2011: the defense in review (with special teams)

Part 3 of my season-in-review series. Yeah, things came up, so this should have been out  a couple of weeks ago, but at least free agency hasn't started yet.

DE: B

Performance: Surprisingly, the Lions' defensive line as a whole dropped off from 2010. Their ASR dropped from 7.7% to 6.5% even though they recorded only two fewer sacks: this was partly a result of not trailing nearly as often and thus seeing a lot more passes, and partly a result of ... I don't know. I would have thought the secondary had improved this year - see my comments below. Maybe the Lions just played teams with better offensive lines. Anyway, while the ends did a pretty good job, they need to get more sacks. If the goal is to contend for a Super Bowl, they have to be able to get to QBs like Rodgers and Brees, and that did not happen enough this year.

Depth here is not an issue. Vanden Bosch, Avril, Young and Jackson are all good players, meaning that the Lions can rest their speed demons and still get comparable pressure. On the other hand, their speed is occasionally an issue much as it has been in Indianapolis with Mathis and Freeney: great if the QB has the ball, not so great if he doesn't. Vanden Bosch adjusts very well to the run – the Lions were best in the league at runs around left end, allowing just 2.22 ALY per play – but Avril was susceptible to counters and draws, as Detroit's ALY at right end (from the offense's perspective) rose to 4.80, third-worst in the league.

Top priority: Obviously, re-signing unrestricted free agent Avril. My faith in his productivity was rewarded this year; even given his struggles against the run, he had a solid year, and his interception against San Diego demonstrated the athleticism that he brings to the position. One of the few players that Schwartz and Mayhew kept from the Dark Times, he's obviously the kind of player they want, so it's up to them to get him signed before the season starts. (Maybe he's figured out that if you do it just right, you can sit out the boring parts of the exhibition season.)

Other needs: Everyone else is under contract, so it's really just a matter of signing Avril. If he somehow gets away, I'm not sure how the Lions could replace him without spending the type of money that he probably wants in the first place.

DT: B

Performance: Again, generally good performance, just not enough pressure at times. The DTs' weakness was trap and wham plays, as we saw in the San Francisco game: those plays basically gave the 49ers the win. The Lions were strong against runs up the middle (3.69 ALY, 7th in the league) and on third-down plays in general, and Suh and Williams were big factors there. 

Hill was a solid backup all year; Fairley joined him once his foot was 100%. Fluellen is adequate, but works fine with the backup unit. (He'd be a liability if he had to start.)

Top priority: Suh is obviously the top starter, but it may be his contract that is the most important issue here. If he's willing to restructure it, the Lions can re-sign Avril. If not, then the Lions may have to cut Williams and hope that Fairley or Hill is ready for full-time duty.

Other needs: Figuring out whether or not Hill can be part of the rotation. He's a RFA, so the Lions have more options with him, but it may turn out that they need to cut him loose to save cap space.

LB: C

Performance: This is actually a pretty significant improvement over the last couple of years. For a change, linebackers were actually closing on the ball and making plays; sometimes they even dropped into coverage correctly. They still don't work together as a unit all the time, but this could be because, well, they haven't played much together, not with Durant and Tulloch coming in as FAs from Jacksonville and Tennessee.

At times, they seem to rely a little too much on the DL: I charted a number of plays where the LBs were passive, letting the play come up to them. Second-level yards weren't quite as much of a problem this year (1.23, 19th) as last year (1.25, 26th), but there's still improvement to be made.

Top priority: Comparing Tulloch's value to his salary demands. As an UFA, he could ask for a contract that Detroit can't afford to offer, and there may be other situations that would be better for him ... but there can't be too many of them, and I believe Schwartz made a point of pursuing him last season. I'm not sure Tulloch will dismiss that easily.

Other needs: A backup or backups, depending on the status of Bobby Carpenter, another UFA. He's contributed both as a backup and on special teams, so he's the kind of guy that could be replaced, but not as easily as people might think. Ashlee Palmer is primarily a ST guy as well, but a RFA: the Lions might choose to replace him if they don't think he can play defense more often.

CB: C-

Performance: When they were good, they seemed very, very good. When they were bad, they were awful. Houston and Wright are the kind of guys who can take advantages of mistakes, but not so much the kind that can force them. Beyond that, the Lions had below-replacement-level performance, to the point that Cunningham rarely used a dime package, even if it meant putting a LB or S on a WR.

On a number of early-season plays, the corners were beaten by taller, athletic WRs (Dez Bryant, for example). There is an argument to be made that even their better plays could be attributed more to QB mistakes (think Tony Romo), so this C- is really like the combination of an F and an A.

Top priority: Getting a good, tall corner. Eric Wright is an UFA; his confidence issues and size may mean that the Lions look elsewhere to fill his spot. Depending on what's available when they're on the clock, this could even come in the draft.

Other needs: Quality backups. Brandon McDonald is an UFA and should probably be released; Berry and Smith are still young, so maybe they'll develop into better corners, but it would be nice to have a couple of CBs on the bench who won't hurt the team if they have to start.

S: C-

Performance: Once you get beyond Delmas, the performance was questionable at best, and when he was injured late in the season, the secondary struggled. Spievey still doesn't play well enough from time to time to justify his starting role, but the lack of depth behind him was a huge issue, particularly when Delmas was out. Wendling was fine as usual on special teams, but a bit out of his element on the field, and guys like Coleman and Harris were basically just fill-ins.

Top priority: Figuring out what to do at SS. Is Spievey really the guy? He's just a third-year player, so it's not likely they'll be able to replace him with a known star, and maybe a full offseason will help him work out some of the problems I saw last season. After all, he did make some pretty good plays as well. The problem is that the Lions will likely be having cap issues the next couple of seasons, so they might be better off finding a new, young SS now rather than trying to get Spievey under the cap with a RFA contract.

Other needs: Getting players who can play on special teams and also play safety. Detroit's ST were bad enough (see below) that it's hard to recommend keeping many of the existing guys, and the play in the absence of Delmas was not good.

K: C-

Performance: I know, worse than I thought it should be, but numbers don't lie, right? Hanson was 5 of 7 from 50 or more this year, kind of: his longest made FG was 51 yards, so his age is starting to show. His one blocked kick was costly, and the efficiency of the offense meant that he had significantly fewer attempts, especially from 40-49, and going 2 of 4 from there was not good. Kicking off from the 35 helped his touchback percentage, but he just doesn't get enough height on those kicks, and the coverage team isn't good anyway, so teams returned kicks fairly well against the Lions.

Needs: A kickoff specialist, at the very least. I haven't read that Hanson was going to retire, or that Schwartz wanted to replace him, so let's assume he returns. He'll turn 42 before the season starts, so his range is going to shrink a little. He's been a great kicker for a long, long time, and kicking indoors will keep him active for a while longer, but kicking indoors would help a young, strong kicker as well.

P: C+

Performance: As with kickoffs, unimpressive at times, but unlike with kickoffs, quite impressive other times. Ryan Donahue replaced the ineffective Nick Harris and was unremarkable for eight games before going out with a season-ending injury; the Lions signed Ben Graham, who turned out to be better than he'd been in Arizona, but some of that may have been the coverage units. (Doesn't make sense, because Arizona actually improved without him, but maybe their new punter is just that much better.)

Needs: Figure out who the punter is going to be moving forward. You really can't carry four kickers, which means that the Lions will have to cut one if they're going to look for help for Hanson. Graham would be that one, given that he's an UFA and Donahue is on a rookie contract.

KR: C

Performance: Unspectacular, but not horrible. Stefan Logan was never really a threat to break one, but then he didn't make any drive-preventing errors that I recall either. Given the boom-or-bust-but-mostly-bust nature of return games, this is probably about what you can expect.

Needs: None, really. If there's a solid CB in the draft who also returns kicks, sure, give him a chance, but there's nothing wrong with a guy who'll put you near your 20 every time.

PR: D

Performance: Not much help here. Logan led the NFL with 28 fair catches, but the real story was that he was 25th in average return – that's next to last among qualified returners, ahead of only Armanti Edwards of Carolina. (Hmm. Maybe they should quit trying to play QBs at positions other than QB. Keep in mind that the Panthers thought Jimmy Clausen was a QB.) Basically, Logan had two choices: not much yardage or no yards at all.

Needs: Better blocking, and perhaps a returner more suited to punt returns. No, Patrick Peterson won't be available in the second round, but the Lions could sure use someone with better broken-field running skills than Logan.

2011: the offense in review

Part 2 of a series looking at the season that just completed and what might be expected from the season to come. Here, I focus on the talent at each position, and what I think should be done for 2012.

QB: A-

Performance: I know ... A- for a 5000-yard season? Well, remember that Stafford threw the third-most passes in NFL history. Counting stats must always be read in context. Certainly, Stafford's first full season looked much more like a #1 overall pick than what we saw in his partial seasons, in no small part, I think, due to the strength training he did in the offseason. He took a lot of hits in 2011 as well, but got up after each one of them, and ended up missing very few snaps. (Hill threw 3 passes; I don't think Stanton ever played.)

On the other hand, Stafford still got rattled after bad throws, particularly in the game at Chicago, and still tries to force the ball into coverage. With Calvin Johnson on the receiving end, sometimes that's OK, and at his best, Stafford has the ability to fit the ball into a ball-sized window. He's not always at his best, though. Sometimes it's better to take a sack (something he did better in 2011 than in 2010) or to throw it away.

Top priority: What he did last year. Maybe work more with the younger receivers (Pettigrew, Young) to develop the same kind of rapport he has with Johnson. Think of the Colts as an example. Manning had a #1 target (Harrison or Wayne or Clark), but also had other receivers he could trust to be a certain place at a certain time, and it made their offense nearly unstoppable. If Stafford can get the WRs and TEs on the same page, this could be a similar offense.

Other needs: It would help to re-sign one of the backups; both Hill and Stanton filled in well in 2010. It's probably not possible to re-sign both for reasonable money due to their experience. Hill will be 32, Stanton will be 28, so there's that, but I think Hill is more capable of running a full-throttle offense than Stanton.

RB: C

Performance: Despite the wide variance in playing time and usage, Smith, Best, and Morris all had comparable DYAR (48, 46, and 37 respectively). Smith's raw stats look pretty good until you realize that he played mostly against teams with bad run defenses (17.1% VOA, 7.2% DVOA). All three backs had higher DYAR on the receiving side (Best 65, Morris 64, Smith 64), and each back posted a receiving DVOA above 17% (Smith and Morris were above 25%).

Obviously, the absence of Leshoure was felt from Week 1, and when Best went out (again) with concussion problems, the Lions had to scramble. If Smith hadn't been available via FA, the back situation would have been grim. Morris is a change-up back, not a starter, and Keiland Williams is an adequate big back for a team with a good OL. Detroit is not that team.

Top priority: Opening training camp with two strong, healthy backs. Leshoure's status will be almost completely unknown until camp begins: there was some research done with respect to older players and Achilles injuries, but even those are nearly anecdotal, and of course it's impossible to separate an injury-recovery decline in performance from an age-related decline in performance. Leshoure is obviously younger than NFL peak age, so he could, potentially, return at good strength in 2012, although he may not be 100% until 2013.

Best, on the other hand, has played two injury-filled seasons in the NFL following a concussion-filled college career. With the richly-deserved focus on concussions in today's game, it's entirely possible that Best will never be able to play at the level the Lions hoped he would when they drafted him in 2010. (To be clear, I'm glad if this happens, because it'll mean it's not safe for him to play and thus he won't be allowed to risk his health. In the past, they'd have thrown him out there, let him rack up concussions, and cut him when he couldn't think straight any more.)

Smith is a free agent, but remember that RB is a fungible position, and he also has a history of injury. If he'll sign for a reasonable price, get him, but if not, don't be afraid to go back to the draft, or to look for a low-priced FA.

Other needs: None, really. Morris is replacement-level at best and probably not worth re-signing. Jerome Harrison obviously has more important things on his mind right now than football. The Lions can grab younger backs if they need to fill out their roster.

WR: B+

Performance: Calvin Johnson led the NFL with 586 DYAR, topping WRs with 16 TDs (tied for 14th all-time) and the NFL with 1681 receiving yards (7th all-time, but only second in Detroit history behind Herman Moore's 1681). The one thing that could probably be improved is his catch rate, 61%, but a) that's his career high (up from 57% last season), b) it's affected by the long passes thrown to him (33% last season were either Deep passes or Bombs), and c) it's also affected by the point in the season where defensive coordinators realized that single coverage was not the way to play Megatron. (You should know by now that any coach whose last name is Ryan is not given to intelligent comments. He wasn't that far off, though: Laurent Robinson was 3rd in DVOA, ahead of Megatron, and Dez Bryant was 13th ... but significantly behind Johnson. Suffice it to say that even at the time, Ryan's remark was obviously trolling. Give Titus Young a couple of seasons, and Megatron could post stats that even Ryan would appreciate.) So let's not dwell on that 61%. Megatron had a spectacular season.

Once Young became a part of the offense, he quickly developed into a threat, catching four or more passes in each of the Lions' last four games and scoring a total of 4 TDs in those games. His catch rate is low (56%), but he's young and has a high ceiling, so he should take over the #2 role from Burleson next season. Burleson, like Young, had a slightly negative DVOA (-4.5% to Young's -1.6%), but is a good fit as a secondary receiver in this offense. Expect him to become even more of a possession receiver with Young's emergence.

Top priority: Keep Johnson healthy and happy. Until another receiver emerges as an adequate complement, Johnson is what makes the receiving corps dangerous.

Other needs: Again, none, really. Johnson-Young-Burleson is a fine group to have, and all are under contract. The only free agents are ST-quality receivers, and that's another section.

TE: B

Performance: Brandon Pettigrew's counting stats were up slightly, but his performance dropped a bit; like Young and Burleson, he had a slightly negative DVOA (-2.2%). Tony Scheffler wasn't used nearly as often (43 passes to 126 toward Pettigrew), but was far more productive, with a 24.6% DVOA (8th among TEs) and 96 DYAR (vs. 30 for Pettigrew). Scheffler's ability to make spectacular catches makes you wonder why he wasn't on the field more often ... until you realize that Detroit doesn't use a lot of empty sets, and using 2 TEs means the third WR has to come off. His low catch rate (60%) was probably a factor as well.

Pettigrew has a couple of areas for improvement: YAC and penalties. For all his size, Pettigrew doesn't seem to get through tackles often, averaging less than 4 YAC, but that wasn't as big of a deal as the penalties. He led the NFL in false starts among non-linemen (there is, of course, no source for this; I just recall hearing it during a broadcast), and of course had that personal foul late in the season.)

Will Heller was mostly used as a FB and blocking TE; he fills in well enough in both roles.

Top priority: Getting the most out of Pettigrew. If he can improve his performance, his size and skills will make him a very dangerous target.

Other needs: None, really. If Young emerges as a clear #2 WR, then Linehan can do more of the 12 package (1 RB/2 TEs) that the Lions used last season, with either or both TEs flexing out and with Scheffler occasionally lining up as a WR.

OT: C-

Performance: Ah, now we get to the criticism. When the tackles were good, they were decent; when they were bad, they were awful. Backus deserves a ton of credit for surviving the Dark Times and not missing a game (take that, QB-consecutive-games-played people), but he's obviously past his prime, and he's no longer capable of doing more than slowing down elite pass rushers. Unfortunately, Jared Allen and Clay Matthews are in the same division, which means at least one-fourth of the Lions' games are against teams with elite speed rushers. Gosder Cherilus is young, but old enough that he's probably reached his potential, which isn't much better than Backus' level of play. In fact, Detroit had much worse ALY at right end (2.44) than at left end (3.67). The Lions had a solid ASR of 5.9%, but of course some of that is from Stafford getting rid of the ball quickly; who knows how much higher it would have been if Detroit had good OTs?

Top priority: Getting a good LT to protect Stafford. If there is an immediate starter at #23 (much later than Schwartz is accustomed to picking), they need to take him. It may even be worth trading up to get one. There are no FAs who are both healthy and good, so looking at, say, Jared Gaither or Demetrius Bell may not be worth the money they'd cost.

Other needs: Backus is a FA; he's only worth re-signing if he'll take backup money. He could be a good mentor for a rookie LT. A replacement for Cherilus would be nice, but it's unlikely the Lions can find two starting-caliber tackles in one offseason. Corey Hilliard is a competent backup (actually outplaying Cherilus for stretches in 2010), and as a RFA, he could be worth re-signing.

G: B-

Performance: Not bad, actually. Rob Sims was a serviceable LG, and Stephen Peterman turned out to be better than I thought he would be. Detroit's highest ALY, by far, was through right tackle, 4.22, and Peterman deserves some credit for that. Both guards seem to do an adequate job of pulling, although the line as a unit doesn't play well enough for that to work every time.

Top priority: Figuring out if Carl Nicks can fit under the cap, lol. He's available, so it would be crazy not to ask. Barring that, the Lions should probably stick with what they have. There are more urgent needs elsewhere.

Other needs: Young backups. Leonard Davis is a free agent, but he's old and seldom used. Pick up a late-round player or an undrafted FA for depth.

C: C-

Performance: Like Backus, Dominic Raiola cut his teeth during the Dark Times (although unlike Backus, he had the temerity to miss a game or two). Like Backus, he's at the point where he's no longer a starting-caliber player. If he's responsible for line calls, then he's doing that well, as there were not many plays I saw where the protection itself was an issue (it was more individual blocking), and that's not easily dismissed, but he occasionally got run over by bigger DL.

Top priority: Figuring out if Scott Wells can fit under the cap. (Yes, I am suggesting poaching OL from the Lions' top NFC opponents. Hell yes.) There are a couple of other quality centers out there, but if Detroit can't land one, they at least need to draft a young guy who can replace Raiola in the near future.

Other needs: Probably none. Whether or not they sign a FA, they need a backup. If they do sign a FA, Raiola will probably be the backup, unless they can afford the cap hit to release him. (Even then, they may not. It would not go over very well to just dump him by the wayside.) If they draft a center, obviously the rookie would be the backup.

Coming next: the defense and what little I know about special teams.

2011: the season in review

Now that the season is over, it's time to take a look back and review it in detail, both from what things seemed like at the time and how they look now.

Overall, of course, the season was a huge success.

• 10 regular-season wins, beaten only by the '91 Lions (12-4) and the '31 Spartans and '62 Lions (both 11-3). 
• A team-record 474 points (yes, even in points per game; the highest-scoring team playing 14 games was the '70 Lions, they of the 5-0 loss to Dallas in the first-ever NFC wild-card game, scoring 347 points). 
• A point difference of 87, tenth-best. The best ever by a Lions team was +179 by the '34 Lions: scoring 238, giving up just 59 (in a 13-game season!). Unfortunately, they were in the wrong division. The Bears went 13-0, including back-to-back wins over the Lions to clinch the division (19-16 and 10-7), and then lost the NFL championship to New York. (The Lions would get revenge in '35, going 1-0-1 against Chicago and beating the Giants for their first NFL title.)
• Records of almost every kind with respect to passing: Stafford's 421 completions, 663 attempts, 63.5% completions, 5038 yards, 41 TDs; Johnson's 16 TD receptions. (Johnson's 1681 receiving yards were second to Herman Moore's 1686 in 1995 ... and Moore had 27 more receptions.) Hanson's 54 extra points were also a record.

The comebacks were nice; another comeback in the wild-card game at New Orleans would have been nice, too, but it wasn't to be. Maybe next season ...

Game 1: Detroit 27 at Tampa Bay 20

At the time: A big win on the road over a 2010 playoff contender. A 17-0 run gave the Lions a lead they'd hold through a Buccaneer comeback.
Now: Unimpressive. Tampa Bay finished a lackluster 4-12 and gave up nearly 500 points, yet Detroit managed just 27 points and had to hold off a late comeback to preserve a 7-point win. Detroit fumbled four times, but was fortunate to recover all of them.

Game 2: Kansas City 3 at Detroit 48

At the time: A rout of a 2010 division winner: six Kansas City turnovers, only 116 yards net passing, a game under control from start to finish. The Lions are an impressive 2-0.
Now: Less impressive, but still solid. A 45-point win is good no matter who the opponent is. The Chiefs finished just 7-9 (and, like Tampa Bay, fired their coach), but then again, they did manage to beat Green Bay, and the Lions couldn't do that. Matt Cassel and his backups never established a good passing game, so the 116 wasn't as good as it may have seemed.

Game 3: Detroit 26 at Minnesota 23, OT

At the time: A huge comeback on the road against a division rival. The Vikings and Lions both finished 2010 at 6-10, and both had hopes for 2011. Winning in the Metrodome meant that the Lions, for a change, were the team with an advantage.
Now: Significantly less impressive. Donovan McNabb turned out to be a huge bust - or perhaps he was simply in a no-win situation. Minnesota slumped to 3-13, making this game look more like a problem for the Lions than the big win it seemed to be. Detroit's failure to move the ball in the first half, to establish a running game, and to keep Jared Allen out of the backfield would all be repeating themes.

Game 4: Detroit 34 at Dallas 30

At the time: Another huge comeback on the road; at 4-0, with three road wins, the Lions suddenly look like a playoff team. Sure, Dallas was 6-10 in 2010, but they looked pretty good at this point. Unlike the Minnesota game, this one relied on help from the Cowboys: two interception returns for TDs.
Now: About the same. Dallas went 8-8 and just missed the playoffs, but again, lack of first-half offense without turnovers to blame meant that Detroit was starting to establish a pattern of struggling early.

Game 5: Chicago 13 at Detroit 24

At the time: In a long-awaited return to Monday night, the Lions slog through a penalty-filled game to hold off the defending division champs and NFC runners-up. At 5-0, they're a legitimate Super Bowl contender, or so we think.
Now: Hard to say. Again, the offense struggled, and obviously there were discipline problems with respect to penalties that never went away, but until Cutler got hurt, the Bears were on track for the #5 seed. With that in mind, this was a significant win for the Lions even in retrospect.

Game 6: San Francisco 25 at Detroit 19

At the time: A disappointing loss. The Lions are plus-2 in turnovers and hold San Francisco to 125 yards passing, but blow a fourth-quarter lead and fail to defeat a team, like them, coming off a 6-10 season and looking for more. The loss was more painful because it was at home, and Atlanta, not San Francisco, was supposed to be the challenge following the Chicago game.
Now: More understandable, but still disappointing. Flip this game around and Detroit becomes the #5, San Francisco becomes the #3, and who knows what's different? Still, the 49ers played a truly poor game and the Lions could not take advantage of it. Stafford could not move the ball well enough against a good defense.

Game 7: Atlanta 23 at Detroit 16

At the time: Understandable. The defending #1 seed shakes off a rough start to the season and keeps the Lions at bay the entire game. Again, Detroit struggles against a good defense.
Now: Very costly and less understandable. This was the game that knocked Detroit into the spot opposite the Saints. Atlanta's defense is still pretty good, but the Falcons turned out to be Detroit's peers, and the Lions should have been able to win this one. Inability to beat contending teams made the difference between 10-6 and maybe 13-3 ... keeping in mind that they could also have been 7-9 without those comebacks.

Game 8: Detroit 45 at Denver 10

At the time: A much-needed win, moving the Lions back toward a playoff spot. Untested Tim Tebow is ravaged by the Lions' defense, giving Detroit 14 points off turnovers and failing to generate much offense himself. Denver does get 195 yards on the ground, which is a concern.
Now: The 2-5 Broncos finish 8-8, win the division, and upset a shaky Pittsburgh team in the playoffs, making this win look pretty significant. Looking back, a 4-0 start on the road from a franchise that twice spent 3 years looking for a road win ... and notching two of those wins over playoff contenders (their fifth and final road win would come against Oakland, another contender), well ... even if all the contenders were .500 teams, that's still a lot of progress.

Game 9: Detroit 13 at Chicago 37

At the time: A humiliating blowout that put Green Bay out of reach and began to put the Lions' playoff possibilities in question. A series of poor decisions by Stafford and Detroit's special teams gave the Bears all they needed to secure a much-needed win.
Now: Not so bad considering the Bears' trajectory at the time. Keeping in mind that 14 points came from interception returns and 7 from a punt return, it certainly wasn't the defense that was at fault. Still, we see the same problems that we saw earlier: inability to move the ball against a good defense, and bad decision-making leading to points for the other team.

Game 10: Carolina 35 at Detroit 49

At the time: One horrible quarter-plus followed by two-ish quarters of very impressive offensive football. The Panthers' defense was as bad as advertised, but the Lions gave up way too much and should not have had to mount such a comeback.
Now: Somewhat understandable given the Panthers' 6-10 record, but turnovers and special teams (the only two returns for TDs the Lions gave up in the kicking game happened during these two games) put Detroit in a spot they shouldn't have been in.

Game 11: Green Bay 27 at Detroit 15

At the time: Missed opportunities. Turnovers and penalties. The Lions slowed the Packers enough to give themselves chances to win, but failed to take advantage when they could, and thus endeth the shot at a division title. Some of it could be blamed on injuries, but that was only on defense: the offense, other than at RB, was basically untouched.
Now: Just the same. All six Detroit losses came against playoff contenders: most losses were like this one, where you could see this was an improved Lions team, but also that they were simply not good enough to win these games. The absence of Louis Delmas made the secondary a concern, and guys like Alphonso Smith and Chris Harris played roles they really weren't good enough to play. Maybe that put too much pressure on the offense, but then a winning team can pull out games like that. Detroit, in 2011, did not.

Game 12: Detroit 17 at New Orleans 31

At the time: Better than Indianapolis-New England? Maybe not. Three second-quarter touchdowns put the game out of reach: the Lions couldn't cover the Saints' receivers and couldn't pressure Brees.
Now: No different. New Orleans showed they were clearly better, at least better than a Detroit team with a banged-up secondary. Even looking at this as a throwaway game for the Lions (odds of winning in New Orleans? low), at some point, you'd like your team to play well against an elite team, and it never really happened for Schwartz.

Game 13: Minnesota 28 at Detroit 34

At the time: Again, the Lions have to hold off a weak opponent in Ford Field. A missed face-mask call means Detroit forces a fumble on the final play to preserve a win; the Lions are plus-6 (!!) in turnover margin but struggle all game to move the ball. Is the offense going to be strong enough to get the Lions into the playoffs?
Now: Worse than at the time. This should have been a rout, but the offense produces just 20 points, and the defense gives up 269 yards rushing to a team that was one of the worst in the NFC. Perhaps this game showed the need to upgrade at both tackle positions: neither Backus nor Cherilus can hold off speed rushers well enough to move the ball effectively, and that's on a team with a QB who threw for over 5000 yards.

Game 14: Detroit 28 at Oakland 27

At the time: A dramatic comeback, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat yet again, and on the road in a hostile environment against a playoff contender. Calvin Johnson's monster game keeps Detroit in the driver's seat for a wild-card spot.
Now: A little less impressive given Oakland's face plant against San Diego, but still ... while the defense was wholly unimpressive, the offense did just enough to make up for it, and several teams rode that mix to a home playoff game (New England, Green Bay, New Orleans).

Game 15: San Diego 10 at Detroit 38

At the time: The Lions seal a playoff spot by rolling the Chargers, knocking San Diego out of contention. Up 24-0 at halftime, Detroit can just cruise to a win.
Now: A little more impressive given San Diego's win over Oakland in Week 17, and perhaps also because it was a win they needed to lock up a wild-card spot. Those wins aren't always easy for teams that aren't used to the playoffs.

Game 16: Detroit 41 at Green Bay 45

Now: Inexplicable. With several key players resting, Green Bay forced the usual array of turnovers and penalties that have been characteristic of Lions' losses. Instead of a game at New York or Dallas, the Lions get another trip to New Orleans, and that one ends about as well as you'd expect.

Wild-card: Detroit 28 at New Orleans 45

Now: Pretty impressive, given that in their first meeting, the Saints dunked the Lions right away and wouldn't stop until the lifeguard came over and yelled at them. Detroit actually led at halftime, 14-10 – 10 points for the Saints in one half! – and trailed only 24-21 at the end of three. New Orleans converted three fourth-down opportunities, and those made the difference: the Lions never forced a punt. In addition to OT, Detroit must upgrade at CB and SS. The NFL is a passing league, so you have to have a secondary that either makes big plays (GB) or simply doesn't allow you to make them (Hou, Bal). Another year of experience for Suh, Fairley, and Avril (who must be re-signed) should also help.

Overall, 10-6 and a playoff spot is a big step up, and for the first time since maybe the '50s, the Lions also have a legitimate reason to look for improvement beyond this. They have young talent at QB, WR, TE, DE, DT, and FS, and with healthy RBs and an improved OL and secondary, they could challenge for the NFC crown next year.

Schwartz and Mayhew deserve a lot of credit for what they've done, particularly with respect to Stafford. It's just one season at this point, but there is a huge difference between the way he was playing this year, even in the last two games, and how he played in previous seasons. With another year under his belt, and with a full training camp ahead of him, he should be posting some solid numbers in 2012 as well.

Lions season outlook, wild-card round

So McCarthy did rest a number of starters, and yet the Lions' defense, not the offense, was the guilty party in the resulting loss. With Rodgers, Starks, and Jennings on the bench, the Packers still rolled up 45 points on what was supposed to be one of the better defenses in the NFL in a game that meant so much more to the Lions than the Packers. Of course the Falcons crushed a Tampa Bay team that soon-to-be-ex-coach Raheem Morris had lost weeks ago, so now Detroit travels to New Orleans and the Falcons play the Giants.

Massey gives the Lions a 22% chance to beat New Orleans, so that makes them heavy underdogs, and that sounds about right. The overall path to the Super Bowl, if there is one, probably doesn't change much: assuming New Orleans would beat Atlanta, the Lions would have faced Green Bay in the divisional playoff round if they beat New York, and of course that's who they'll play if they manage to pull off this upset. I do think the Giants are an easier team for the Lions to beat, but that doesn't matter now.

The Playoff Odds report for the wild-card round:

NFC championship appearance: 11.0%, 5th in NFC/8th overall
NFC title: 4.4%, down 0.2 points
Super Bowl win: 2.1%, unchanged

Cincinnati gets a team hoping not to play its fourth-string quarterback. Detroit gets a team with a guy who just set a few NFL records. (Of course, he also plays for the only team to lose a playoff game to a team with a losing record, so there's that.) The Lions were missing three key defensive players in the earlier matchup on Sunday night, and they were never really in the game. That was partly because the offense couldn't find a rhythm in the noisy Superdome, and that aspect won't change today. Suh is, of course, back from suspension, and both Houston and Delmas should play; Mark Ingram is, to my knowledge, the only notable injury for New Orleans. (UPDATE: after I published this, Lance Moore was declared out for the Saints. So now they're down to eleventy-minus-one receivers.) The Lions will need all three to contribute if they are to pull off the upset. Detroit has to get pressure on Brees, they have to keep Stafford upright, and they can't afford to give away points on special teams.

It would take magic for the Lions to win this game, and this year, I think the magic is in just being in the playoffs. Saints, 34-17.

Last week: predicted 20-17, actual 41-45

Current mood: just happy to be here

Lions season outlook, week 17 and beyond

A rout of San Diego puts the Lions in the playoffs, and a New Orleans rout of Atlanta gives Detroit the #5 seed for now. The opening line for the Detroit-Green Bay game was Packers -1.5, but that's already shifted to Detroit -3.5 ... clearly Las Vegas or bettors (or both) see McCarthy resting his starters in a mostly-meaningless game for the Packers. Atlanta plays a late game, so they'll know at kickoff whether or not they have a shot at the #5 seed.

Massey projections:
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.


We'll have to wait for next week to find out more ... Massey's new layout makes it really hard to draw any conclusions. Sagarin has the Lions as a slight favorite against either Dallas or the Giants and a 6- to 6.5-point underdog against New Orleans or San Francisco, so that #5 seed is a big deal.

The Playoff Odds report for Week 17:

Mean wins: 10.2, up 0.3
NFC title: 4.6%, up 1.3 points
Super Bowl win: 2.1%, up 0.7 points

Obviously a playoff spot is secured, and that probably is the cause for the increase in NFC and Super Bowl title chances.

The Lions didn't struggle at all last week. It was 24-0 at halftime, and San Diego was never really close. I believe Detroit will have the same focus on the road, even if in front of a hostile crowd and likely in inclement weather. (Weather Underground says otherwise, though.) I'll assume that the Packers don't play Rodgers much, if at all. Detroit will move the ball fairly well, and Flynn won't do nearly as well against a fired-up defense. It won't be easy, but the Lions will lock down the #5 seed. Twenty years ago, they had a similar situation, but it was for the division title and a first-round bye, and it was against the AFC's #1 seed, the Bills. With Kelly, Thomas, and Reed on the sidelines, Buffalo was still able to hold down Barry Sanders and company, but Detroit stole a win in overtime, 17-14, finishing 12-4 (still a franchise record for regular-season wins) and setting the stage for their only playoff win in modern history. There will be no playoff home game, barring some crazy upsets (right, Colts fans?), but still ... Lions, 20-17.

Last week: predicted 31-26, actual 38-10

Current mood: ready for this "playoffs" thing I've heard so much about

Lions season outlook, week 16

Yet again, another close call. Yet again, it came down to the final play, and yes, a 65-yard field goal is still a viable attempt if Sebastian Janikowski is your kicker. The Lions held on, though, and escaped Oakland with a huge win. Instead of being just a game ahead of the sub-wild-card pack, Detroit is now two games up, with their magic number being 1 ... a Lions win, or a loss by each of the teams that don't have a tiebreaker edge over Detroit (Seattle, Chicago, and Arizona), will give them a wild-card spot. Two wins plus at least one Atlanta loss will give them the #5 seed and an "easier" game at the NFC East champion. (Of course if it's Dallas, the Lions already have good memories from a road game there.)

Massey projections:
Week 16: San Diego, slight favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog (moved up)

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

San Diego remains about the same thanks to the Chargers' renaissance. Green Bay drops a little, but of course that is assuming the starters play the entire way. They likely won't, as the Packers should crush the injured Bears and clinch the top seed next week. Without a perfect season at stake, the last game should be meaningless.

Unfortunately, Massey's site has changed, and expected wins are no longer available.

The Playoff Odds report for Week 16:

Mean wins: 9.9, up 0.5
Playoffs: 85.6%, up 11.5 points
NFC title: 3.3%, up 0.9 points
Super Bowl win: 1.4%, up 0.4 points


Winning a 50/50 game gives you an extra half-win. Chicago's collapse is complete, the Giants throw away wild-card hopes, so it's up to Seattle to make a wild-card run. (They have most of the remaining playoff hopes at 10.9%.)

The Lions did struggle against the Raiders' defense, except when it came to Calvin Johnson, and that seems to be a Mrs. Lincoln situation. The Lions were lucky to hold on for the win. Fortunately, they'll be at home this week, but unfortunately, San Diego has figured out how to play again. Instead of an easy win, this should be a close game. I believe Detroit will clinch a playoff win at home, though. Lions, 31-26.

Last week: predicted 24-14, actual 28-27

Current mood: excited

Lions season outlook, week 15

That was close. For a few minutes, it looked like the Lions would throw away an opportunity to move toward their first playoff spot in 12 seasons (an opportunity, as it turned out, to make up ground on every NFC wild-card contender except Atlanta). Fortunately, the refs helped Detroit on the final play, and instead of getting an embarrassing loss to a weak team with a third-string QB, the Lions hang on to pick up their 8th win, something that hasn't happened since 2000. It's turtles all the way down from here, though: one important game followed by another important game ...

Massey projections:
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, slight favorite (moved down)
Week 17: at Green Bay, overwhelming underdog (moved down)

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

San Diego drops again as the Chargers seem less likely to have thrown the season away and Detroit nearly loses a game they should have won easily. Green Bay does slide, as I thought it would. Expected wins are up a tick to 9.28, which is unusual given that two of their three remaining games dropped in probability.

The Playoff Odds report is below, and this time, it's just the injury-adjusted version:

Mean wins: 9.4, up 0.2
Playoffs: 74.1%, up 8.1 points
NFC title: 2.4%, down 0.1 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, unchanged


Nothing unusual here: Chicago and Dallas rocket downward, with Atlanta and Detroit the beneficiaries. NFC and Super Bowl chances are unlikely to change much, if at all.

Stafford did not carve up the Minnesota secondary. Jared Allen did cry about the officiating, but in this case, his complaints were justified: that was absolutely a face mask penalty that went uncalled, and bad calls in game X don't justify bad calls in game Y. Still, the defense swarmed Ponder and Webb (6 turnovers, 4 sacks, 2 touchdowns – I really should have started them) and built a big enough lead to give Detroit the chance to hold on when the second half, for a change, did not go their way. That should happen this week as well. Carson Palmer has played just one good defense, and he actually had a decent day against Chicago ... but he's thrown 3 or more picks in three of his seven games, all of which came against teams with average to below-average pass defenses. Detroit's pass defense is second in the league. If Houston or Delmas is healthy, this could be ugly for Oakland; if the Lions aren't careful, though, they could struggle against the Raiders' defense. (Oakland does give up a lot on the ground, but with Kevin Smith injured, the Lions would have no one to take advantage of that.) I think they will be careful, and I think Detroit's defense will give them their ninth win of the season. Lions, 24-14.

Last week: predicted 37-21, actual 34-28

Current mood: cautiously optimistic

Lions season outlook, week 14

So that was the last of the bonus games, the ones the Lions probably weren't going to win. The rest are games they probably need to win, possibly including the season finale (the one where Green Bay will have clinched everything and should be resting their starters). With Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, and the Giants losing, Detroit could have been in a really nice position with a win, but whatever.

Massey projections:
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, favorite (moved down)
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

The San Diego game flips and the Green Bay game is about to move to overwhelming. Still, Detroit is favored in three of its four remaining games. Expected wins are down to 9.24, once again dropping after a loss. (Those "partial" wins – the games in which the Lions are not favored – have a more noticeable impact later in the season.)

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.2, down 0.5
Playoffs: 58.2%, up 5.8 points
NFC title: 2.3%, up 0.3 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, up 0.3 points

Again, the mean wins drop due to Detroit not winning a game they had a reasonable chance of winning. The division title is effectively out of reach, but the playoff chances spike because of Chicago's unexpected loss to Kansas City.

Next, playoff odds reflecting the loss of key QBs:

Mean wins: 9.2, same
Playoffs: 66.0%, 7.8 points higher
NFC title: 2.5%, 0.2 points higher
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, same

The playoff odds jump is a reflection of Hanie's struggles. Kansas City was crushed by Detroit; the Bears should have done the same.

The Lions did dig themselves a big first-half hole and did not climb out of it; I got basically everything right about that game. Unfortunately for Detroit, injuries on defense continue to pile up. Suh will be suspended for this game as well, and if neither Delmas nor Houston can play, the Lions will have backups in too many positions to be able to pressure Ponder as they'd like to, especially if Fairley misses any time. (He probably wasn't 100% in the first place.) Still, with Peterson either out or just returning after a high ankle sprain, an injury that really affects RBs, Minnesota won't be quite the same team they were early in the season. Ponder's much better than McNabb was, but he's still inexperienced, and the Lions will be looking to take advantage of his mistakes. The beleaguered Vikings defense won't have a home crowd to support them: look for Jared Allen to cry about officiating as Stafford carves up their secondary. Lions, 37-21.

Last week: predicted 20-31, actual 17-31

Current mood: expecting something decent

Lions season outlook, week 13

The one Sunday each year where I'm guaranteed not to have to worry about the Lions playing. Of course, it turns out to be a Sunday where the only game I picked wrong was my 1-point game. (I also picked Detroit to beat Green Bay because why not? I still won this week. Back off.) Detroit had its chances, but once again, they made too many mistakes against a better team. A win would have been huge, but instead, they're faced with the prospect of falling a game behind Chicago and Atlanta with both teams having tiebreaker advantages against them.

Massey projections:
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite (moved down)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

Trending down because of the loss and other teams' performances. Minnesota and Green Bay are both in the 85-86 range (in opposite directions, of course). San Diego is on the verge of being an overwhelming underdog. Expected wins are down to 9.64, and that will probably fall again if the Saints win Sunday night, as is expected given their dominant performance Monday night against the Giants.

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.7, down 0.6
Playoffs: 52.4%, down 14.6 points
Division title: 0.1%, down 5.0 points
NFC title: 2.0%, down 1.7 pointsSuper Bowl win: 0.7%, down 0.9 points

The mean wins drop due to Detroit not winning a game they had a roughly 50-50 chance of winning; the division and top-seed odds plummet because the loss locks Detroit out of first, barring some forfeits; the rest simply reflects a Detroit loss. They can't afford many more of those.

Again, playoff odds reflecting the loss of key QBs:

Mean wins: 9.6, 0.1 lower
Playoffs: 55.1%, 2.7 points higher
Division title: 0.1%, same
NFC title: 1.9%, 0.1 points lower
Super Bowl win: 0.9%, 0.2 points higher

Similar to last week, with the playoff odds higher because of Cutler and the Super Bowl odds higher because of Schaub and now Leinart. Not sure why the mean wins are lower.

I thought it would be a shootout, but the defenses stood tall, especially Green Bay's. If that isn't the case Sunday night, this could get ugly. The one blowout loss this year came in a game when 21 points were scored without the defense on the field; the Lions have yet to be rolled by an offense. Of course, they haven't faced a strong offense on the road since the Dallas game, and in that game, they were terrible in the first half. I don't think New Orleans will help them out in the second. Saints, 31-20.

Last week: predicted 24-39, actual 15-27

Current mood: expecting the worst

Lions season outlook, week 12

Back to the early-season script: first-half mistakes, second-half domination. What's troubling is that this was one of the worst defenses in football, and Detroit gave them opportunities over and over again. (I didn't see the game, so I don't know how much was Carolina playing well defensively and how much was Detroit making silly mistakes.)

Massey projections:
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

No significant changes, and that will probably be the case the rest of the way. Weeks 12 and 13 move to the other side of the line (41% and 87%, both a tick or two away from reverting.) Estimated wins are 10.3, down just a touch. Again, Weeks 14-16 will be the keys; a win over New Orleans would be huge, and of course an upset of Green Bay on Thanksgiving, well ...

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.3, up 0.5
Playoffs: 67.0%, up 4.7 points
Division title: 5.1%, up 1.4 points
Top seed: 0.8%, up 0.2 points
NFC title: 3.7%, up 0.9 points
Super Bowl win: 1.6%, up 0.6 points

The Lions benefit somewhat from the Giants' loss to Philadelphia. New York's remaining schedule will likely drop them out of playoff contention, which is better than having Dallas stick around in the wild-card race (even though Detroit has the head-to-head win, that only applies if they finish with the same record.

The injury to Cutler may be significant, though. Let's take a look at the Playoff Odds with an estimate of the loss of Cutler (as well as Schaub and Cassel in the AFC):

Mean wins: 10.3, same
Playoffs: 69.8%, 2.8 points higher
Division title: 4.9%, 0.2 points lower
Top seed: 0.8%, same
NFC title: 3.6%, 0.1 points lower
Super Bowl win: 1.7%, 0.1 points higher

The higher playoff chances are from Chicago's chances dropping a bit; the smaller shot at the division is because Chicago still has a game left against Green Bay, and that hypothetical scenario requires the Packers to lose at least one more game (assuming Detroit sweeps them; obviously at least a split would be required). The Super Bowl chances are probably due to the prospect of facing Houston without Schaub.

So I got the offensive part right, but didn't count on the defense being put in untenable positions time and again against a solid offense. This time, it'll be much the same, except the defense will be better and the offense will be much better. It's a strange situation. On the one hand, no one expects the Lions to win. On the other hand, to be the best, eventually you have to beat the best. Detroit obviously isn't the best team in the league this season and probably isn't close, but a win Thursday would certainly be a big step back toward respectability. I just don't see it happening if Rodgers stays healthy. Packers, 34-29.

Last week: predicted 37-17, actual 49-35

Current mood: expecting the worst

Lions season outlook, week 11

While the score may have been surprising, keep in mind that 21 points came from the defense and special teams. The Bears' offense played about as well as you'd expect; credit goes to the Chicago defense, but those touchdowns aren't predictors of future performance. Massey's estimate of "slight underdog" was probably applicable here.

Massey projections:
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog (moved down)
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite (moved down)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

Essentially the opposite of last week, with the Green Bay game moving as well. Estimated wins are 10.4, so a little less than a full game down from last week. Still a decent shot at playoffs, but the Lions have used up their free games: they'll have to win the games in which they're favored to have a decent shot.

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.8, down 0.7
Playoffs: 62.3%, down 17.2 points
Division title: 3.7%, down 9.2 points
Top seed: 0.6%, down 2.9 points
NFC title: 2.8%, down 4.0 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, down 2.4 points

The loss to Chicago essentially removes any remaining chance of winning the division and getting the top seed; the NFC and Super Bowl odds drop as Detroit shows an inability to beat contenders on the road. Playoffs are still in the picture, but as with Massey's projections, the Lions need to hold serve at home and also win at Oakland.

As mentioned last week, this wasn't a killer, but it sure didn't help. Chicago needed the game more than Detroit did (falling back two games behind the Lions with Detroit holding a sweep would have put Chicago against the NFC East and South teams for the remaining wild-card spot). Carolina is a different story: they still have a long way to go to be decent, and the defense shows it. Detroit tends to play well against bad defenses, and I think that will be the case today. Lions, 37-17.

Last week: predicted 13-23, actual 13-37

Current mood: fingers crossed

Lions season outlook, week 10

Obviously no changes on the Lions' side ... it was disappointing to see Chicago beat Philadelphia because it puts the Bears even with Detroit if they win this week, but it does keep another team farther from playoff contention, and the Lions don't have to pass every team.

Changes below come from opponents' results:

Massey projections:
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

Not much to note. The Green Bay home game is about to flip to underdog status, and the Minnesota game is just barely overwhelming. The Lions are still heavy favorites or better in four of their remaining eight games, which suggests at least a 10-6 record, and in fact estimated wins are up again to 10.94. (Remember that the Lions have three games as underdogs where the likelihood of them winning is 40% or better.)

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.5, unchanged
Playoffs: 79.6%, down 4.1 points
Division title: 12.9%, down 7.1 points
Top seed: 3.5%, down 1.4 points
NFC title: 6.8%, down 1.7 points
Super Bowl win: 3.4%, down 1.0 points

The Chicago win establishes the Bears as a serious contender for a playoff spot (up 22.6 points to 62.2%, third among wild-card teams behind Detroit and Atlanta). Green Bay continues to recede in the distance: while their defense still looks flawed, their offense still looks good enough to overcome those mistakes.

The meat of the schedule begins Sunday. A win in Chicago would be a huge boost to Detroit's playoff hopes; a loss isn't a killer, but it does create problems, given that the loss to Atlanta gives the Falcons a head-to-head edge. The Bears are vulnerable, just as the 49ers and Falcons were. Playoff teams win at least some of these games. Make it happen.

Do I think it will? No. The Lions had several chances to win the San Francisco game at home and did not, and Dallas doesn't yet look like a contender. Until Detroit can beat a contender on the road, I'm not sure they can get it done. Bears, 23-13.

Last week: no game

Current mood: pessimistic

Lions season outlook, week 9 (bye week)

Doing this just to track changes, even though there isn't anything to predict this week.

For the second time this year, the Lions absolutely dominated an AFC West opponent. All that proves, I think, is that the AFC West is terrible. (It's true that good teams stomp bad opponents, but the Lions did not stomp Minnesota.) The defense, in particular, made sure that this game wouldn't be like the last two. I bet Cliff Avril is looking forward to seeing more lefthanded quarterbacks in the league.

Combine this game with some interesting results across the league, and there should be some changes below.

Massey projections:
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

Again, all movement that makes sense given the Week 8 results (although keep in mind that it's a cumulative effect: these changes will get smaller and smaller as the season goes on). Estimated wins are up to 10.82, which reflects the difficulty of their remaining schedule. (Massey has the Lions 3rd overall, but with the toughest schedule in the last nine weeks.)

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.5, up 0.8
Playoffs: 83.7%, up 16.1 points
Division title: 17.0%, up 7.1 points
Top seed: 4.9%, up 2.2 points
NFC title: 8.5%, up 4.0 points
Super Bowl win: 4.4%, up 2.5 points

Green Bay still looks good, but they lose a tiny bit of ground from not playing. More important was the Saints losing; that, coupled with the Cowboys and Washington losing, took down a few of the teams likely to compete for a wild-card spot, which means that the Lions benefit.

Now Detroit gets to sit back and wait for a week. The way Chicago handles the pressure from Philadelphia may show how much Martz learned from the Monday Night loss to the Lions: the Eagles and Lions do some similar things and have similar pressure from outside (although the Eagles' secondary is much better, at least now that it's playing well). My guess is that they won't have been able to do too much, other than reminding Cutler not to hold onto the ball forever.


Last week: predicted 19-8, actual 45-10

Current mood: relieved

Lions season outlook, week 8

This time, it was an entire game's worth of struggles. Offensive line is finally proving to be the weak spot it seemed to be coming into the season, and with special teams still performing poorly, there's just too much for the defense to handle even when it's at the top of its game.

Penalties are becoming an issue again. Suh is obviously branded as a dirty player, and unfortunately he seems unaware that perception is at least as important as reality, and the longer this lasts, the less likely it is that there is a difference. (Rodney Harrison, in talking about this, still didn't think he himself was a dirty player. Case in point.)

Back-to-back losses in games where they were favored, substantially in the latter, should have a big impact on projections. Let's see:

Massey projections:
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, underdog (moved down)
Week 11: Carolina, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog (moved down)
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

So yeah, there was some movement. The loss of Jason Campbell pushed the Raiders game to favorite status (63%), but that was about it. This is probably a more accurate reflection of the Lions' strength. Estimated wins are right at 10, which matches the game-by-game projections.

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.7, down 0.5
Playoffs: 67.6%, down 13.0 points
Division title: 9.9%, down 11.9 points
Top seed: 2.7%, down 4.5 points
NFC title: 4.5%, down 3.2 points
Super Bowl win: 1.9%, down 1.4 points
15-1 record: off the board

Being two losses back means the division is pretty much gone; yes, the Packers are on the schedule twice, but in neither game is Detroit favored, and does this look like a team that can beat Green Bay? No. The one benefit so far is that the Lions' schedule is turning out to be more difficult than it seemed at first, so that's making the 5-2 record better than it might otherwise be. Having a two-in-three shot at a playoff spot is still pretty good.

So, after falling in consecutive week to teams that weren't playing as well as the Lions but managed to turn it around, Detroit has a game that they simply must win. If you can't beat bad teams, you aren't a playoff team. Fortunately, the Broncos have benched their starting QB and are using a running back in his place. Even if Stafford is not 100%, the Lions should completely shut down TEBOWTEBOWTEBOW and the Denver offense. Lions, 19-8.

Last week: predicted 27-17, actual 16-23

Current mood: disappointed

Lions season outlook, week 7

Once again, first-half struggles followed by ... oh wait, there was no second-half dominance. The Lions defense played fairly well, but failed to contain Frank Gore on two long runs. One led to a touchdown and the other led to a field goal; those two plays were arguably the difference.

On the other hand, Detroit did keep San Francisco in check, and even with those plays, the Lions had two chances to win, thanks in part to conservative playcalling by the 49ers. Stafford was inaccurate on too many plays, and the Lions simply couldn't recover.

Massey projections:
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 8: at Denver, favorite (moved down)
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, tossup (moved down)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

As you might expect, the loss to San Francisco moved a few games down one category, most notably the post-bye game in Chicago. However, the New Orleans game didn't move back into underdog status, partly because the Saints lost as well. It's notable that the game in New Orleans is the hardest remaining home game for the Saints: the Giants game the week before (on Monday night) is 84%, Atlanta is 81%, and Tampa Bay's return visit is 82%. Detroit is 60%.

Detroit's estimated wins, according to Massey, are 11.25. Sorry I missed that last week.

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.2, down 0.6
Playoffs: 80.6%, down 9.3 points
Division title: 21.8%, down 9.7 points
Top seed: 7.2%, down 10.6 points
NFC title: 7.7%, down 4.2 points
Super Bowl win: 3.3%, down 2.2 points
15-1 record: 0.1%, down 0.7 points

Obviously there's a drop across the board, mostly due to the loss (and the subsequent rise in San Francisco's future), but also due to other results in the conference. Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Chicago all jumped at least 10 points in overall playoff chances, so that has to come from somewhere. Green Bay is disappearing into the distance, and another loss prior to Thanksgiving will virtually wrap up the division for the Packers.

This is a must-win game for the Lions (well, most of them are, in playoff terms, because you can't lose ground and you certainly can't lose to a fellow wild-card contender). One home loss is unavoidable now; two of them would be a problem. Atlanta is not impressive, and the Lions must demonstrate it. FO actually likes Atlanta better than Detroit, but I'm not buying it. Lions, 27-17.

Last week: predicted 27-24, actual 19-25

Current mood: concerned

Lions season outlook, week 6

Yet again, first-half struggles followed by second-half dominance. It's good as long as you can repeat it, but when you can't ...

We start with Massey projections:
Week 6: San Francisco, favorite (moved down)
Week 7: Atlanta, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 8: at Denver, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, favorite (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

Again, there was a lot of movement this week, with four games moving up and the San Francisco rout moving that game down into "favorite". Note that three of the improvements are road games, including the game at New Orleans, which I think is interesting. Massey has that at 40% for Detroit, most likely a three-point loss.

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.8, unchanged
Playoffs: 89.9%, up 5.9 points
Division title: 31.5%, down 3.2 points
Top seed: 17.8%, down 2.5 points
NFC title: 11.9%, down 1.8 points
Super Bowl win: 5.5%, down 0.5 points
15-1 record: 0.8%, up 0.1 points

The playoff movement is a reaction to the win plus losses by possible competitors, while the other movement is due to Green Bay's refusal to look like anything other than a juggernaut. (The 15-1 thing, well, I can't really explain that.)

Massey gives Detroit about a 7-point edge over San Francisco. Vegas shows them as 4- to 4.5-point favorites. I think the Lions will win, but the 49ers are coming off a big win and may be a little tougher to handle than Detroit would like. The team will be prepared for this game; the one to watch is the next, where overconfidence could be an issue. Detroit, 27-24.

Last week: predicted 31-16, actual 24-13.

Current mood: cautiously optimistic

Lions season outlook, week 5

Again, a win is good, but struggling initially against a good team is not (assuming Dallas is a good team; if they aren't, this is worse).

First, to updated Massey projections:
Week 5: Chicago, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 6: San Francisco, heavy favorite
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight favorite (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

You won't see all the movement that actually happens because I'm not including the actual percentage each time: for that, I encourage you to visit his site. Notice that even with the close win, four games moved, including the Week 10 game flipping to a slight win for Detroit. They are underdogs in only three games now. Expected wins are now 11.8, which is almost a full win better than last week, but still well back of Green Bay. It's fair to say that 8-0 is now an expectation, especially with the next three games being home games in which Detroit is a heavy favorite. Best case is probably still 14-2, worst case is probably 10-6.

Defense adjustments make their first appearance in FO's data. The Playoff Odds report puts the Lions at 10.8 mean wins, up from last week but not by much; an 84% chance of a playoff spot, up 2.2%; 34.7% for a division title, down 4.8%; 20.3% for the #1 seed, down 4%; 13.7% for a Super Bowl appearance, down 3.3%; and 6% for a Super Bowl win, down 1.8%. They are also 0.7% to go 15-1, up 0.1%.

12-4 still seems about right, with a win at Chicago. The Oakland game might not be a loss, but then the Lions have been playing 30 minutes of good football in three of their four games and gotten away with it. At some point, they'll play a team that can play 60 minutes.

The big thing here will be to win the games they are expected to win. That's difficult for a young team, but what I like about this team is that they are not doing cartwheels for being 4-0. They seem to be approaching it like yeah, we're 4-0, we expect to win. A team like that should stay focused against weaker opponents like Chicago and San Francisco.

Massey likes the Lions by about 8.5. Vegas has Detroit between -5 and -6. I like the Lions as well, although I'll probably be in the car for half the game and asleep in my bed for the other half. Detroit, 31-16.

Current mood: hopeful

Lions season outlook, Week 4

Hard to say how this changes from last week: winning is good, struggling on the road is expected against better teams but a sign of trouble against weaker teams. (Compare with the Tampa Bay game.)

First we look at Massey's predictions:
Week 4: at Dallas, slight favorite
Week 5: Chicago, favorite
Week 6: San Francisco, heavy favorite
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, tossup
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 86% (5-1), then overwhelming favorites. Reverse for underdogs.

So you can see Detroit is favored to an extent in the rest of their pre-bye games and underdogs in half of their remaining games. Their Expected Wins are 10.95: this would give them the first wild-card spot (with Green Bay winning the division). It's not unreasonable to suggest that Detroit could be 8-0 at the break; a pessimist would suggest 5-3, losing both road games plus one of Chicago/Atlanta. Overall, best-case is probably 14-2 if everything goes right; a pessimist would say 8-8.

Football Outsiders isn't showing defense-adjusted data this early in the season, but their Playoff Odds report gives Detroit 10.5 mean wins, an 81.8% shot at the playoffs, 39.5% for a division title, 24.3% for the #1 seed, 17.0% for a Super Bowl appearance, and 7.8% for a Super Bowl victory. (Also, interestingly, 0.6% for going 15-1, the second-best chance behind Green Bay.)

The way the Lions are playing, I would lean toward 12-4, with an "upset" win at Chicago and a loss in the tossup at Oakland. I don't think they beat Green Bay either place ... they need to demonstrate that they can play a great game against someone better than the Chiefs first.

Obviously all these pretty much guarantee a playoff spot (with apologies to Braves and Red Sox fans). The issue will be the Green Bay games: lose those and the division title is out of the question, and any Super Bowl hopes will rest on at least one outdoor win. Split, and the Lions could get lucky; sweep, and it's hard to picture the Lions with anything less than a bye. (We know the NFC West winner will be playing in the first round; that leaves the East and South. A Lions team that sweeps the Packers would likely be 13-3 at worst.)

On the other end, the Chicago and Atlanta games are key to a playoff appearance. You have to hold serve. (The San Francisco game, too: you can't lose to "non-contenders".) 5 or 6 wins at the break would have sounded great prior to the season, but the way things are going, that could mean a 9-win season and no playoffs. Atlanta could turn things around (especially with a win in Detroit), Tampa Bay hasn't lost since the Lions game, and the NFC East could always produce two or three 10-win teams.

Current mood: optimistic

Thoughts on Week 2 in the NFL

• Good teams blow out bad teams; average teams struggle against them. 48-3, whether or not tampering charges were motivation, is a blowout. Last year, the Lions crushed St. Louis, 44-6, and then won just one of their next seven games. True, that included close losses to the Jets, Bears, and Bills, but the point is that last year's team lost those games. This year's team beat the Bucs in a close game. 
• Speaking of "teams that look really good because they crushed the Chiefs", let's hold off on Ralph Wilson Memorial Super Bowl Appearance talk for now, and not because Ralph Wilson isn't actually dead yet. (He's no Al Davis.) Buffalo gave up 35 or 41 points to Oakland, depending on who you think caught Campbell's Hail Mary. Again, it's better than starting 0-2, but you still have to beat good teams to be a good team yourself.
• If someone could explain how the Ravens gave up more than 350 yards to Matt Hasselbeck in a game they lost, i.e. not in garbage time, I'd like to hear it. Is their defense only going to play during odd weeks? Only against division opponents? And the offense ... Ray Rice can't do it all, people.
• Is it too soon to start the "Donovan McNabb is done" talk? What's that? Yes, people have been saying it, but until last year, there was no real proof: his average net yards per attempt dipped last year, but that could just as well be because it was Washington's offense (insert Kyle Shanahan joke here). Well, [QB Redacted]'s ANY/A was actually worse last year than McNabb's was in Washington, 4.7 vs. 5.3. McNabb's dismal performance in Week 1 isn't likely to recur, but then the Vikings' '70s-era offense only wants a caretaker performance out of him this season, and that looks like it'll be enough to keep Minnesota under .500.
• JAY CUTLER IS NOT THE PROBLEM. The problem is that the offensive line sucks. Yes, a QB can contribute – compare Peyton Manning to Kerry Collins – but the Bears know what kind of QB Cutler is, and yet they still have a Martzian offensive line. Obviously two-week stats don't extrapolate perfectly to a full season, but even at half of the current rate through the rest of the season, Cutler would be sacked 55 times, and the Bears have yet to play Green Bay and Detroit. Martz' decision to ignore TEs when the Bears had perfectly good TEs and weak WRs will prove to be a disastrous one, and Cutler will be the scapegoat. This Lions fan thanks the Bears fans who will make this happen.
• Mark Sanchez is taking over [QB Redacted]'s spot as the most overrated QB in the NFL. Football Outsiders pointed out how Sanchez had a lot of luck with dropped interceptions, and yet his ANY/A was still a weak 5.4 last season. He looked better against Jacksonville (I accidentally typed Hacksonville at first; maybe I should have left it), but then that's kind of like beating Kansas City: it's an expectation, not a sign of improvement. 
• I think I just saw the Pete Carroll bandwagon rolling past. Looked pretty empty. I'd say it's NCAA karma, but then that organization is going to blow up in about five years (there is pending litigation on several fronts that the NCAA can't stop). Anyway, while the Seahawks deserve full credit for knocking off New Orleans, this is clearly not the same team. The decision to let Hasselbeck go is reasonable, but Tarvaris Jackson is not the answer. 
• I don't believe that the Shanahans have magically transformed Rex Grossman into an NFL quarterback, not yet. I do believe that the NFC West is actually worse this season than it was last season. Bill Simmons isn't convinced that the division will be won with more than six wins. I'm not either. I have a friend who's a huge Seahawks fan, and there's no truth to the rumor that his wife has removed all sharp objects from the house. 
• Is it time to start asking questions about the Packers' pass defense? Drew Brees, sure, especially when trailing, but Cam Newton? I mean, Steve Smith is still good, right? 156 receiving yards? (Calvin Johnson is looking forward to those games, right?) And no, Newton isn't the next Peyton Manning. He's just a rookie who's been asked to throw the ball a lot. Kind of like Sam Bradford. So maybe he's the next Sam Bradford.
• I see Tony Romo cost the Cowboys another win ... wait, what? Someone probably needs to explain to Jim Harbaugh that he's not coaching in the Pac-12* any more: take the points off the board, run more clock, and kick a shorter field goal. 
• I think the Broncos ought to start Tim Tebow the rest of the season. That would show those fans. I mean, usually the starting QB actually has to struggle before they call for his head ... the Broncos will be raiding the waiver wire for WRs, and yet it'll be at Orton's feet when they lose. (Make sure Tebow's starting when Detroit comes to town, k?)
• So I guess the Texans' defense is just fine, but what's wrong with the offense? 23 points against Miami? Just kidding. Beating non-contending teams is a requirement. Thrashing Indy was a good sign; struggling at Miami was OK, but not quite what Gary Kubiak needs to see. If Houston is making a run at the playoffs, they need to put these games out of reach.
• Tom Brady blah blah high-powered Patriots offense blah blah. The injury to Mesko would be notable on most teams, but Belichick is one of the few coaches who can make decisions purely based on value and not on risk avoidance. If he had to go for it more often on fourth down, you wouldn't even notice. (It's interesting, though, how the Belichick coaching tree is quickly pruned everywhere else it goes. Coordinators, not bad: head coaches, terrible.)
• If the league wants to get serious about head shots, Dunta Robinson will sit for eight games. He won't, mostly because the NFLPA has no balls when it comes to protecting their own. I've never understood why players' unions always protect the dirty players. Aren't the victims also union members? If you want to change behavior, you penalize it more and more heavily until it changes. Obviously guys like Robinson and James Harrison don't care that they're taking 20-30 years off their own lives, but they have no right to do that to their opponents. (If Mike Smith really teaches it that way, then suspend him for eight games as well. If he's just sticking up for his player in the press, well, everyone has the right to an attorney.)
  I wouldn't be at all surprised if Jeremy Maclin has post-concussion syndrome and is later quoted as saying he barely remembers the last half of Sunday night's game. That was an easy pass to catch – this Kafka kid, he can throw the ball, and I think the Eagles' offense resembles what he ran at Northwestern enough for him to fill in adequately if needed – and Maclin simply couldn't bring it in.
• The Giants are in a no-win situation tonight. Their defense is banged up, Hakeem Nicks might not play, and yet if they beat the Rams, it really won't show anything at all. If they lose to a St. Louis team without Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola, it'll say something, and Tom Coughlin won't want to hear it.

Remember, you can't win anything in Week 2, but you sure can lose it. (No, really. Two weeks don't extrapolate to sixteen, but a difference of two poorly-played games can turn a good season into a non-playoff season.) The Lions are second in the NFL in points scored and also in points allowed (even with the Monday night game not having been played), and Stafford has not been sacked in two games: Detroit is the only team to allow no sacks so far. None of that will be true at the end ... but if the offensive line continues to protect the 2009 #1 pick, football in January might be worth watching in Detroit. 

* Hey, they only had 12 as of this post. It's not my fault.

A hopeless cause

Each NFL team plays 16 regular-season games. An average team wins 8 games per year (ties are very uncommon), but that team would be lucky to make the playoffs and probably would lose in the wild-card round. Add a couple of wins the following season, though, and now you have a 10-win team, one that might steal a division title and get a home playoff game. One more win the following season and suddenly you might be thinking playoff contender: 11 wins and you might be looking past the wild-card game to the divisional playoffs.

But that kind of improvement isn't common. Only 154 of 1605 teams have done it, less than 10%. So you'd think that if that is the expected outcome for your team, you should be happy, right?

Well, here's the problem. Football Outsiders' projection for the Lions this year is calling for that exact improvement ... leaving them with a 3-13 record. (Pick up a copy of FOA 2010 in the FO Store and see for yourself.) Sure, it's more wins than in the last two seasons combined, but 3-13 is hardly something to celebrate. Of those 154 teams, 4 of them won 0 games in Year 0: '42 Lions, '44 Steelers, '60 Cowboys, and '76 Buccaneers. Two WWII-era teams and two expansion teams. In two seasons, every one of those teams won 5 games or more, and that was before the 16-game schedule, mostly. (Ten to twelve games in the '40s, fourteen games through 1977, so the '78 Bucs did get two more shots at wins.)

So basically, if the Lions improve as projected, it will be less improvement than any other winless team has managed in two seasons. (Technically not – the wartime Cardinals were winless in '43 and '44, winning a single game in '45 – but they merged with the Steelers for the '44 season, so that doesn't exactly count. The only winless team not listed above, the '82-'84 Colts, are an exception as well because '82 was the nine-game strike season ... and the '83 Colts won seven games. They managed only four wins in '84.)

Yes, the team for which I've rooted since the early '70s was completely gutted by the worst GM in the history of professional sports, Matt Millen. He took a team that was literally a field goal away from making the playoffs and scrubbed so much talent from the roster that after two years of rebuilding, they still won't win 25% of their games. He was bad at his job on a level that defies description: very few positions offer as much public scrutiny as president/GM/what have you of a professional sports team, and fewer still draw the attention that an NFL team president garners. Millen was terrible in his first three seasons – 14-34-0 from 2000 through 2002 – and yet the Fords kept him around. 16-32-0 over the next three seasons ... and a miserable 10-38-0 in his last three (counting 2008, the year he was finally cut loose). That final three-year period is the second-worst in post-strike NFL history (starting with the '88 season), behind only the Patriots from 1990 to 1992 (9-39-0). What have they done since then? Exactly.

Here's the kicker. Excluding wartime teams, the worst three-year span in NFL history came from the 1959-1961 Washington Redskins, whose 5-30-0 mark gave them a winning percentage of .143. Sounds bad, right? But that FO projection would put the Lions at 5-43-0 ... that's .104, for those of you who made it this far. That's worse than everyone except the wartime Cardinals.

So it isn't getting better any time soon, and even if it does, well, ask the Bills how easy it is to win a Super Bowl. Even when you're (arguably) the best team in the league, one or two breaks can take that chance away, and who knows when you'll get another one?

So why do I root for the Lions? Because that's what you do. You carry the flag, season after season, knowing that there's a small possibility that someday, you'll be the one in front of the television, speechless with joy ...