybe green.
Showing posts with label season outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label season outlook. Show all posts
Saturday, January 07, 2012
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 17 and beyond
A rout of San Diego puts the Lions in the playoffs, and a New Orleans rout of Atlanta gives Detroit the #5 seed for now. The opening line for the Detroit-Green Bay game was Packers -1.5, but that's already shifted to Detroit -3.5 ... clearly Las Vegas or bettors (or both) see McCarthy resting his starters in a mostly-meaningless game for the Packers. Atlanta plays a late game, so they'll know at kickoff whether or not they have a shot at the #5 seed.
Massey projections:
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
We'll have to wait for next week to find out more ... Massey's new layout makes it really hard to draw any conclusions. Sagarin has the Lions as a slight favorite against either Dallas or the Giants and a 6- to 6.5-point underdog against New Orleans or San Francisco, so that #5 seed is a big deal.
The Playoff Odds report for Week 17:
Mean wins: 10.2, up 0.3
NFC title: 4.6%, up 1.3 points
Super Bowl win: 2.1%, up 0.7 points
Obviously a playoff spot is secured, and that probably is the cause for the increase in NFC and Super Bowl title chances.
The Lions didn't struggle at all last week. It was 24-0 at halftime, and San Diego was never really close. I believe Detroit will have the same focus on the road, even if in front of a hostile crowd and likely in inclement weather. (Weather Underground says otherwise, though.) I'll assume that the Packers don't play Rodgers much, if at all. Detroit will move the ball fairly well, and Flynn won't do nearly as well against a fired-up defense. It won't be easy, but the Lions will lock down the #5 seed. Twenty years ago, they had a similar situation, but it was for the division title and a first-round bye, and it was against the AFC's #1 seed, the Bills. With Kelly, Thomas, and Reed on the sidelines, Buffalo was still able to hold down Barry Sanders and company, but Detroit stole a win in overtime, 17-14, finishing 12-4 (still a franchise record for regular-season wins) and setting the stage for their only playoff win in modern history. There will be no playoff home game, barring some crazy upsets (right, Colts fans?), but still ... Lions, 20-17.
Last week: predicted 31-26, actual 38-10
Current mood: ready for this "playoffs" thing I've heard so much about
Massey projections:
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
We'll have to wait for next week to find out more ... Massey's new layout makes it really hard to draw any conclusions. Sagarin has the Lions as a slight favorite against either Dallas or the Giants and a 6- to 6.5-point underdog against New Orleans or San Francisco, so that #5 seed is a big deal.
The Playoff Odds report for Week 17:
Mean wins: 10.2, up 0.3
NFC title: 4.6%, up 1.3 points
Super Bowl win: 2.1%, up 0.7 points
Obviously a playoff spot is secured, and that probably is the cause for the increase in NFC and Super Bowl title chances.
The Lions didn't struggle at all last week. It was 24-0 at halftime, and San Diego was never really close. I believe Detroit will have the same focus on the road, even if in front of a hostile crowd and likely in inclement weather. (Weather Underground says otherwise, though.) I'll assume that the Packers don't play Rodgers much, if at all. Detroit will move the ball fairly well, and Flynn won't do nearly as well against a fired-up defense. It won't be easy, but the Lions will lock down the #5 seed. Twenty years ago, they had a similar situation, but it was for the division title and a first-round bye, and it was against the AFC's #1 seed, the Bills. With Kelly, Thomas, and Reed on the sidelines, Buffalo was still able to hold down Barry Sanders and company, but Detroit stole a win in overtime, 17-14, finishing 12-4 (still a franchise record for regular-season wins) and setting the stage for their only playoff win in modern history. There will be no playoff home game, barring some crazy upsets (right, Colts fans?), but still ... Lions, 20-17.
Last week: predicted 31-26, actual 38-10
Current mood: ready for this "playoffs" thing I've heard so much about
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 16
Yet again, another close call. Yet again, it came down to the final play, and yes, a 65-yard field goal is still a viable attempt if Sebastian Janikowski is your kicker. The Lions held on, though, and escaped Oakland with a huge win. Instead of being just a game ahead of the sub-wild-card pack, Detroit is now two games up, with their magic number being 1 ... a Lions win, or a loss by each of the teams that don't have a tiebreaker edge over Detroit (Seattle, Chicago, and Arizona), will give them a wild-card spot. Two wins plus at least one Atlanta loss will give them the #5 seed and an "easier" game at the NFC East champion. (Of course if it's Dallas, the Lions already have good memories from a road game there.)
Massey projections:
Week 16: San Diego, slight favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog (moved up)
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
San Diego remains about the same thanks to the Chargers' renaissance. Green Bay drops a little, but of course that is assuming the starters play the entire way. They likely won't, as the Packers should crush the injured Bears and clinch the top seed next week. Without a perfect season at stake, the last game should be meaningless.
Unfortunately, Massey's site has changed, and expected wins are no longer available.
The Playoff Odds report for Week 16:
Mean wins: 9.9, up 0.5
Playoffs: 85.6%, up 11.5 points
NFC title: 3.3%, up 0.9 points
Super Bowl win: 1.4%, up 0.4 points
Winning a 50/50 game gives you an extra half-win. Chicago's collapse is complete, the Giants throw away wild-card hopes, so it's up to Seattle to make a wild-card run. (They have most of the remaining playoff hopes at 10.9%.)
The Lions did struggle against the Raiders' defense, except when it came to Calvin Johnson, and that seems to be a Mrs. Lincoln situation. The Lions were lucky to hold on for the win. Fortunately, they'll be at home this week, but unfortunately, San Diego has figured out how to play again. Instead of an easy win, this should be a close game. I believe Detroit will clinch a playoff win at home, though. Lions, 31-26.
Last week: predicted 24-14, actual 28-27
Current mood: excited
Massey projections:
Week 16: San Diego, slight favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog (moved up)
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
San Diego remains about the same thanks to the Chargers' renaissance. Green Bay drops a little, but of course that is assuming the starters play the entire way. They likely won't, as the Packers should crush the injured Bears and clinch the top seed next week. Without a perfect season at stake, the last game should be meaningless.
Unfortunately, Massey's site has changed, and expected wins are no longer available.
The Playoff Odds report for Week 16:
Mean wins: 9.9, up 0.5
Playoffs: 85.6%, up 11.5 points
NFC title: 3.3%, up 0.9 points
Super Bowl win: 1.4%, up 0.4 points
Winning a 50/50 game gives you an extra half-win. Chicago's collapse is complete, the Giants throw away wild-card hopes, so it's up to Seattle to make a wild-card run. (They have most of the remaining playoff hopes at 10.9%.)
The Lions did struggle against the Raiders' defense, except when it came to Calvin Johnson, and that seems to be a Mrs. Lincoln situation. The Lions were lucky to hold on for the win. Fortunately, they'll be at home this week, but unfortunately, San Diego has figured out how to play again. Instead of an easy win, this should be a close game. I believe Detroit will clinch a playoff win at home, though. Lions, 31-26.
Last week: predicted 24-14, actual 28-27
Current mood: excited
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 15
That was close. For a few minutes, it looked like the Lions would throw away an opportunity to move toward their first playoff spot in 12 seasons (an opportunity, as it turned out, to make up ground on every NFC wild-card contender except Atlanta). Fortunately, the refs helped Detroit on the final play, and instead of getting an embarrassing loss to a weak team with a third-string QB, the Lions hang on to pick up their 8th win, something that hasn't happened since 2000. It's turtles all the way down from here, though: one important game followed by another important game ...
Massey projections:
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, slight favorite (moved down)
Week 17: at Green Bay, overwhelming underdog (moved down)
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
San Diego drops again as the Chargers seem less likely to have thrown the season away and Detroit nearly loses a game they should have won easily. Green Bay does slide, as I thought it would. Expected wins are up a tick to 9.28, which is unusual given that two of their three remaining games dropped in probability.
The Playoff Odds report is below, and this time, it's just the injury-adjusted version:
Mean wins: 9.4, up 0.2
Playoffs: 74.1%, up 8.1 points
NFC title: 2.4%, down 0.1 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, unchanged
Nothing unusual here: Chicago and Dallas rocket downward, with Atlanta and Detroit the beneficiaries. NFC and Super Bowl chances are unlikely to change much, if at all.
Stafford did not carve up the Minnesota secondary. Jared Allen did cry about the officiating, but in this case, his complaints were justified: that was absolutely a face mask penalty that went uncalled, and bad calls in game X don't justify bad calls in game Y. Still, the defense swarmed Ponder and Webb (6 turnovers, 4 sacks, 2 touchdowns – I really should have started them) and built a big enough lead to give Detroit the chance to hold on when the second half, for a change, did not go their way. That should happen this week as well. Carson Palmer has played just one good defense, and he actually had a decent day against Chicago ... but he's thrown 3 or more picks in three of his seven games, all of which came against teams with average to below-average pass defenses. Detroit's pass defense is second in the league. If Houston or Delmas is healthy, this could be ugly for Oakland; if the Lions aren't careful, though, they could struggle against the Raiders' defense. (Oakland does give up a lot on the ground, but with Kevin Smith injured, the Lions would have no one to take advantage of that.) I think they will be careful, and I think Detroit's defense will give them their ninth win of the season. Lions, 24-14.
Last week: predicted 37-21, actual 34-28
Current mood: cautiously optimistic
Massey projections:
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, slight favorite (moved down)
Week 17: at Green Bay, overwhelming underdog (moved down)
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
San Diego drops again as the Chargers seem less likely to have thrown the season away and Detroit nearly loses a game they should have won easily. Green Bay does slide, as I thought it would. Expected wins are up a tick to 9.28, which is unusual given that two of their three remaining games dropped in probability.
The Playoff Odds report is below, and this time, it's just the injury-adjusted version:
Mean wins: 9.4, up 0.2
Playoffs: 74.1%, up 8.1 points
NFC title: 2.4%, down 0.1 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, unchanged
Nothing unusual here: Chicago and Dallas rocket downward, with Atlanta and Detroit the beneficiaries. NFC and Super Bowl chances are unlikely to change much, if at all.
Stafford did not carve up the Minnesota secondary. Jared Allen did cry about the officiating, but in this case, his complaints were justified: that was absolutely a face mask penalty that went uncalled, and bad calls in game X don't justify bad calls in game Y. Still, the defense swarmed Ponder and Webb (6 turnovers, 4 sacks, 2 touchdowns – I really should have started them) and built a big enough lead to give Detroit the chance to hold on when the second half, for a change, did not go their way. That should happen this week as well. Carson Palmer has played just one good defense, and he actually had a decent day against Chicago ... but he's thrown 3 or more picks in three of his seven games, all of which came against teams with average to below-average pass defenses. Detroit's pass defense is second in the league. If Houston or Delmas is healthy, this could be ugly for Oakland; if the Lions aren't careful, though, they could struggle against the Raiders' defense. (Oakland does give up a lot on the ground, but with Kevin Smith injured, the Lions would have no one to take advantage of that.) I think they will be careful, and I think Detroit's defense will give them their ninth win of the season. Lions, 24-14.
Last week: predicted 37-21, actual 34-28
Current mood: cautiously optimistic
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 14
So that was the last of the bonus games, the ones the Lions probably weren't going to win. The rest are games they probably need to win, possibly including the season finale (the one where Green Bay will have clinched everything and should be resting their starters). With Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, and the Giants losing, Detroit could have been in a really nice position with a win, but whatever.
Massey projections:
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, favorite (moved down)
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
The San Diego game flips and the Green Bay game is about to move to overwhelming. Still, Detroit is favored in three of its four remaining games. Expected wins are down to 9.24, once again dropping after a loss. (Those "partial" wins – the games in which the Lions are not favored – have a more noticeable impact later in the season.)
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.2, down 0.5
Playoffs: 58.2%, up 5.8 points
NFC title: 2.3%, up 0.3 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, up 0.3 points
Again, the mean wins drop due to Detroit not winning a game they had a reasonable chance of winning. The division title is effectively out of reach, but the playoff chances spike because of Chicago's unexpected loss to Kansas City.
Next, playoff odds reflecting the loss of key QBs:
Mean wins: 9.2, same
Playoffs: 66.0%, 7.8 points higher
NFC title: 2.5%, 0.2 points higher
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, same
The playoff odds jump is a reflection of Hanie's struggles. Kansas City was crushed by Detroit; the Bears should have done the same.
The Lions did dig themselves a big first-half hole and did not climb out of it; I got basically everything right about that game. Unfortunately for Detroit, injuries on defense continue to pile up. Suh will be suspended for this game as well, and if neither Delmas nor Houston can play, the Lions will have backups in too many positions to be able to pressure Ponder as they'd like to, especially if Fairley misses any time. (He probably wasn't 100% in the first place.) Still, with Peterson either out or just returning after a high ankle sprain, an injury that really affects RBs, Minnesota won't be quite the same team they were early in the season. Ponder's much better than McNabb was, but he's still inexperienced, and the Lions will be looking to take advantage of his mistakes. The beleaguered Vikings defense won't have a home crowd to support them: look for Jared Allen to cry about officiating as Stafford carves up their secondary. Lions, 37-21.
Last week: predicted 20-31, actual 17-31
Current mood: expecting something decent
Massey projections:
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, favorite (moved down)
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
The San Diego game flips and the Green Bay game is about to move to overwhelming. Still, Detroit is favored in three of its four remaining games. Expected wins are down to 9.24, once again dropping after a loss. (Those "partial" wins – the games in which the Lions are not favored – have a more noticeable impact later in the season.)
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.2, down 0.5
Playoffs: 58.2%, up 5.8 points
NFC title: 2.3%, up 0.3 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, up 0.3 points
Again, the mean wins drop due to Detroit not winning a game they had a reasonable chance of winning. The division title is effectively out of reach, but the playoff chances spike because of Chicago's unexpected loss to Kansas City.
Next, playoff odds reflecting the loss of key QBs:
Mean wins: 9.2, same
Playoffs: 66.0%, 7.8 points higher
NFC title: 2.5%, 0.2 points higher
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, same
The playoff odds jump is a reflection of Hanie's struggles. Kansas City was crushed by Detroit; the Bears should have done the same.
The Lions did dig themselves a big first-half hole and did not climb out of it; I got basically everything right about that game. Unfortunately for Detroit, injuries on defense continue to pile up. Suh will be suspended for this game as well, and if neither Delmas nor Houston can play, the Lions will have backups in too many positions to be able to pressure Ponder as they'd like to, especially if Fairley misses any time. (He probably wasn't 100% in the first place.) Still, with Peterson either out or just returning after a high ankle sprain, an injury that really affects RBs, Minnesota won't be quite the same team they were early in the season. Ponder's much better than McNabb was, but he's still inexperienced, and the Lions will be looking to take advantage of his mistakes. The beleaguered Vikings defense won't have a home crowd to support them: look for Jared Allen to cry about officiating as Stafford carves up their secondary. Lions, 37-21.
Last week: predicted 20-31, actual 17-31
Current mood: expecting something decent
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 13
The one Sunday each year where I'm guaranteed not to have to worry about the Lions playing. Of course, it turns out to be a Sunday where the only game I picked wrong was my 1-point game. (I also picked Detroit to beat Green Bay because why not? I still won this week. Back off.) Detroit had its chances, but once again, they made too many mistakes against a better team. A win would have been huge, but instead, they're faced with the prospect of falling a game behind Chicago and Atlanta with both teams having tiebreaker advantages against them.
Massey projections:
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite (moved down)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
Trending down because of the loss and other teams' performances. Minnesota and Green Bay are both in the 85-86 range (in opposite directions, of course). San Diego is on the verge of being an overwhelming underdog. Expected wins are down to 9.64, and that will probably fall again if the Saints win Sunday night, as is expected given their dominant performance Monday night against the Giants.
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.7, down 0.6
Playoffs: 52.4%, down 14.6 points
Division title: 0.1%, down 5.0 points
NFC title: 2.0%, down 1.7 pointsSuper Bowl win: 0.7%, down 0.9 points
The mean wins drop due to Detroit not winning a game they had a roughly 50-50 chance of winning; the division and top-seed odds plummet because the loss locks Detroit out of first, barring some forfeits; the rest simply reflects a Detroit loss. They can't afford many more of those.
Again, playoff odds reflecting the loss of key QBs:
Mean wins: 9.6, 0.1 lower
Playoffs: 55.1%, 2.7 points higher
Division title: 0.1%, same
NFC title: 1.9%, 0.1 points lower
Super Bowl win: 0.9%, 0.2 points higher
Similar to last week, with the playoff odds higher because of Cutler and the Super Bowl odds higher because of Schaub and now Leinart. Not sure why the mean wins are lower.
I thought it would be a shootout, but the defenses stood tall, especially Green Bay's. If that isn't the case Sunday night, this could get ugly. The one blowout loss this year came in a game when 21 points were scored without the defense on the field; the Lions have yet to be rolled by an offense. Of course, they haven't faced a strong offense on the road since the Dallas game, and in that game, they were terrible in the first half. I don't think New Orleans will help them out in the second. Saints, 31-20.
Last week: predicted 24-39, actual 15-27
Current mood: expecting the worst
Massey projections:
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite (moved down)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
Trending down because of the loss and other teams' performances. Minnesota and Green Bay are both in the 85-86 range (in opposite directions, of course). San Diego is on the verge of being an overwhelming underdog. Expected wins are down to 9.64, and that will probably fall again if the Saints win Sunday night, as is expected given their dominant performance Monday night against the Giants.
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.7, down 0.6
Playoffs: 52.4%, down 14.6 points
Division title: 0.1%, down 5.0 points
NFC title: 2.0%, down 1.7 pointsSuper Bowl win: 0.7%, down 0.9 points
The mean wins drop due to Detroit not winning a game they had a roughly 50-50 chance of winning; the division and top-seed odds plummet because the loss locks Detroit out of first, barring some forfeits; the rest simply reflects a Detroit loss. They can't afford many more of those.
Again, playoff odds reflecting the loss of key QBs:
Mean wins: 9.6, 0.1 lower
Playoffs: 55.1%, 2.7 points higher
Division title: 0.1%, same
NFC title: 1.9%, 0.1 points lower
Super Bowl win: 0.9%, 0.2 points higher
Similar to last week, with the playoff odds higher because of Cutler and the Super Bowl odds higher because of Schaub and now Leinart. Not sure why the mean wins are lower.
I thought it would be a shootout, but the defenses stood tall, especially Green Bay's. If that isn't the case Sunday night, this could get ugly. The one blowout loss this year came in a game when 21 points were scored without the defense on the field; the Lions have yet to be rolled by an offense. Of course, they haven't faced a strong offense on the road since the Dallas game, and in that game, they were terrible in the first half. I don't think New Orleans will help them out in the second. Saints, 31-20.
Last week: predicted 24-39, actual 15-27
Current mood: expecting the worst
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 12
Back to the early-season script: first-half mistakes, second-half domination. What's troubling is that this was one of the worst defenses in football, and Detroit gave them opportunities over and over again. (I didn't see the game, so I don't know how much was Carolina playing well defensively and how much was Detroit making silly mistakes.)
Massey projections:
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
No significant changes, and that will probably be the case the rest of the way. Weeks 12 and 13 move to the other side of the line (41% and 87%, both a tick or two away from reverting.) Estimated wins are 10.3, down just a touch. Again, Weeks 14-16 will be the keys; a win over New Orleans would be huge, and of course an upset of Green Bay on Thanksgiving, well ...
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.3, up 0.5
Playoffs: 67.0%, up 4.7 points
Division title: 5.1%, up 1.4 points
Top seed: 0.8%, up 0.2 points
NFC title: 3.7%, up 0.9 points
Super Bowl win: 1.6%, up 0.6 points
The Lions benefit somewhat from the Giants' loss to Philadelphia. New York's remaining schedule will likely drop them out of playoff contention, which is better than having Dallas stick around in the wild-card race (even though Detroit has the head-to-head win, that only applies if they finish with the same record.
The injury to Cutler may be significant, though. Let's take a look at the Playoff Odds with an estimate of the loss of Cutler (as well as Schaub and Cassel in the AFC):
Mean wins: 10.3, same
Playoffs: 69.8%, 2.8 points higher
Division title: 4.9%, 0.2 points lower
Top seed: 0.8%, same
NFC title: 3.6%, 0.1 points lower
Super Bowl win: 1.7%, 0.1 points higher
The higher playoff chances are from Chicago's chances dropping a bit; the smaller shot at the division is because Chicago still has a game left against Green Bay, and that hypothetical scenario requires the Packers to lose at least one more game (assuming Detroit sweeps them; obviously at least a split would be required). The Super Bowl chances are probably due to the prospect of facing Houston without Schaub.
So I got the offensive part right, but didn't count on the defense being put in untenable positions time and again against a solid offense. This time, it'll be much the same, except the defense will be better and the offense will be much better. It's a strange situation. On the one hand, no one expects the Lions to win. On the other hand, to be the best, eventually you have to beat the best. Detroit obviously isn't the best team in the league this season and probably isn't close, but a win Thursday would certainly be a big step back toward respectability. I just don't see it happening if Rodgers stays healthy. Packers, 34-29.
Last week: predicted 37-17, actual 49-35
Current mood: expecting the worst
Massey projections:
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
No significant changes, and that will probably be the case the rest of the way. Weeks 12 and 13 move to the other side of the line (41% and 87%, both a tick or two away from reverting.) Estimated wins are 10.3, down just a touch. Again, Weeks 14-16 will be the keys; a win over New Orleans would be huge, and of course an upset of Green Bay on Thanksgiving, well ...
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.3, up 0.5
Playoffs: 67.0%, up 4.7 points
Division title: 5.1%, up 1.4 points
Top seed: 0.8%, up 0.2 points
NFC title: 3.7%, up 0.9 points
Super Bowl win: 1.6%, up 0.6 points
The Lions benefit somewhat from the Giants' loss to Philadelphia. New York's remaining schedule will likely drop them out of playoff contention, which is better than having Dallas stick around in the wild-card race (even though Detroit has the head-to-head win, that only applies if they finish with the same record.
The injury to Cutler may be significant, though. Let's take a look at the Playoff Odds with an estimate of the loss of Cutler (as well as Schaub and Cassel in the AFC):
Mean wins: 10.3, same
Playoffs: 69.8%, 2.8 points higher
Division title: 4.9%, 0.2 points lower
Top seed: 0.8%, same
NFC title: 3.6%, 0.1 points lower
Super Bowl win: 1.7%, 0.1 points higher
The higher playoff chances are from Chicago's chances dropping a bit; the smaller shot at the division is because Chicago still has a game left against Green Bay, and that hypothetical scenario requires the Packers to lose at least one more game (assuming Detroit sweeps them; obviously at least a split would be required). The Super Bowl chances are probably due to the prospect of facing Houston without Schaub.
So I got the offensive part right, but didn't count on the defense being put in untenable positions time and again against a solid offense. This time, it'll be much the same, except the defense will be better and the offense will be much better. It's a strange situation. On the one hand, no one expects the Lions to win. On the other hand, to be the best, eventually you have to beat the best. Detroit obviously isn't the best team in the league this season and probably isn't close, but a win Thursday would certainly be a big step back toward respectability. I just don't see it happening if Rodgers stays healthy. Packers, 34-29.
Last week: predicted 37-17, actual 49-35
Current mood: expecting the worst
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 11
While the score may have been surprising, keep in mind that 21 points came from the defense and special teams. The Bears' offense played about as well as you'd expect; credit goes to the Chicago defense, but those touchdowns aren't predictors of future performance. Massey's estimate of "slight underdog" was probably applicable here.
Massey projections:
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog (moved down)
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite (moved down)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
Essentially the opposite of last week, with the Green Bay game moving as well. Estimated wins are 10.4, so a little less than a full game down from last week. Still a decent shot at playoffs, but the Lions have used up their free games: they'll have to win the games in which they're favored to have a decent shot.
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.8, down 0.7
Playoffs: 62.3%, down 17.2 points
Division title: 3.7%, down 9.2 points
Top seed: 0.6%, down 2.9 points
NFC title: 2.8%, down 4.0 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, down 2.4 points
The loss to Chicago essentially removes any remaining chance of winning the division and getting the top seed; the NFC and Super Bowl odds drop as Detroit shows an inability to beat contenders on the road. Playoffs are still in the picture, but as with Massey's projections, the Lions need to hold serve at home and also win at Oakland.
As mentioned last week, this wasn't a killer, but it sure didn't help. Chicago needed the game more than Detroit did (falling back two games behind the Lions with Detroit holding a sweep would have put Chicago against the NFC East and South teams for the remaining wild-card spot). Carolina is a different story: they still have a long way to go to be decent, and the defense shows it. Detroit tends to play well against bad defenses, and I think that will be the case today. Lions, 37-17.
Last week: predicted 13-23, actual 13-37
Current mood: fingers crossed
Massey projections:
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog (moved down)
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite (moved down)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
Essentially the opposite of last week, with the Green Bay game moving as well. Estimated wins are 10.4, so a little less than a full game down from last week. Still a decent shot at playoffs, but the Lions have used up their free games: they'll have to win the games in which they're favored to have a decent shot.
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.8, down 0.7
Playoffs: 62.3%, down 17.2 points
Division title: 3.7%, down 9.2 points
Top seed: 0.6%, down 2.9 points
NFC title: 2.8%, down 4.0 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, down 2.4 points
The loss to Chicago essentially removes any remaining chance of winning the division and getting the top seed; the NFC and Super Bowl odds drop as Detroit shows an inability to beat contenders on the road. Playoffs are still in the picture, but as with Massey's projections, the Lions need to hold serve at home and also win at Oakland.
As mentioned last week, this wasn't a killer, but it sure didn't help. Chicago needed the game more than Detroit did (falling back two games behind the Lions with Detroit holding a sweep would have put Chicago against the NFC East and South teams for the remaining wild-card spot). Carolina is a different story: they still have a long way to go to be decent, and the defense shows it. Detroit tends to play well against bad defenses, and I think that will be the case today. Lions, 37-17.
Last week: predicted 13-23, actual 13-37
Current mood: fingers crossed
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 10
Obviously no changes on the Lions' side ... it was disappointing to see Chicago beat Philadelphia because it puts the Bears even with Detroit if they win this week, but it does keep another team farther from playoff contention, and the Lions don't have to pass every team.
Changes below come from opponents' results:
Massey projections:
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
Not much to note. The Green Bay home game is about to flip to underdog status, and the Minnesota game is just barely overwhelming. The Lions are still heavy favorites or better in four of their remaining eight games, which suggests at least a 10-6 record, and in fact estimated wins are up again to 10.94. (Remember that the Lions have three games as underdogs where the likelihood of them winning is 40% or better.)
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.5, unchanged
Playoffs: 79.6%, down 4.1 points
Division title: 12.9%, down 7.1 points
Top seed: 3.5%, down 1.4 points
NFC title: 6.8%, down 1.7 points
Super Bowl win: 3.4%, down 1.0 points
The Chicago win establishes the Bears as a serious contender for a playoff spot (up 22.6 points to 62.2%, third among wild-card teams behind Detroit and Atlanta). Green Bay continues to recede in the distance: while their defense still looks flawed, their offense still looks good enough to overcome those mistakes.
The meat of the schedule begins Sunday. A win in Chicago would be a huge boost to Detroit's playoff hopes; a loss isn't a killer, but it does create problems, given that the loss to Atlanta gives the Falcons a head-to-head edge. The Bears are vulnerable, just as the 49ers and Falcons were. Playoff teams win at least some of these games. Make it happen.
Do I think it will? No. The Lions had several chances to win the San Francisco game at home and did not, and Dallas doesn't yet look like a contender. Until Detroit can beat a contender on the road, I'm not sure they can get it done. Bears, 23-13.
Last week: no game
Current mood: pessimistic
Changes below come from opponents' results:
Massey projections:
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
Not much to note. The Green Bay home game is about to flip to underdog status, and the Minnesota game is just barely overwhelming. The Lions are still heavy favorites or better in four of their remaining eight games, which suggests at least a 10-6 record, and in fact estimated wins are up again to 10.94. (Remember that the Lions have three games as underdogs where the likelihood of them winning is 40% or better.)
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.5, unchanged
Playoffs: 79.6%, down 4.1 points
Division title: 12.9%, down 7.1 points
Top seed: 3.5%, down 1.4 points
NFC title: 6.8%, down 1.7 points
Super Bowl win: 3.4%, down 1.0 points
The Chicago win establishes the Bears as a serious contender for a playoff spot (up 22.6 points to 62.2%, third among wild-card teams behind Detroit and Atlanta). Green Bay continues to recede in the distance: while their defense still looks flawed, their offense still looks good enough to overcome those mistakes.
The meat of the schedule begins Sunday. A win in Chicago would be a huge boost to Detroit's playoff hopes; a loss isn't a killer, but it does create problems, given that the loss to Atlanta gives the Falcons a head-to-head edge. The Bears are vulnerable, just as the 49ers and Falcons were. Playoff teams win at least some of these games. Make it happen.
Do I think it will? No. The Lions had several chances to win the San Francisco game at home and did not, and Dallas doesn't yet look like a contender. Until Detroit can beat a contender on the road, I'm not sure they can get it done. Bears, 23-13.
Last week: no game
Current mood: pessimistic
Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 9 (bye week)
Doing this just to track changes, even though there isn't anything to predict this week.
For the second time this year, the Lions absolutely dominated an AFC West opponent. All that proves, I think, is that the AFC West is terrible. (It's true that good teams stomp bad opponents, but the Lions did not stomp Minnesota.) The defense, in particular, made sure that this game wouldn't be like the last two. I bet Cliff Avril is looking forward to seeing more lefthanded quarterbacks in the league.
Combine this game with some interesting results across the league, and there should be some changes below.
Massey projections:
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
Again, all movement that makes sense given the Week 8 results (although keep in mind that it's a cumulative effect: these changes will get smaller and smaller as the season goes on). Estimated wins are up to 10.82, which reflects the difficulty of their remaining schedule. (Massey has the Lions 3rd overall, but with the toughest schedule in the last nine weeks.)
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.5, up 0.8
Playoffs: 83.7%, up 16.1 points
Division title: 17.0%, up 7.1 points
Top seed: 4.9%, up 2.2 points
NFC title: 8.5%, up 4.0 points
Super Bowl win: 4.4%, up 2.5 points
Green Bay still looks good, but they lose a tiny bit of ground from not playing. More important was the Saints losing; that, coupled with the Cowboys and Washington losing, took down a few of the teams likely to compete for a wild-card spot, which means that the Lions benefit.
Now Detroit gets to sit back and wait for a week. The way Chicago handles the pressure from Philadelphia may show how much Martz learned from the Monday Night loss to the Lions: the Eagles and Lions do some similar things and have similar pressure from outside (although the Eagles' secondary is much better, at least now that it's playing well). My guess is that they won't have been able to do too much, other than reminding Cutler not to hold onto the ball forever.
Last week: predicted 19-8, actual 45-10
Current mood: relieved
For the second time this year, the Lions absolutely dominated an AFC West opponent. All that proves, I think, is that the AFC West is terrible. (It's true that good teams stomp bad opponents, but the Lions did not stomp Minnesota.) The defense, in particular, made sure that this game wouldn't be like the last two. I bet Cliff Avril is looking forward to seeing more lefthanded quarterbacks in the league.
Combine this game with some interesting results across the league, and there should be some changes below.
Massey projections:
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
Again, all movement that makes sense given the Week 8 results (although keep in mind that it's a cumulative effect: these changes will get smaller and smaller as the season goes on). Estimated wins are up to 10.82, which reflects the difficulty of their remaining schedule. (Massey has the Lions 3rd overall, but with the toughest schedule in the last nine weeks.)
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.5, up 0.8
Playoffs: 83.7%, up 16.1 points
Division title: 17.0%, up 7.1 points
Top seed: 4.9%, up 2.2 points
NFC title: 8.5%, up 4.0 points
Super Bowl win: 4.4%, up 2.5 points
Green Bay still looks good, but they lose a tiny bit of ground from not playing. More important was the Saints losing; that, coupled with the Cowboys and Washington losing, took down a few of the teams likely to compete for a wild-card spot, which means that the Lions benefit.
Now Detroit gets to sit back and wait for a week. The way Chicago handles the pressure from Philadelphia may show how much Martz learned from the Monday Night loss to the Lions: the Eagles and Lions do some similar things and have similar pressure from outside (although the Eagles' secondary is much better, at least now that it's playing well). My guess is that they won't have been able to do too much, other than reminding Cutler not to hold onto the ball forever.
Last week: predicted 19-8, actual 45-10
Current mood: relieved
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 8
This time, it was an entire game's worth of struggles. Offensive line is finally proving to be the weak spot it seemed to be coming into the season, and with special teams still performing poorly, there's just too much for the defense to handle even when it's at the top of its game.
Penalties are becoming an issue again. Suh is obviously branded as a dirty player, and unfortunately he seems unaware that perception is at least as important as reality, and the longer this lasts, the less likely it is that there is a difference. (Rodney Harrison, in talking about this, still didn't think he himself was a dirty player. Case in point.)
Back-to-back losses in games where they were favored, substantially in the latter, should have a big impact on projections. Let's see:
Massey projections:
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, underdog (moved down)
Week 11: Carolina, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog (moved down)
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
So yeah, there was some movement. The loss of Jason Campbell pushed the Raiders game to favorite status (63%), but that was about it. This is probably a more accurate reflection of the Lions' strength. Estimated wins are right at 10, which matches the game-by-game projections.
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.7, down 0.5
Playoffs: 67.6%, down 13.0 points
Division title: 9.9%, down 11.9 points
Top seed: 2.7%, down 4.5 points
NFC title: 4.5%, down 3.2 points
Super Bowl win: 1.9%, down 1.4 points
15-1 record: off the board
Being two losses back means the division is pretty much gone; yes, the Packers are on the schedule twice, but in neither game is Detroit favored, and does this look like a team that can beat Green Bay? No. The one benefit so far is that the Lions' schedule is turning out to be more difficult than it seemed at first, so that's making the 5-2 record better than it might otherwise be. Having a two-in-three shot at a playoff spot is still pretty good.
So, after falling in consecutive week to teams that weren't playing as well as the Lions but managed to turn it around, Detroit has a game that they simply must win. If you can't beat bad teams, you aren't a playoff team. Fortunately, the Broncos have benched their starting QB and are using a running back in his place. Even if Stafford is not 100%, the Lions should completely shut down TEBOWTEBOWTEBOW and the Denver offense. Lions, 19-8.
Last week: predicted 27-17, actual 16-23
Current mood: disappointed
Penalties are becoming an issue again. Suh is obviously branded as a dirty player, and unfortunately he seems unaware that perception is at least as important as reality, and the longer this lasts, the less likely it is that there is a difference. (Rodney Harrison, in talking about this, still didn't think he himself was a dirty player. Case in point.)
Back-to-back losses in games where they were favored, substantially in the latter, should have a big impact on projections. Let's see:
Massey projections:
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, underdog (moved down)
Week 11: Carolina, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog (moved down)
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
So yeah, there was some movement. The loss of Jason Campbell pushed the Raiders game to favorite status (63%), but that was about it. This is probably a more accurate reflection of the Lions' strength. Estimated wins are right at 10, which matches the game-by-game projections.
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.7, down 0.5
Playoffs: 67.6%, down 13.0 points
Division title: 9.9%, down 11.9 points
Top seed: 2.7%, down 4.5 points
NFC title: 4.5%, down 3.2 points
Super Bowl win: 1.9%, down 1.4 points
15-1 record: off the board
Being two losses back means the division is pretty much gone; yes, the Packers are on the schedule twice, but in neither game is Detroit favored, and does this look like a team that can beat Green Bay? No. The one benefit so far is that the Lions' schedule is turning out to be more difficult than it seemed at first, so that's making the 5-2 record better than it might otherwise be. Having a two-in-three shot at a playoff spot is still pretty good.
So, after falling in consecutive week to teams that weren't playing as well as the Lions but managed to turn it around, Detroit has a game that they simply must win. If you can't beat bad teams, you aren't a playoff team. Fortunately, the Broncos have benched their starting QB and are using a running back in his place. Even if Stafford is not 100%, the Lions should completely shut down TEBOWTEBOWTEBOW and the Denver offense. Lions, 19-8.
Last week: predicted 27-17, actual 16-23
Current mood: disappointed
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 7
Once again, first-half struggles followed by ... oh wait, there was no second-half dominance. The Lions defense played fairly well, but failed to contain Frank Gore on two long runs. One led to a touchdown and the other led to a field goal; those two plays were arguably the difference.
On the other hand, Detroit did keep San Francisco in check, and even with those plays, the Lions had two chances to win, thanks in part to conservative playcalling by the 49ers. Stafford was inaccurate on too many plays, and the Lions simply couldn't recover.
Massey projections:
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 8: at Denver, favorite (moved down)
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, tossup (moved down)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
As you might expect, the loss to San Francisco moved a few games down one category, most notably the post-bye game in Chicago. However, the New Orleans game didn't move back into underdog status, partly because the Saints lost as well. It's notable that the game in New Orleans is the hardest remaining home game for the Saints: the Giants game the week before (on Monday night) is 84%, Atlanta is 81%, and Tampa Bay's return visit is 82%. Detroit is 60%.
Detroit's estimated wins, according to Massey, are 11.25. Sorry I missed that last week.
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.2, down 0.6
Playoffs: 80.6%, down 9.3 points
Division title: 21.8%, down 9.7 points
Top seed: 7.2%, down 10.6 points
NFC title: 7.7%, down 4.2 points
Super Bowl win: 3.3%, down 2.2 points
15-1 record: 0.1%, down 0.7 points
Obviously there's a drop across the board, mostly due to the loss (and the subsequent rise in San Francisco's future), but also due to other results in the conference. Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Chicago all jumped at least 10 points in overall playoff chances, so that has to come from somewhere. Green Bay is disappearing into the distance, and another loss prior to Thanksgiving will virtually wrap up the division for the Packers.
This is a must-win game for the Lions (well, most of them are, in playoff terms, because you can't lose ground and you certainly can't lose to a fellow wild-card contender). One home loss is unavoidable now; two of them would be a problem. Atlanta is not impressive, and the Lions must demonstrate it. FO actually likes Atlanta better than Detroit, but I'm not buying it. Lions, 27-17.
Last week: predicted 27-24, actual 19-25
Current mood: concerned
On the other hand, Detroit did keep San Francisco in check, and even with those plays, the Lions had two chances to win, thanks in part to conservative playcalling by the 49ers. Stafford was inaccurate on too many plays, and the Lions simply couldn't recover.
Massey projections:
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 8: at Denver, favorite (moved down)
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, tossup (moved down)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
As you might expect, the loss to San Francisco moved a few games down one category, most notably the post-bye game in Chicago. However, the New Orleans game didn't move back into underdog status, partly because the Saints lost as well. It's notable that the game in New Orleans is the hardest remaining home game for the Saints: the Giants game the week before (on Monday night) is 84%, Atlanta is 81%, and Tampa Bay's return visit is 82%. Detroit is 60%.
Detroit's estimated wins, according to Massey, are 11.25. Sorry I missed that last week.
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.2, down 0.6
Playoffs: 80.6%, down 9.3 points
Division title: 21.8%, down 9.7 points
Top seed: 7.2%, down 10.6 points
NFC title: 7.7%, down 4.2 points
Super Bowl win: 3.3%, down 2.2 points
15-1 record: 0.1%, down 0.7 points
Obviously there's a drop across the board, mostly due to the loss (and the subsequent rise in San Francisco's future), but also due to other results in the conference. Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Chicago all jumped at least 10 points in overall playoff chances, so that has to come from somewhere. Green Bay is disappearing into the distance, and another loss prior to Thanksgiving will virtually wrap up the division for the Packers.
This is a must-win game for the Lions (well, most of them are, in playoff terms, because you can't lose ground and you certainly can't lose to a fellow wild-card contender). One home loss is unavoidable now; two of them would be a problem. Atlanta is not impressive, and the Lions must demonstrate it. FO actually likes Atlanta better than Detroit, but I'm not buying it. Lions, 27-17.
Last week: predicted 27-24, actual 19-25
Current mood: concerned
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 6
Yet again, first-half struggles followed by second-half dominance. It's good as long as you can repeat it, but when you can't ...
We start with Massey projections:
Week 6: San Francisco, favorite (moved down)
Week 7: Atlanta, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 8: at Denver, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, favorite (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
Again, there was a lot of movement this week, with four games moving up and the San Francisco rout moving that game down into "favorite". Note that three of the improvements are road games, including the game at New Orleans, which I think is interesting. Massey has that at 40% for Detroit, most likely a three-point loss.
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.8, unchanged
Playoffs: 89.9%, up 5.9 points
Division title: 31.5%, down 3.2 points
Top seed: 17.8%, down 2.5 points
NFC title: 11.9%, down 1.8 points
Super Bowl win: 5.5%, down 0.5 points
15-1 record: 0.8%, up 0.1 points
The playoff movement is a reaction to the win plus losses by possible competitors, while the other movement is due to Green Bay's refusal to look like anything other than a juggernaut. (The 15-1 thing, well, I can't really explain that.)
Massey gives Detroit about a 7-point edge over San Francisco. Vegas shows them as 4- to 4.5-point favorites. I think the Lions will win, but the 49ers are coming off a big win and may be a little tougher to handle than Detroit would like. The team will be prepared for this game; the one to watch is the next, where overconfidence could be an issue. Detroit, 27-24.
Last week: predicted 31-16, actual 24-13.
Current mood: cautiously optimistic
We start with Massey projections:
Week 6: San Francisco, favorite (moved down)
Week 7: Atlanta, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 8: at Denver, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, favorite (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
Again, there was a lot of movement this week, with four games moving up and the San Francisco rout moving that game down into "favorite". Note that three of the improvements are road games, including the game at New Orleans, which I think is interesting. Massey has that at 40% for Detroit, most likely a three-point loss.
The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.8, unchanged
Playoffs: 89.9%, up 5.9 points
Division title: 31.5%, down 3.2 points
Top seed: 17.8%, down 2.5 points
NFC title: 11.9%, down 1.8 points
Super Bowl win: 5.5%, down 0.5 points
15-1 record: 0.8%, up 0.1 points
The playoff movement is a reaction to the win plus losses by possible competitors, while the other movement is due to Green Bay's refusal to look like anything other than a juggernaut. (The 15-1 thing, well, I can't really explain that.)
Massey gives Detroit about a 7-point edge over San Francisco. Vegas shows them as 4- to 4.5-point favorites. I think the Lions will win, but the 49ers are coming off a big win and may be a little tougher to handle than Detroit would like. The team will be prepared for this game; the one to watch is the next, where overconfidence could be an issue. Detroit, 27-24.
Last week: predicted 31-16, actual 24-13.
Current mood: cautiously optimistic
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Lions season outlook, week 5
Again, a win is good, but struggling initially against a good team is not (assuming Dallas is a good team; if they aren't, this is worse).
First, to updated Massey projections:
Week 5: Chicago, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 6: San Francisco, heavy favorite
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight favorite (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
You won't see all the movement that actually happens because I'm not including the actual percentage each time: for that, I encourage you to visit his site. Notice that even with the close win, four games moved, including the Week 10 game flipping to a slight win for Detroit. They are underdogs in only three games now. Expected wins are now 11.8, which is almost a full win better than last week, but still well back of Green Bay. It's fair to say that 8-0 is now an expectation, especially with the next three games being home games in which Detroit is a heavy favorite. Best case is probably still 14-2, worst case is probably 10-6.
Defense adjustments make their first appearance in FO's data. The Playoff Odds report puts the Lions at 10.8 mean wins, up from last week but not by much; an 84% chance of a playoff spot, up 2.2%; 34.7% for a division title, down 4.8%; 20.3% for the #1 seed, down 4%; 13.7% for a Super Bowl appearance, down 3.3%; and 6% for a Super Bowl win, down 1.8%. They are also 0.7% to go 15-1, up 0.1%.
12-4 still seems about right, with a win at Chicago. The Oakland game might not be a loss, but then the Lions have been playing 30 minutes of good football in three of their four games and gotten away with it. At some point, they'll play a team that can play 60 minutes.
The big thing here will be to win the games they are expected to win. That's difficult for a young team, but what I like about this team is that they are not doing cartwheels for being 4-0. They seem to be approaching it like yeah, we're 4-0, we expect to win. A team like that should stay focused against weaker opponents like Chicago and San Francisco.
Massey likes the Lions by about 8.5. Vegas has Detroit between -5 and -6. I like the Lions as well, although I'll probably be in the car for half the game and asleep in my bed for the other half. Detroit, 31-16.
Current mood: hopeful
First, to updated Massey projections:
Week 5: Chicago, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 6: San Francisco, heavy favorite
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight favorite (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.
You won't see all the movement that actually happens because I'm not including the actual percentage each time: for that, I encourage you to visit his site. Notice that even with the close win, four games moved, including the Week 10 game flipping to a slight win for Detroit. They are underdogs in only three games now. Expected wins are now 11.8, which is almost a full win better than last week, but still well back of Green Bay. It's fair to say that 8-0 is now an expectation, especially with the next three games being home games in which Detroit is a heavy favorite. Best case is probably still 14-2, worst case is probably 10-6.
Defense adjustments make their first appearance in FO's data. The Playoff Odds report puts the Lions at 10.8 mean wins, up from last week but not by much; an 84% chance of a playoff spot, up 2.2%; 34.7% for a division title, down 4.8%; 20.3% for the #1 seed, down 4%; 13.7% for a Super Bowl appearance, down 3.3%; and 6% for a Super Bowl win, down 1.8%. They are also 0.7% to go 15-1, up 0.1%.
12-4 still seems about right, with a win at Chicago. The Oakland game might not be a loss, but then the Lions have been playing 30 minutes of good football in three of their four games and gotten away with it. At some point, they'll play a team that can play 60 minutes.
The big thing here will be to win the games they are expected to win. That's difficult for a young team, but what I like about this team is that they are not doing cartwheels for being 4-0. They seem to be approaching it like yeah, we're 4-0, we expect to win. A team like that should stay focused against weaker opponents like Chicago and San Francisco.
Massey likes the Lions by about 8.5. Vegas has Detroit between -5 and -6. I like the Lions as well, although I'll probably be in the car for half the game and asleep in my bed for the other half. Detroit, 31-16.
Current mood: hopeful
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Lions season outlook, Week 4
Hard to say how this changes from last week: winning is good, struggling on the road is expected against better teams but a sign of trouble against weaker teams. (Compare with the Tampa Bay game.)
First we look at Massey's predictions:
Week 4: at Dallas, slight favorite
Week 5: Chicago, favorite
Week 6: San Francisco, heavy favorite
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, tossup
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 86% (5-1), then overwhelming favorites. Reverse for underdogs.
So you can see Detroit is favored to an extent in the rest of their pre-bye games and underdogs in half of their remaining games. Their Expected Wins are 10.95: this would give them the first wild-card spot (with Green Bay winning the division). It's not unreasonable to suggest that Detroit could be 8-0 at the break; a pessimist would suggest 5-3, losing both road games plus one of Chicago/Atlanta. Overall, best-case is probably 14-2 if everything goes right; a pessimist would say 8-8.
Football Outsiders isn't showing defense-adjusted data this early in the season, but their Playoff Odds report gives Detroit 10.5 mean wins, an 81.8% shot at the playoffs, 39.5% for a division title, 24.3% for the #1 seed, 17.0% for a Super Bowl appearance, and 7.8% for a Super Bowl victory. (Also, interestingly, 0.6% for going 15-1, the second-best chance behind Green Bay.)
The way the Lions are playing, I would lean toward 12-4, with an "upset" win at Chicago and a loss in the tossup at Oakland. I don't think they beat Green Bay either place ... they need to demonstrate that they can play a great game against someone better than the Chiefs first.
Obviously all these pretty much guarantee a playoff spot (with apologies to Braves and Red Sox fans). The issue will be the Green Bay games: lose those and the division title is out of the question, and any Super Bowl hopes will rest on at least one outdoor win. Split, and the Lions could get lucky; sweep, and it's hard to picture the Lions with anything less than a bye. (We know the NFC West winner will be playing in the first round; that leaves the East and South. A Lions team that sweeps the Packers would likely be 13-3 at worst.)
On the other end, the Chicago and Atlanta games are key to a playoff appearance. You have to hold serve. (The San Francisco game, too: you can't lose to "non-contenders".) 5 or 6 wins at the break would have sounded great prior to the season, but the way things are going, that could mean a 9-win season and no playoffs. Atlanta could turn things around (especially with a win in Detroit), Tampa Bay hasn't lost since the Lions game, and the NFC East could always produce two or three 10-win teams.
Current mood: optimistic
First we look at Massey's predictions:
Week 4: at Dallas, slight favorite
Week 5: Chicago, favorite
Week 6: San Francisco, heavy favorite
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, tossup
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 86% (5-1), then overwhelming favorites. Reverse for underdogs.
So you can see Detroit is favored to an extent in the rest of their pre-bye games and underdogs in half of their remaining games. Their Expected Wins are 10.95: this would give them the first wild-card spot (with Green Bay winning the division). It's not unreasonable to suggest that Detroit could be 8-0 at the break; a pessimist would suggest 5-3, losing both road games plus one of Chicago/Atlanta. Overall, best-case is probably 14-2 if everything goes right; a pessimist would say 8-8.
Football Outsiders isn't showing defense-adjusted data this early in the season, but their Playoff Odds report gives Detroit 10.5 mean wins, an 81.8% shot at the playoffs, 39.5% for a division title, 24.3% for the #1 seed, 17.0% for a Super Bowl appearance, and 7.8% for a Super Bowl victory. (Also, interestingly, 0.6% for going 15-1, the second-best chance behind Green Bay.)
The way the Lions are playing, I would lean toward 12-4, with an "upset" win at Chicago and a loss in the tossup at Oakland. I don't think they beat Green Bay either place ... they need to demonstrate that they can play a great game against someone better than the Chiefs first.
Obviously all these pretty much guarantee a playoff spot (with apologies to Braves and Red Sox fans). The issue will be the Green Bay games: lose those and the division title is out of the question, and any Super Bowl hopes will rest on at least one outdoor win. Split, and the Lions could get lucky; sweep, and it's hard to picture the Lions with anything less than a bye. (We know the NFC West winner will be playing in the first round; that leaves the East and South. A Lions team that sweeps the Packers would likely be 13-3 at worst.)
On the other end, the Chicago and Atlanta games are key to a playoff appearance. You have to hold serve. (The San Francisco game, too: you can't lose to "non-contenders".) 5 or 6 wins at the break would have sounded great prior to the season, but the way things are going, that could mean a 9-win season and no playoffs. Atlanta could turn things around (especially with a win in Detroit), Tampa Bay hasn't lost since the Lions game, and the NFC East could always produce two or three 10-win teams.
Current mood: optimistic
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