zlionsfan's blog

2011: the offense in review

2012-02-03T09:32:00.000-05:00

Part 2 of a series looking at the season that just completed and what might be expected from the season to come. Here, I focus on the talent at each position, and what I think should be done for 2012.

QB: A-

Performance: I know ... A- for a 5000-yard season? Well, remember that Stafford threw the third-most passes in NFL history. Counting stats must always be read in context. Certainly, Stafford's first full season looked much more like a #1 overall pick than what we saw in his partial seasons, in no small part, I think, due to the strength training he did in the offseason. He took a lot of hits in 2011 as well, but got up after each one of them, and ended up missing very few snaps. (Hill threw 3 passes; I don't think Stanton ever played.)

On the other hand, Stafford still got rattled after bad throws, particularly in the game at Chicago, and still tries to force the ball into coverage. With Calvin Johnson on the receiving end, sometimes that's OK, and at his best, Stafford has the ability to fit the ball into a ball-sized window. He's not always at his best, though. Sometimes it's better to take a sack (something he did better in 2011 than in 2010) or to throw it away.

Top priority: What he did last year. Maybe work more with the younger receivers (Pettigrew, Young) to develop the same kind of rapport he has with Johnson. Think of the Colts as an example. Manning had a #1 target (Harrison or Wayne or Clark), but also had other receivers he could trust to be a certain place at a certain time, and it made their offense nearly unstoppable. If Stafford can get the WRs and TEs on the same page, this could be a similar offense.

Other needs: It would help to re-sign one of the backups; both Hill and Stanton filled in well in 2010. It's probably not possible to re-sign both for reasonable money due to their experience. Hill will be 32, Stanton will be 28, so there's that, but I think Hill is more capable of running a full-throttle offense than Stanton.

RB: C

Performance: Despite the wide variance in playing time and usage, Smith, Best, and Morris all had comparable DYAR (48, 46, and 37 respectively). Smith's raw stats look pretty good until you realize that he played mostly against teams with bad run defenses (17.1% VOA, 7.2% DVOA). All three backs had higher DYAR on the receiving side (Best 65, Morris 64, Smith 64), and each back posted a receiving DVOA above 17% (Smith and Morris were above 25%).

Obviously, the absence of Leshoure was felt from Week 1, and when Best went out (again) with concussion problems, the Lions had to scramble. If Smith hadn't been available via FA, the back situation would have been grim. Morris is a change-up back, not a starter, and Keiland Williams is an adequate big back for a team with a good OL. Detroit is not that team.

Top priority: Opening training camp with two strong, healthy backs. Leshoure's status will be almost completely unknown until camp begins: there was some research done with respect to older players and Achilles injuries, but even those are nearly anecdotal, and of course it's impossible to separate an injury-recovery decline in performance from an age-related decline in performance. Leshoure is obviously younger than NFL peak age, so he could, potentially, return at good strength in 2012, although he may not be 100% until 2013.

Best, on the other hand, has played two injury-filled seasons in the NFL following a concussion-filled college career. With the richly-deserved focus on concussions in today's game, it's entirely possible that Best will never be able to play at the level the Lions hoped he would when they drafted him in 2010. (To be clear, I'm glad if this happens, because it'll mean it's not safe for him to play and thus he won't be allowed to risk his health. In the past, they'd have thrown him out there, let him rack up concussions, and cut him when he couldn't think straight any more.)

Smith is a free agent, but remember that RB is a fungible position, and he also has a history of injury. If he'll sign for a reasonable price, get him, but if not, don't be afraid to go back to the draft, or to look for a low-priced FA.

Other needs: None, really. Morris is replacement-level at best and probably not worth re-signing. Jerome Harrison obviously has more important things on his mind right now than football. The Lions can grab younger backs if they need to fill out their roster.

WR: B+

Performance: Calvin Johnson led the NFL with 586 DYAR, topping WRs with 16 TDs (tied for 14th all-time) and the NFL with 1681 receiving yards (7th all-time, but only second in Detroit history behind Herman Moore's 1681). The one thing that could probably be improved is his catch rate, 61%, but a) that's his career high (up from 57% last season), b) it's affected by the long passes thrown to him (33% last season were either Deep passes or Bombs), and c) it's also affected by the point in the season where defensive coordinators realized that single coverage was not the way to play Megatron. (You should know by now that any coach whose last name is Ryan is not given to intelligent comments. He wasn't that far off, though: Laurent Robinson was 3rd in DVOA, ahead of Megatron, and Dez Bryant was 13th ... but significantly behind Johnson. Suffice it to say that even at the time, Ryan's remark was obviously trolling. Give Titus Young a couple of seasons, and Megatron could post stats that even Ryan would appreciate.) So let's not dwell on that 61%. Megatron had a spectacular season.

Once Young became a part of the offense, he quickly developed into a threat, catching four or more passes in each of the Lions' last four games and scoring a total of 4 TDs in those games. His catch rate is low (56%), but he's young and has a high ceiling, so he should take over the #2 role from Burleson next season. Burleson, like Young, had a slightly negative DVOA (-4.5% to Young's -1.6%), but is a good fit as a secondary receiver in this offense. Expect him to become even more of a possession receiver with Young's emergence.

Top priority: Keep Johnson healthy and happy. Until another receiver emerges as an adequate complement, Johnson is what makes the receiving corps dangerous.

Other needs: Again, none, really. Johnson-Young-Burleson is a fine group to have, and all are under contract. The only free agents are ST-quality receivers, and that's another section.

TE: B

Performance: Brandon Pettigrew's counting stats were up slightly, but his performance dropped a bit; like Young and Burleson, he had a slightly negative DVOA (-2.2%). Tony Scheffler wasn't used nearly as often (43 passes to 126 toward Pettigrew), but was far more productive, with a 24.6% DVOA (8th among TEs) and 96 DYAR (vs. 30 for Pettigrew). Scheffler's ability to make spectacular catches makes you wonder why he wasn't on the field more often ... until you realize that Detroit doesn't use a lot of empty sets, and using 2 TEs means the third WR has to come off. His low catch rate (60%) was probably a factor as well.

Pettigrew has a couple of areas for improvement: YAC and penalties. For all his size, Pettigrew doesn't seem to get through tackles often, averaging less than 4 YAC, but that wasn't as big of a deal as the penalties. He led the NFL in false starts among non-linemen (there is, of course, no source for this; I just recall hearing it during a broadcast), and of course had that personal foul late in the season.)

Will Heller was mostly used as a FB and blocking TE; he fills in well enough in both roles.

Top priority: Getting the most out of Pettigrew. If he can improve his performance, his size and skills will make him a very dangerous target.

Other needs: None, really. If Young emerges as a clear #2 WR, then Linehan can do more of the 12 package (1 RB/2 TEs) that the Lions used last season, with either or both TEs flexing out and with Scheffler occasionally lining up as a WR.

OT: C-

Performance: Ah, now we get to the criticism. When the tackles were good, they were decent; when they were bad, they were awful. Backus deserves a ton of credit for surviving the Dark Times and not missing a game (take that, QB-consecutive-games-played people), but he's obviously past his prime, and he's no longer capable of doing more than slowing down elite pass rushers. Unfortunately, Jared Allen and Clay Matthews are in the same division, which means at least one-fourth of the Lions' games are against teams with elite speed rushers. Gosder Cherilus is young, but old enough that he's probably reached his potential, which isn't much better than Backus' level of play. In fact, Detroit had much worse ALY at right end (2.44) than at left end (3.67). The Lions had a solid ASR of 5.9%, but of course some of that is from Stafford getting rid of the ball quickly; who knows how much higher it would have been if Detroit had good OTs?

Top priority: Getting a good LT to protect Stafford. If there is an immediate starter at #23 (much later than Schwartz is accustomed to picking), they need to take him. It may even be worth trading up to get one. There are no FAs who are both healthy and good, so looking at, say, Jared Gaither or Demetrius Bell may not be worth the money they'd cost.

Other needs: Backus is a FA; he's only worth re-signing if he'll take backup money. He could be a good mentor for a rookie LT. A replacement for Cherilus would be nice, but it's unlikely the Lions can find two starting-caliber tackles in one offseason. Corey Hilliard is a competent backup (actually outplaying Cherilus for stretches in 2010), and as a RFA, he could be worth re-signing.

G: B-

Performance: Not bad, actually. Rob Sims was a serviceable LG, and Stephen Peterman turned out to be better than I thought he would be. Detroit's highest ALY, by far, was through right tackle, 4.22, and Peterman deserves some credit for that. Both guards seem to do an adequate job of pulling, although the line as a unit doesn't play well enough for that to work every time.

Top priority: Figuring out if Carl Nicks can fit under the cap, lol. He's available, so it would be crazy not to ask. Barring that, the Lions should probably stick with what they have. There are more urgent needs elsewhere.

Other needs: Young backups. Leonard Davis is a free agent, but he's old and seldom used. Pick up a late-round player or an undrafted FA for depth.

C: C-

Performance: Like Backus, Dominic Raiola cut his teeth during the Dark Times (although unlike Backus, he had the temerity to miss a game or two). Like Backus, he's at the point where he's no longer a starting-caliber player. If he's responsible for line calls, then he's doing that well, as there were not many plays I saw where the protection itself was an issue (it was more individual blocking), and that's not easily dismissed, but he occasionally got run over by bigger DL.

Top priority: Figuring out if Scott Wells can fit under the cap. (Yes, I am suggesting poaching OL from the Lions' top NFC opponents. Hell yes.) There are a couple of other quality centers out there, but if Detroit can't land one, they at least need to draft a young guy who can replace Raiola in the near future.

Other needs: Probably none. Whether or not they sign a FA, they need a backup. If they do sign a FA, Raiola will probably be the backup, unless they can afford the cap hit to release him. (Even then, they may not. It would not go over very well to just dump him by the wayside.) If they draft a center, obviously the rookie would be the backup.

Coming next: the defense and what little I know about special teams.

2011: the season in review

2012-01-16T15:11:00.002-05:00

Now that the season is over, it's time to take a look back and review it in detail, both from what things seemed like at the time and how they look now.

Overall, of course, the season was a huge success.

10 regular-season wins, beaten only by the '91 Lions (12-4) and the '31 Spartans and '62 Lions (both 11-3).
A team-record 474 points (yes, even in points per game; the highest-scoring team playing 14 games was the '70 Lions, they of the 5-0 loss to Dallas in the first-ever NFC wild-card game, scoring 347 points).
A point difference of 87, tenth-best. The best ever by a Lions team was +179 by the '34 Lions: scoring 238, giving up just 59 (in a 13-game season!). Unfortunately, they were in the wrong division. The Bears went 13-0, including back-to-back wins over the Lions to clinch the division (19-16 and 10-7), and then lost the NFL championship to New York. (The Lions would get revenge in '35, going 1-0-1 against Chicago and beating the Giants for their first NFL title.)
Records of almost every kind with respect to passing: Stafford's 421 completions, 663 attempts, 63.5% completions, 5038 yards, 41 TDs; Johnson's 16 TD receptions. (Johnson's 1681 receiving yards were second to Herman Moore's 1686 in 1995 ... and Moore had 27 more receptions.) Hanson's 54 extra points were also a record.

The comebacks were nice; another comeback in the wild-card game at New Orleans would have been nice, too, but it wasn't to be. Maybe next season ...

Game 1: Detroit 27 at Tampa Bay 20

At the time: A big win on the road over a 2010 playoff contender. A 17-0 run gave the Lions a lead they'd hold through a Buccaneer comeback.
Now: Unimpressive. Tampa Bay finished a lackluster 4-12 and gave up nearly 500 points, yet Detroit managed just 27 points and had to hold off a late comeback to preserve a 7-point win. Detroit fumbled four times, but was fortunate to recover all of them.

Game 2: Kansas City 3 at Detroit 48

At the time: A rout of a 2010 division winner: six Kansas City turnovers, only 116 yards net passing, a game under control from start to finish. The Lions are an impressive 2-0.
Now: Less impressive, but still solid. A 45-point win is good no matter who the opponent is. The Chiefs finished just 7-9 (and, like Tampa Bay, fired their coach), but then again, they did manage to beat Green Bay, and the Lions couldn't do that. Matt Cassel and his backups never established a good passing game, so the 116 wasn't as good as it may have seemed.

Game 3: Detroit 26 at Minnesota 23, OT

At the time: A huge comeback on the road against a division rival. The Vikings and Lions both finished 2010 at 6-10, and both had hopes for 2011. Winning in the Metrodome meant that the Lions, for a change, were the team with an advantage.
Now: Significantly less impressive. Donovan McNabb turned out to be a huge bust - or perhaps he was simply in a no-win situation. Minnesota slumped to 3-13, making this game look more like a problem for the Lions than the big win it seemed to be. Detroit's failure to move the ball in the first half, to establish a running game, and to keep Jared Allen out of the backfield would all be repeating themes.

Game 4: Detroit 34 at Dallas 30

At the time: Another huge comeback on the road; at 4-0, with three road wins, the Lions suddenly look like a playoff team. Sure, Dallas was 6-10 in 2010, but they looked pretty good at this point. Unlike the Minnesota game, this one relied on help from the Cowboys: two interception returns for TDs.
Now: About the same. Dallas went 8-8 and just missed the playoffs, but again, lack of first-half offense without turnovers to blame meant that Detroit was starting to establish a pattern of struggling early.

Game 5: Chicago 13 at Detroit 24

At the time: In a long-awaited return to Monday night, the Lions slog through a penalty-filled game to hold off the defending division champs and NFC runners-up. At 5-0, they're a legitimate Super Bowl contender, or so we think.
Now: Hard to say. Again, the offense struggled, and obviously there were discipline problems with respect to penalties that never went away, but until Cutler got hurt, the Bears were on track for the #5 seed. With that in mind, this was a significant win for the Lions even in retrospect.

Game 6: San Francisco 25 at Detroit 19

At the time: A disappointing loss. The Lions are plus-2 in turnovers and hold San Francisco to 125 yards passing, but blow a fourth-quarter lead and fail to defeat a team, like them, coming off a 6-10 season and looking for more. The loss was more painful because it was at home, and Atlanta, not San Francisco, was supposed to be the challenge following the Chicago game.
Now: More understandable, but still disappointing. Flip this game around and Detroit becomes the #5, San Francisco becomes the #3, and who knows what's different? Still, the 49ers played a truly poor game and the Lions could not take advantage of it. Stafford could not move the ball well enough against a good defense.

Game 7: Atlanta 23 at Detroit 16

At the time: Understandable. The defending #1 seed shakes off a rough start to the season and keeps the Lions at bay the entire game. Again, Detroit struggles against a good defense.
Now: Very costly and less understandable. This was the game that knocked Detroit into the spot opposite the Saints. Atlanta's defense is still pretty good, but the Falcons turned out to be Detroit's peers, and the Lions should have been able to win this one. Inability to beat contending teams made the difference between 10-6 and maybe 13-3 ... keeping in mind that they could also have been 7-9 without those comebacks.

Game 8: Detroit 45 at Denver 10

At the time: A much-needed win, moving the Lions back toward a playoff spot. Untested Tim Tebow is ravaged by the Lions' defense, giving Detroit 14 points off turnovers and failing to generate much offense himself. Denver does get 195 yards on the ground, which is a concern.
Now: The 2-5 Broncos finish 8-8, win the division, and upset a shaky Pittsburgh team in the playoffs, making this win look pretty significant. Looking back, a 4-0 start on the road from a franchise that twice spent 3 years looking for a road win ... and notching two of those wins over playoff contenders (their fifth and final road win would come against Oakland, another contender), well ... even if all the contenders were .500 teams, that's still a lot of progress.

Game 9: Detroit 13 at Chicago 37

At the time: A humiliating blowout that put Green Bay out of reach and began to put the Lions' playoff possibilities in question. A series of poor decisions by Stafford and Detroit's special teams gave the Bears all they needed to secure a much-needed win.
Now: Not so bad considering the Bears' trajectory at the time. Keeping in mind that 14 points came from interception returns and 7 from a punt return, it certainly wasn't the defense that was at fault. Still, we see the same problems that we saw earlier: inability to move the ball against a good defense, and bad decision-making leading to points for the other team.

Game 10: Carolina 35 at Detroit 49

At the time: One horrible quarter-plus followed by two-ish quarters of very impressive offensive football. The Panthers' defense was as bad as advertised, but the Lions gave up way too much and should not have had to mount such a comeback.
Now: Somewhat understandable given the Panthers' 6-10 record, but turnovers and special teams (the only two returns for TDs the Lions gave up in the kicking game happened during these two games) put Detroit in a spot they shouldn't have been in.

Game 11: Green Bay 27 at Detroit 15

At the time: Missed opportunities. Turnovers and penalties. The Lions slowed the Packers enough to give themselves chances to win, but failed to take advantage when they could, and thus endeth the shot at a division title. Some of it could be blamed on injuries, but that was only on defense: the offense, other than at RB, was basically untouched.
Now: Just the same. All six Detroit losses came against playoff contenders: most losses were like this one, where you could see this was an improved Lions team, but also that they were simply not good enough to win these games. The absence of Louis Delmas made the secondary a concern, and guys like Alphonso Smith and Chris Harris played roles they really weren't good enough to play. Maybe that put too much pressure on the offense, but then a winning team can pull out games like that. Detroit, in 2011, did not.

Game 12: Detroit 17 at New Orleans 31

At the time: Better than Indianapolis-New England? Maybe not. Three second-quarter touchdowns put the game out of reach: the Lions couldn't cover the Saints' receivers and couldn't pressure Brees.
Now: No different. New Orleans showed they were clearly better, at least better than a Detroit team with a banged-up secondary. Even looking at this as a throwaway game for the Lions (odds of winning in New Orleans? low), at some point, you'd like your team to play well against an elite team, and it never really happened for Schwartz.

Game 13: Minnesota 28 at Detroit 34

At the time: Again, the Lions have to hold off a weak opponent in Ford Field. A missed face-mask call means Detroit forces a fumble on the final play to preserve a win; the Lions are plus-6 (!!) in turnover margin but struggle all game to move the ball. Is the offense going to be strong enough to get the Lions into the playoffs?
Now: Worse than at the time. This should have been a rout, but the offense produces just 20 points, and the defense gives up 269 yards rushing to a team that was one of the worst in the NFC. Perhaps this game showed the need to upgrade at both tackle positions: neither Backus nor Cherilus can hold off speed rushers well enough to move the ball effectively, and that's on a team with a QB who threw for over 5000 yards.

Game 14: Detroit 28 at Oakland 27

At the time: A dramatic comeback, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat yet again, and on the road in a hostile environment against a playoff contender. Calvin Johnson's monster game keeps Detroit in the driver's seat for a wild-card spot.
Now: A little less impressive given Oakland's face plant against San Diego, but still ... while the defense was wholly unimpressive, the offense did just enough to make up for it, and several teams rode that mix to a home playoff game (New England, Green Bay, New Orleans).

Game 15: San Diego 10 at Detroit 38

At the time: The Lions seal a playoff spot by rolling the Chargers, knocking San Diego out of contention. Up 24-0 at halftime, Detroit can just cruise to a win.
Now: A little more impressive given San Diego's win over Oakland in Week 17, and perhaps also because it was a win they needed to lock up a wild-card spot. Those wins aren't always easy for teams that aren't used to the playoffs.

Game 16: Detroit 41 at Green Bay 45

Now: Inexplicable. With several key players resting, Green Bay forced the usual array of turnovers and penalties that have been characteristic of Lions' losses. Instead of a game at New York or Dallas, the Lions get another trip to New Orleans, and that one ends about as well as you'd expect.

Wild-card: Detroit 28 at New Orleans 45

Now: Pretty impressive, given that in their first meeting, the Saints dunked the Lions right away and wouldn't stop until the lifeguard came over and yelled at them. Detroit actually led at halftime, 14-10 – 10 points for the Saints in one half! – and trailed only 24-21 at the end of three. New Orleans converted three fourth-down opportunities, and those made the difference: the Lions never forced a punt. In addition to OT, Detroit must upgrade at CB and SS. The NFL is a passing league, so you have to have a secondary that either makes big plays (GB) or simply doesn't allow you to make them (Hou, Bal). Another year of experience for Suh, Fairley, and Avril (who must be re-signed) should also help.

Overall, 10-6 and a playoff spot is a big step up, and for the first time since maybe the '50s, the Lions also have a legitimate reason to look for improvement beyond this. They have young talent at QB, WR, TE, DE, DT, and FS, and with healthy RBs and an improved OL and secondary, they could challenge for the NFC crown next year.

Schwartz and Mayhew deserve a lot of credit for what they've done, particularly with respect to Stafford. It's just one season at this point, but there is a huge difference between the way he was playing this year, even in the last two games, and how he played in previous seasons. With another year under his belt, and with a full training camp ahead of him, he should be posting some solid numbers in 2012 as well.

NFL week 17: Let the playoffs begin

2012-01-07T13:43:00.000-05:00

So ... yeah. 45 points. But hey, Stafford broke the 5000-yard mark this season ... and was third in the NFL. Take that, Danny boy.

Green Bay rested starters and still knocked the Lions into the #6 seed. As a result, Matt Flynn will get a Scott Mitchell-sized contract. Maybe he can do stupid State Farm commercials, too.
San Francisco did clinch the #2 seed, although St. Louis did make a game of it late.
The Giants did sweep the Cowboys to win the division. I didn't check, but I'm sure Romo got blamed for it somehow (although he did play – amazing things they can do these days to keep swelling down).
The Patriots did crush the Bills (after spotting them a 21-point lead, showoffs) to clinch the #1 seed.
Baltimore did not lose to Cincinnati, but they and Pittsburgh both get byes. (Because really, you think Tebow is going to move the ball against the Steelers' defense?)
Kyle Orton did "lead" the Chiefs to victory over the Broncos, but the Raiders lost to the Chargers and missed the playoffs.
Cincinnati did get the #6 seed, but only because everyone else (including the Jets) lost.

So I got three of the four wild-card matchups right. It's Pittsburgh at Denver instead of Baltimore at Oakland. Of course it didn't take much to hit some of those predictions ... although wouldn't it have been wild if St. Louis had knocked New Orleans into the #3 seed by beating them, then bumped them back to the #2 by beating San Francisco?

The Colts did get the #1 pick, and apparently they will draft Andrew Luck. This is not a good sign, because Indianapolis doesn't have a GM yet. (The Polians were fired as soon as the season ended. Note: If you're an asshole, you can keep your job as long as you perform well. If you're an asshole, and you promote your asshole son to do your job, and he sucks at it, you'll both get fired. I never met the Polians, but from what I read, Bill did nothing to endear himself to anyone, and Chris was even less likable.) That means Jim Irsay is going to look for someone who'll do what he wants, and given that sometimes he doesn't even know what that is, we may well have found Al Davis' spiritual successor.
Raheem Morris did not fire himself; he didn't have to. The Bucs were down 42-0 in the first half, and if the Glazers actually paid attention to the team, he probably would have been fired then.
We ended up with 7 non-playoff teams at 8-8. This is why the draft order uses only strength of schedule and a coin flip as tiebreakers!
Minnesota couldn't even beat Bad Chicago. It wasn't enough to get Frazier fired, though he did have to cut an assistant or two.
Steve Spagnuolo did get fired, probably deservedly so (how about that Josh McDaniels hire? sure helped Bradford), even if he never had enough talent to work with. (The GM was let go as well.)
Andy Reid did not get fired, and I agree with that as well. It took a while to get all the free agents on the same page, and once they were playing together and Vick was healthy, the Eagles looked pretty good. No team in this division looks that good, so Philadelphia should contend for a playoff spot next year too.
The Chiefs may keep Romeo Crennel on as head coach, replacing the fired Todd Haley. Good luck with that.
The NFL continues to take measures to address player safety and how teams attend to injured players, but they continue to refuse to punish the Browns for the way they mishandled Colt McCoy's injury. I wonder how much of that is because of Mike Holmgren's presence ... one of the old guard, with his buddies looking out for him? (And why isn't the NFLPA filing complaints about it?)

OK, enough about last week. New Orleans, New York, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh will win this weekend.

Lions season outlook, wild-card round

2012-01-07T13:17:00.000-05:00

So McCarthy did rest a number of starters, and yet the Lions' defense, not the offense, was the guilty party in the resulting loss. With Rodgers, Starks, and Jennings on the bench, the Packers still rolled up 45 points on what was supposed to be one of the better defenses in the NFL in a game that meant so much more to the Lions than the Packers. Of course the Falcons crushed a Tampa Bay team that soon-to-be-ex-coach Raheem Morris had lost weeks ago, so now Detroit travels to New Orleans and the Falcons play the Giants.

Massey gives the Lions a 22% chance to beat New Orleans, so that makes them heavy underdogs, and that sounds about right. The overall path to the Super Bowl, if there is one, probably doesn't change much: assuming New Orleans would beat Atlanta, the Lions would have faced Green Bay in the divisional playoff round if they beat New York, and of course that's who they'll play if they manage to pull off this upset. I do think the Giants are an easier team for the Lions to beat, but that doesn't matter now.

The Playoff Odds report for the wild-card round:

NFC championship appearance: 11.0%, 5th in NFC/8th overall
NFC title: 4.4%, down 0.2 points
Super Bowl win: 2.1%, unchanged

Cincinnati gets a team hoping not to play its fourth-string quarterback. Detroit gets a team with a guy who just set a few NFL records. (Of course, he also plays for the only team to lose a playoff game to a team with a losing record, so there's that.) The Lions were missing three key defensive players in the earlier matchup on Sunday night, and they were never really in the game. That was partly because the offense couldn't find a rhythm in the noisy Superdome, and that aspect won't change today. Suh is, of course, back from suspension, and both Houston and Delmas should play; Mark Ingram is, to my knowledge, the only notable injury for New Orleans. (UPDATE: after I published this, Lance Moore was declared out for the Saints. So now they're down to eleventy-minus-one receivers.) The Lions will need all three to contribute if they are to pull off the upset. Detroit has to get pressure on Brees, they have to keep Stafford upright, and they can't afford to give away points on special teams.

It would take magic for the Lions to win this game, and this year, I think the magic is in just being in the playoffs. Saints, 34-17.

Last week: predicted 20-17, actual 41-45

Current mood: just happy to be here

Lions season outlook, week 17 and beyond

2011-12-28T14:57:00.002-05:00

A rout of San Diego puts the Lions in the playoffs, and a New Orleans rout of Atlanta gives Detroit the #5 seed for now. The opening line for the Detroit-Green Bay game was Packers -1.5, but that's already shifted to Detroit -3.5 ... clearly Las Vegas or bettors (or both) see McCarthy resting his starters in a mostly-meaningless game for the Packers. Atlanta plays a late game, so they'll know at kickoff whether or not they have a shot at the #5 seed.

Massey projections:
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog
Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

We'll have to wait for next week to find out more ... Massey's new layout makes it really hard to draw any conclusions. Sagarin has the Lions as a slight favorite against either Dallas or the Giants and a 6- to 6.5-point underdog against New Orleans or San Francisco, so that #5 seed is a big deal.

The Playoff Odds report for Week 17:

Mean wins: 10.2, up 0.3
NFC title: 4.6%, up 1.3 points
Super Bowl win: 2.1%, up 0.7 points

Obviously a playoff spot is secured, and that probably is the cause for the increase in NFC and Super Bowl title chances.

The Lions didn't struggle at all last week. It was 24-0 at halftime, and San Diego was never really close. I believe Detroit will have the same focus on the road, even if in front of a hostile crowd and likely in inclement weather. (Weather Underground says otherwise, though.) I'll assume that the Packers don't play Rodgers much, if at all. Detroit will move the ball fairly well, and Flynn won't do nearly as well against a fired-up defense. It won't be easy, but the Lions will lock down the #5 seed. Twenty years ago, they had a similar situation, but it was for the division title and a first-round bye, and it was against the AFC's #1 seed, the Bills. With Kelly, Thomas, and Reed on the sidelines, Buffalo was still able to hold down Barry Sanders and company, but Detroit stole a win in overtime, 17-14, finishing 12-4 (still a franchise record for regular-season wins) and setting the stage for their only playoff win in modern history. There will be no playoff home game, barring some crazy upsets (right, Colts fans?), but still ... Lions, 20-17.

Last week: predicted 31-26, actual 38-10

Current mood: ready for this "playoffs" thing I've heard so much about

NFL week 16: what's left?

2011-12-27T14:00:00.000-05:00

Here's a quick rundown of the playoff standings and possibilities:

Green Bay has locked up the #1 seed in the NFC. (It's not "homefield advantage throughout the playoffs", as announcers like to say, because the Super Bowl is at a neutral site.)
San Francisco leads New Orleans for the #2 seed by virtue of a better conference record. To hold on, they just need the same result at St. Louis that the Saints get against Carolina: a win clinches it, a tie will do it if New Orleans does not win, and the 49ers can get it even with a loss if the Panthers beat the Saints. These are both 1:00 games, so Sean Payton can't rest Brees (now that he has the record) and his starters as he could if the 49ers played first.
Prediction: The 49ers will beat the Rams and finish with the #2 seed.
The 8-7 Cowboys and 8-7 Giants meet on Sunday night for the NFC East title and #4 seed. A Dallas win puts the Cowboys in; a tie or a Giants win puts New York in the playoffs.
Prediction: New York sweeps the Cowboys and makes the playoffs. Tony Romo is blamed for not winning the game from the bench.
Detroit holds the #5 seed at 10-5, while Atlanta is #6 at 9-6. Both teams have clinched playoff spots with the next-best team at 8-7 (see above) but no better than 8-7-1. Detroit visits Green Bay and Atlanta hosts Tampa Bay. Atlanta holds the tiebreaker thanks to a head-to-head win over Detroit, but the Falcons have to beat Tampa Bay and hope the Packers play their starters against the Lions to take the #5 seed back. The NFC North game is early and the NFC South game is late, so Mike Smith could rest his starters for a third game against New Orleans if the Lions don't lose to Green Bay at 1:00.
Prediction: Mike McCarthy will rest his starters; the Lions will take advantage and win at Green Bay, finishing with the #5 seed.

New England has a one-game lead over Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the #1 seed in the AFC, but would lose a tiebreaker to either team. To hold on, the Patriots need either a tie or a win over Buffalo, or losses by both AFC North teams. Baltimore has a head-to-head sweep of Pittsburgh and thus has the divisional tiebreaker: if Buffalo wins, a Baltimore win gives the Ravens the #1 seed. A win by Buffalo plus a loss or tie by Baltimore means a Pittsburgh win over Cleveland puts the Steelers #1. The team that finishes second in the AFC North gets the #5 seed.
Prediction: New England crushes the Bills and gets the #1 seed. Baltimore loses to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh beats Cleveland, giving the Steelers the division and the #2 seed. Baltimore is #5.
The Texans are locked into the #3 seed; their loss to the Ravens plus the Baltimore advantage over Pittsburgh means that the only way the AFC North champ finishes with the same record as Houston is if it's Baltimore.
Like in the NFC, the weakest division is up for grabs: the winner gets the #4 seed. Unlike in the NFC, the second-place team in the AFC West could still get a wild-card spot. Denver holds the tiebreaker over both Oakland and San Diego based on record in common games, so only the Raiders and Broncos have playoff possibilities. If Denver matches Oakland, they win the division, and if Oakland has a better result, they win.
Prediction: TEBOW fails to deliver again as Kyle Orton knocks the Broncos out of the playoffs. (There's a lesson in there somewhere. Too bad Josh McDaniels isn't around to learn it.)
Denver can't get a wild-card spot: either they win the division or they're out. That leaves Oakland, Cincinnati, and the Jets with chances to finish as the #6 seed. Cincinnati is 9-6 and controls its destiny: anything but a loss puts them in. They also get in with a loss plus not-wins by Oakland and New York. The Raiders need a win plus a Cincinnati loss (a win over the Jets gives them the tiebreaker there); the Jets need a win plus losses by both the Bengals and Raiders.
Prediction: Cincinnati's win over Baltimore gives them the #6 seed.

That would mean that the wild-card round would be Detroit at New York, Atlanta at New Orleans, Baltimore at Oakland, and Cincinnati at Houston.

In non-playoff news:

Great job by the Colts to pull out two wins from a disappointing season. That makes a huge difference, especially for the fans. Yes, there are fools who believe that Andrew Luck will make the Colts Super Bowl contenders "just like Peyton did", and yes, having a marquee QB makes it a lot easier to succeed in the playoffs, but Luck is no sure thing, and I don't know that you could even get players to tank. Indianapolis still has a slight advantage in strength of schedule over the Rams, so they might get the #1 pick even if they win one more game.
Raheem Morris says he isn't going to fire himself. Funny, that's what Matt Millen said too, and he actually could have done it. Sure, maybe last year's Bucs weren't as good as 10-6, but that was their record, and that's a lot better than 4-12. Carolina has a terrible defense and is going to finish with 6 wins. What does that say about the future for Tampa Bay?
Non-playoff draft position will be fun to figure out. There are four NFC teams at 7-8 and four AFC teams at 8-7. Expect tiebreakers to have an impact outside the playoff chase as well as within it. (And note that a 4-12 team could pick sixth this year!)
Minnesota catches a huge break, playing bad Chicago next week. A win there would make them 4-12, which would be two games worse than last season, but understandable given the Lions' resurgence. Still, Leslie Frazier has to be feeling heat. With Adrian Peterson out indefinitely (maybe he'll be healthy for Week 1 in 2012, maybe not), suddenly the Vikings have to determine whether or not they'll have a competent passing attack next season. Joe Webb apparently wasn't the answer, but continues to look good as long as he's not the starter. Christian Ponder is young and shows promise, but he's going to have to play better to help Frazier keep his job. Minnesota is certainly doing nothing to encourage the construction of a new stadium (at taxpayers' expense, naturally), and it's hard to picture a city wanting this NFL team.
The two teams with the best strength of victory are Indianapolis (Houston and Tennessee) and St. Louis (New Orleans and Cleveland).

Lions season outlook, week 16

2011-12-20T15:19:00.003-05:00

Yet again, another close call. Yet again, it came down to the final play, and yes, a 65-yard field goal is still a viable attempt if Sebastian Janikowski is your kicker. The Lions held on, though, and escaped Oakland with a huge win. Instead of being just a game ahead of the sub-wild-card pack, Detroit is now two games up, with their magic number being 1 ... a Lions win, or a loss by each of the teams that don't have a tiebreaker edge over Detroit (Seattle, Chicago, and Arizona), will give them a wild-card spot. Two wins plus at least one Atlanta loss will give them the #5 seed and an "easier" game at the NFC East champion. (Of course if it's Dallas, the Lions already have good memories from a road game there.)

Massey projections:
Week 16: San Diego, slight favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog (moved up)

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

San Diego remains about the same thanks to the Chargers' renaissance. Green Bay drops a little, but of course that is assuming the starters play the entire way. They likely won't, as the Packers should crush the injured Bears and clinch the top seed next week. Without a perfect season at stake, the last game should be meaningless.

Unfortunately, Massey's site has changed, and expected wins are no longer available.

The Playoff Odds report for Week 16:

Mean wins: 9.9, up 0.5
Playoffs: 85.6%, up 11.5 points
NFC title: 3.3%, up 0.9 points
Super Bowl win: 1.4%, up 0.4 points

Winning a 50/50 game gives you an extra half-win. Chicago's collapse is complete, the Giants throw away wild-card hopes, so it's up to Seattle to make a wild-card run. (They have most of the remaining playoff hopes at 10.9%.)

The Lions did struggle against the Raiders' defense, except when it came to Calvin Johnson, and that seems to be a Mrs. Lincoln situation. The Lions were lucky to hold on for the win. Fortunately, they'll be at home this week, but unfortunately, San Diego has figured out how to play again. Instead of an easy win, this should be a close game. I believe Detroit will clinch a playoff win at home, though. Lions, 31-26.

Last week: predicted 24-14, actual 28-27

Current mood: excited

NFL week 15: failure

2011-12-19T12:31:00.003-05:00

Not on the part of the Lions, of course, but for many other teams, opportunities were lost this week. Several of those teams won't get another chance like the one they had Sunday.

NFC

Green Bay lost a game that was essentially meaningless: San Francisco was the only team that could catch them in the first place, and that would require the Packers losing out and the 49ers winning out. All that this did was take the pressure of deciding how hard to play in Week 17 off Mike McCarthy, to the delight of Lions fans. Green Bay has a guaranteed win next week at home against the toothless Bears, and after that, McCarthy can send out the starters for a token series against Detroit and let them rest. (Side note: it's a good thing Green Bay ran away with the division, because look at the schedule. How on earth did the Packers get both Chicago and Detroit at home in the cold to close the season, while the Bears visit Green Bay and Minnesota? If you're going to set up more divisional games in December and January, then split them up better.)
San Francisco's loss to Arizona was a big deal, and not just because it gave the Cardinals hope for a wild-card spot (at least for one week). That plus a loss on Monday night would have all but knocked the 49ers out of a first-round bye, and if the 49ers somehow lost their last two games (losing at Seattle is a possibility; at St. Louis, well ...), they could have fallen to fourth if Dallas wins their last two games, thanks to that Week 2 overtime loss. The win over Pittsburgh locked the NFC East champ into the #4 seed and kept the 49ers ahead of New Orleans thanks to their conference record.
For a quarter, it looked like New Orleans might be giving Atlanta and San Francisco a big chance to grab the #2 and #3 seeds ... and then the Saints remembered that Minnesota is terrible, blowing out the Vikings to record their 11th win of the season, the third straight season they've accomplished that. No other NFL team has a streak that long. With Atlanta and Carolina at home (again, how does this happen?), New Orleans should keep the pressure on the 49ers for that #2 seed.
Dallas got their loss out of the way on Saturday night, then sat back and watched as the Giants lost a golden opportunity to move back into the division lead. However, there are four teams at 7-7 who'd love to pass Dallas in the wild-card race, such as it is, should they continue to stumble, and even Philadelphia has a chance at Dallas' NFC East spot. The Cowboys will have no one but themselves to blame if they do blow it, though: they can knock the Eagles out at home on Saturday and then hold off the Giants in New York. If they do win this week, the Jets may well put the Cowboys in, although neither New York team looks particularly playoff-worthy at this point.
Atlanta, on the other hand, had an excellent week: they won easily on Saturday, and Chicago and the Giants lost on Sunday. The Falcons still control the race for #5 in the NFC, but they can't afford to think they have it locked up. Detroit's schedule just got easier with Green Bay's loss, and the Falcons visit New Orleans on Monday night. A loss there could well send them to New Orleans again in the wild-card round (if the 49ers finish with the #2 seed), rather than what seems like a much easier game in Dallas or New York.
Detroit was about 5 minutes away from falling into a pack of 7-7 wolves when they realized that this year, they have an offense capable of coming back in just about any situation. They roared back to knock off the Raiders and hang on to the #6 seed. (I think Calvin Johnson is still open as I type this.) 391 yards passing, 4 touchdowns, zero interceptions ... Stafford did have the one sack/fumble/touchdown, but other than that, he played well when he needed to. The Lions were 8 of 17 on third downs, Johnson had 9 catches for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns, and while the Detroit defense did give up a number of big plays, they forced a number of punts as well (Oakland was just 1 of 9 on third down), and that was enough to set the stage for yet another double-digit comeback. The Lions can't keep digging those holes, though, and they can't keep committing penalties. Even if the two horse-collar calls were crap (there's only one penalty called less consistently and accurately than that one, roughing the passer; the one on Avril was particularly bad), it's hard to argue with the rest. Discipline is still a problem. It's no surprise that Schwartz didn't stick to his guns about benching players who commit post-possession fouls (although I'm not sure there were any Sunday); the Lions just don't have the depth to do it now.
Seattle does not have an easy road to a playoff spot. They have to win out and have Detroit lose out, which sounds great until you realize that Seattle's last two games are home vs. San Francisco and at Arizona, who might also be playing for that final wild-card spot. Actually, Seattle could also sneak in if Atlanta loses out, but because the Falcons beat the Seahawks, Atlanta holds that tiebreaker, so it can't be for the #6 spot. A three-way tie with Atlanta, Detroit, and Seattle would work, because Seattle would have a better conference record (after Atlanta's sweep of Detroit and Seattle gives them the #5 seed) ... and if you put the Giants in at 9-7 for a four-way tie, Seattle actually gets the #5 seed themselves thanks to that conference record. All that said, Seattle needs a lot of help. Even if they don't get it, Pete Carroll's team has done a good job getting this far with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. (And here I thought San Francisco was going to win the division by six games. It turns out the NFC East might be the division with no teams over .500.)
The Bears are done. You knew that already. It's interesting to see how important Cutler and Forte are to Chicago ... last year, with Stafford out and Best banged up, the Lions still won their last four games, two of which were against teams in playoff contention (although the Packers did lose Aaron Rodgers to injury in their game). This year, with much better defense and special teams than Detroit had last year, and with arguably a better offensive line, the Bears have nothing. I think Chicago just doesn't have enough talent on offense to get through injury problems, and Martz still doesn't impress me as an offensive coordinator. (There's also the decision to pass on an experienced backup. Imagine if Carson Palmer were in Chicago ...)
The Giants seem determined to miss the playoffs. A win over Washington would have put them back in first place with two games to go, but the inexplicable loss at home to Washington means that they could actually be out of the playoffs by the time the Cowboys visit in Week 17. A loss to the Jets (or wins by Detroit and Atlanta) means that the Giants can't get a wild-card spot, and if Dallas wins as well, the Cowboys get the division. This is a game that New York had to win; losing a game like this makes you wonder if they'd have a chance even if they did make the playoffs. Most of the Giants' losses are understandable, especially with Seattle at 7-7 now, but being swept by Washington is what will have New York players watching TV in January.
Arizona nearly blew their slim chances at a playoff spot, then rallied for an overtime win (how can you not cover Larry Fitzgerald?). Next up is a road game at Cincinnati, who's also fighting for a playoff spot. If they survive that game, they still need Detroit to lose to San Diego, and then in Week 17, an Arizona win and a Detroit loss would give the Cardinals the edge based on conference record.
Philadelphia is still in the hunt as well. A win over Dallas next week pulls the Eagles to within a game of first place; if the Giants lose to the Jets and beat Dallas, and Philadelphia beats Washington, the Eagles get the division thanks to their 5-1 division record. I know, it sounds crazy, but then someone should have put the East away by now, and that hasn't happened yet. The Eagles can't get a wild-card spot, but they can win the division as long as the Giants cooperate.
Carolina is definitely an improved team on offense. If they can add a couple of solid players on defense, this could be a pretty good team next year. The South is a tough division, so they've got a ways to go before they can contend for it, but the Panthers are quite a bit better than they were last season. There haven't been many games where they looked like a 1-15 team: they've only lost three games by double digits, and all of those were to playoff contenders (Atlanta, Detroit, and Tennessee).
Washington's had a bad season, in part because they have bad quarterbacks, but they swept the Giants, and that means a lot in D.C. They should beat the hapless Vikings next week, and then they could potential derail the Eagles' long-shot bid for a division title in Week 17.
Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has road games left against Carolina and Atlanta (scheduling fail), so they'll probably end up 4-12. Not good for a team that was 10-6 last season and just a few plays from making the playoffs. The Bucs need a lot of help on both offense and defense; I don't know that you can put a lot of this on Raheem Morris, but it's easier to change coaches than to change players, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Tampa Bay look for a new coach next season. (Of course the Glazers may be sending more money overseas to pay for their loss-leader EPL team, so perhaps Morris will get to coach through the end of his contract.)
Minnesota has two winnable games left, so they might not look as bad as they are when the season is over. (Washington is unpredictable, so that might not be an easy win, but look at the Bears and tell me that they can beat the Vikings.) Christian Ponder is getting valuable playing time, but that's about all Leslie Frazier can take from this season. The offense is bad, the defense is bad, special teams are bad ... if anything happens to Jared Allen, what's left of the Vikings' pass rush will disappear. It's easy to see why QB Redacted retired. Would you want to have finished your career with this team?
St. Louis' remaining schedule: at Pittsburgh, home vs. San Francisco. The Rams have gotten noticeably worse this season (they weren't anywhere near as good as their 7-9 record would suggest), and that has to be a problem for Steve Spagnuolo. As Detroit fans will tell you, you can't just plug a highly-drafted QB into a bad offense and expect him to win games for you, even if the offense already has one of the better backs in the league. (Will somebody rescue Steven Jackson already? He deserves better than this.) The Rams have problems on both sides of the ball, and I don't know that one more draft is going to fix all of them. It doesn't help matters that the rest of the division seems to have left them in the dust.

AFC

The Patriots' defense still doesn't look very good, and yet New England now has a one-game lead on the entire conference with two weeks left. Home games against Miami and Buffalo virtually guarantee the Patriots a 13-win season, which means a first-round bye at worst and the top seed at best. (Favorable scheduling.) I know that not too many playoff games end up as 40-38 shootouts, but it wasn't that long ago that Indianapolis figured out how to get its sieve-like defense to resemble a playoff-caliber defense come playoff time, and it worked very well. (Facing a team with Rex Grossman at QB in the Super Bowl didn't hurt either.)
The Ravens are in, and they will be no worse than #5 with a win or a Cincinnati loss Saturday, but they had a chance to win out and take the division, and instead they had to wait (and wait and wait) for San Francisco to stop Pittsburgh, keeping Baltimore in first place in the North. The Bengals will probably be in the wild-card race in any event, so the season finale at Cincinnati will be an important game for both teams. Baltimore does not want to face a high-powered offense, not as long as Joe Flacco continues to struggle. The Chargers sat back and made Flacco check down again and again, and the Ravens simply couldn't put together enough short passes to sustain drives. Other AFC defenses have taken note.
We knew the Texans couldn't keep winning with a third-string QB. They're safely in the playoffs, but it would be nice to get a bye as well. Houston should beat Indianapolis on the road on Thursday, and then a win in the season finale against Tennessee will have them rooting for a Pittsburgh loss. The worst Houston will likely be is third; the TEBOWs would win a tiebreaker based on conference record, but that would require two Houston losses and two TEBOW wins, and I don't think God cares enough to make that happen.
TEBOWTEBOWTEBOW failed once again to defeat an actual team with an actual offense. Thankfully, Belichick knows enough not to play a prevent defense the entire fourth quarter against a guy who can't read coverage and can't throw well. John Fox is well aware that a run-heavy team simply can't compete in the current NFL, but he has no choice: TEBOW isn't going to become an NFL quarterback, and the fan base wasn't going to sit quietly and let a real quarterback work through some problems when TEBOW was on the bench, waiting for his chance to show what a star he could be. It would be ironic if Orton led Kansas City to a win in Denver in Week 17 to knock the TEBOWs out of the playoffs. (It might also serve Elway right. He knows better than to let this kind of situation develop. You need to support your coach and GM when they make good but unpopular decisions. Without that support, they have to do things like run an option offense in one of the most passing-heavy eras of all time. That's like putting your money in a savings account when stocks are providing 10% dividends.)
Baltimore neatly wrapped a present and put it under Mike Tomlin's Christmas tree: a first-round bye. Unfortunately, the Steelers returned it unopened, and they remain the #5 seed. If Roethlisberger's health continues to be an issue, even a win over St. Louis isn't a guarantee (ask New Orleans), and of course the Steelers must still get some help to get that first-round bye. The #1 seed is pretty much out of reach thanks to that loss on Monday night, and as long as Houston has the same record as Pittsburgh, the Steelers can't count on getting a bye even if Baltimore does stumble down the stretch.
The Jets got blown out by a team barely in the playoff race. Their margin for error isn't gone yet, but Cincinnati is now tied with the Jets, and three teams are just a game back. There is plenty of time for New York to play themselves out of the playoffs: they could even lose their tiebreaker edge over Cincinnati if both teams split, but New York's loss to is Miami. (The Jets currently have an edge in common games, so an extra conference loss would swing the tiebreaker back to the Bengals.) First, though, they need to focus on the Giants. Eli giveth and Eli taketh away; for the Jets to feel good about postseason play, they need to hope for the former.
Cincinnati gets a little scheduling help, but not much, for their late-season playoff drive: their last two games are at home against Arizona and Baltimore, both playoff contenders. Ah, that early-season loss to the non-TEBOW Broncos ... flip that result and Cincinnati is 9-5 and still hoping for a share of the division title. Instead, they may need to win out and hope for some help. With one of the wild-card spots already taken by the second-place team in the North, that leaves just one spot, so the Bengals need to end Arizona's playoff hopes and then look for some help.
Oh, Tennessee. Of all the times to stumble ... a win would have put the Titans in the #6 spot thanks to the Jets' loss, but instead Tennessee is a game back and has to rely on the "win out and get help" scenario that so many teams hope to avoid this time of year. Jacksonville will be no sure win, not with the Jaguars' defense playing as well as they have, and of course Houston will have something to play for during the final week, so that game isn't a guarantee either. Mike Munchak has to be thinking about his decision to start an injured Hasselbeck against the speed-rushing Colts defense. Indianapolis didn't get to him much, but they did harass him a lot and force quite a few short passes. Hasselbeck averaged just 5.6 YPA (better than Orlovsky's awful 4.8, though), and his two interceptions were both significant (one for a touchdown, the other one for a touchback). Combine that with another plodding game from Chris Johnson (one carry for 35 yards, 14 other carries for a total of 20 yards), and Tennessee doesn't really look like a playoff team after all. Winless team? Not any more.
Similarly, Oakland was playing pretty good defense against Detroit, except for covering Calvin Johnson. Time and time again, Stafford found Johnson open deep against the Raiders' secondary (oh Al, if you'd only seen these throws), and in the fourth quarter, Oakland was unable to stop the Lions from erasing a 13-point deficit, pushing the Lions to the edge of the playoffs and the Raiders to the edge of elimination. With Kyle Orton looking good in Kansas City and the defense coming to life in San Diego, Oakland's last two games don't look so easy any more. Hue Jackson's done a good job of keeping the momentum that Tom Cable built, but the Raiders may end up regretting the two games that got away. (Especially the loss to Buffalo. How bad does that look now that the Bills are well out of playoff contention? At least Detroit will finish with no fewer than 9 wins.)
San Diego isn't out of the picture any more, but they don't have any more home games, and their two remaining games are at Detroit and at Oakland, so to make the playoffs, they'll have to beat the Raiders for sure (or lose out on a tiebreaker) and then hope Denver struggles again. Defense is still an issue for San Diego (Baltimore's offense isn't that good, so stopping the Ravens in San Diego isn't as impressive as you might think), and Detroit is currently fourth in the league in scoring, so expect the Chargers' run to end in Ford Field. (The Lions have put up 48, 45, and 28 points against AFC West teams. I wonder what the NFL record is for most points in interconference games in one season?)
Like Philadelphia, Kansas City still has a shot at the division and no shot at a wild card. (Seven conference losses, including one to the Jets, will prevent them from winning any tiebreakers.) The Chiefs' last two games are home vs. Oakland and at Denver. If they win both, they'll be 8-8. A Denver loss at Buffalo plus a San Diego loss at Detroit means that both the Raiders and Chargers will be 7-8 going into their Week 17 showdown; the Chargers could even beat Detroit as long as they lose to Oakland. If no team is better than 8-8, Kansas City would win thanks to a 4-2 division record.
Miami is out of the playoffs, but they look a lot better at 5-9 than they did at 0-7. With games against the Patriots and Jets, the Dolphins will play a role in the playoff race even though they have no stake in it themselves.
Buffalo's tailspin continues, and with Denver and New England left, the Bills will likely finish 5-11. Some of that is from playing a tough schedule, but some is because the defense is bad. The Bills have a long way to go to be a contending team, and they'll have to do it in a division with a perennial contender in New England and another halfway-decent team in New York.
Like Miami, Cleveland can play spoiler, facing Baltimore and Pittsburgh in their last two games. Nothing much seems to have changed for the Browns: they're still a bad team that occasionally plays good games. I'd like to suggest patience for Cleveland fans, because teams can't be turned around quickly, but it would be understandable if they chose not to listen. The Browns haven't had consecutive winning seasons or playoff appearances since 1988-89. (The Lions did the former in 1999-2000 and the latter in 1994-95.) They've also lost 10 or more games in eight of the last nine seasons, with the exception being their 10-6 non-playoff season in 2007. (You know, the year that Derek Anderson looked like an NFL quarterback.) The Marty Schottenheimer era is a distant memory, and it'll be a couple of years before we know if Pat Shurmur has the Browns on the right track.
The Jaguars are just playing out the string. They can avoid tying the franchise record for losses by beating either Tennessee or Indianapolis, which would seem realistic given Sunday's results. (If they beat both, it'll be the 14th time in 17 seasons that they'll have won at least 6 games. Not bad for an expansion franchise in a tough division.)
Speaking of franchise records, the Colts avoided setting one by picking up a win against Tennessee. (They were also 1-15 in 1991.) Indianapolis hadn't had a losing season in 10 years, so younger Colts fans are probably shocked that this is happening. They've never known anything but winning. Older fans could tell them about unimpressive teams and losing seasons and "Playoffs?" (That was, I believe, the press conference after a 40-21 loss to San Francisco in 2001. The Colts fell to 4-6, but were still in the playoff race, I think, which is what prompted the question that led to the reaction I'm sure you've seen.) In a couple of years, maybe the Colts can win again. It won't happen next year. There are too many holes to fill, and an aging Peyton Manning can't hide them all.

Games to watch:

Monday night, Atlanta at New Orleans. Anything but a Falcons win gives New Orleans the division. An Atlanta win or tie puts the Falcons in the playoffs, and a win keeps their division hopes alive.
Saturday, Oakland at Kansas City. The winner stays on Denver's heels, the loser is nearly finished (Oakland) or done (Kansas City).
Saturday, Arizona at Cincinnati. The Bengals are closer to a playoff spot; the Cardinals need two wins plus help.
Saturday, NY Giants at NY Jets. The Jets are in a better spot than the Giants, but neither team can afford a loss at this point.
Saturday, San Diego at Detroit. A Chargers win gives them a shot at the playoffs, a Lions win puts them in for the first time in 12 years.
Saturday, Philadelphia at Dallas. The Cowboys clinch the division with a win and a Giants loss or tie; the Eagles need a win plus help.
Saturday, San Francisco at Seattle. The 49ers chase the #2 seed while Seattle hopes for two wins plus help.

Lions season outlook, week 15

2011-12-14T10:44:00.000-05:00

That was close. For a few minutes, it looked like the Lions would throw away an opportunity to move toward their first playoff spot in 12 seasons (an opportunity, as it turned out, to make up ground on every NFC wild-card contender except Atlanta). Fortunately, the refs helped Detroit on the final play, and instead of getting an embarrassing loss to a weak team with a third-string QB, the Lions hang on to pick up their 8th win, something that hasn't happened since 2000. It's turtles all the way down from here, though: one important game followed by another important game ...

Massey projections:
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, slight favorite (moved down)
Week 17: at Green Bay, overwhelming underdog (moved down)

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

San Diego drops again as the Chargers seem less likely to have thrown the season away and Detroit nearly loses a game they should have won easily. Green Bay does slide, as I thought it would. Expected wins are up a tick to 9.28, which is unusual given that two of their three remaining games dropped in probability.

The Playoff Odds report is below, and this time, it's just the injury-adjusted version:

Mean wins: 9.4, up 0.2
Playoffs: 74.1%, up 8.1 points
NFC title: 2.4%, down 0.1 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, unchanged

Nothing unusual here: Chicago and Dallas rocket downward, with Atlanta and Detroit the beneficiaries. NFC and Super Bowl chances are unlikely to change much, if at all.

Stafford did not carve up the Minnesota secondary. Jared Allen did cry about the officiating, but in this case, his complaints were justified: that was absolutely a face mask penalty that went uncalled, and bad calls in game X don't justify bad calls in game Y. Still, the defense swarmed Ponder and Webb (6 turnovers, 4 sacks, 2 touchdowns – I really should have started them) and built a big enough lead to give Detroit the chance to hold on when the second half, for a change, did not go their way. That should happen this week as well. Carson Palmer has played just one good defense, and he actually had a decent day against Chicago ... but he's thrown 3 or more picks in three of his seven games, all of which came against teams with average to below-average pass defenses. Detroit's pass defense is second in the league. If Houston or Delmas is healthy, this could be ugly for Oakland; if the Lions aren't careful, though, they could struggle against the Raiders' defense. (Oakland does give up a lot on the ground, but with Kevin Smith injured, the Lions would have no one to take advantage of that.) I think they will be careful, and I think Detroit's defense will give them their ninth win of the season. Lions, 24-14.

Last week: predicted 37-21, actual 34-28

Current mood: cautiously optimistic

NFL week 14: separation for real

2011-12-13T16:11:00.000-05:00

Maybe it was a good thing I skipped a week. Well, I didn't do it on purpose – I meant to finish last week's post and never did – but it worked out that way. Now it's easier to see what's going on, playoff-wise, and so we'll proceed in seed order rather than by game. I'll break down what needs to happen and what could be a problem in the last three weeks.

NFC

Green Bay just has to keep Aaron Rodgers healthy. They've basically clinched home field throughout, with a three-game lead over New Orleans and San Francisco, so it's just a matter of playing out the string. Of course they ought to try to win every game (or give the fans refunds; tickets cost the same amount for games that teams throw away as they do for games where teams try), maybe. You have to balance rust against injury: the Colts haven't always managed that well, so maybe it'd be better to let the offense run the remaining teams off the field?
San Francisco clinched their division, but they're suddenly in a battle for the #2 seed with New Orleans, thanks to Arizona's upset win. They may get a break, though, if cheap-shot artist James Harrison is suspended for this week's game in San Francisco. Pittsburgh is the 49ers' lone remaining threat on the schedule, and anything that makes that game more likely to be a San Francisco win is a good thing. I don't think Harbaugh wants to see Alex Smith trying to run the offense in the Superdome: as it turns out, while Smith may be better now than he has been before, he's still no more than a mediocre QB, and that won't be enough to erase a deficit if the 49ers face one in the playoffs.
By the same token, New Orleans wants to win out and hope for a 49ers loss so that they can get a first-round bye and home field in that matchup with San Francisco, should it present itself. (How big is that loss to St. Louis now?) The Saints have a similar schedule: one tough game, home against Atlanta, surrounded by winnable games. The Saints' defense is still bad, and there's always the issue of a dome team playing outdoors in bad weather. I know, you're saying that San Francisco isn't in the Snow Belt, and my response to you is that I've been to San Francisco for Thanksgiving and Christmas, and it is not like weather in Los Angeles. It may not be Green Bay, but it may be cool and wet, and Brees doesn't have years of experience playing in that weather. (Yes, he did at Purdue, occasionally, but even then, the Boilers went to warm-weather bowl games in Texas and California.)
Now we get to the fun parts. The Giants were in danger of being steamrolled by the entire NFC playoff field, or at least most of it, until they snuck past Dallas and into the East lead. (I still think that these late time outs are crap. What is this, baseball?) New York's conference record is bad enough that they'll lose a tiebreaker at that level, and both the Lions and Falcons have advantages in common games, so barring a collapse by one or both, the Giants must win the division to make the playoffs. That makes the season finale against Dallas a must-win game. New York probably has to beat Washington and the Jets, too, but Dallas is so unpredictable that maybe that won't be necessary.
For a while, it looked like Atlanta was handing Detroit a nice Christmas present, but then they remembered that they don't want to play New Orleans or San Francisco in the first round, and they held off Carolina. The Falcons are in a good position at 8-5, and they can probably lose to New Orleans and still get in, but Jacksonville and possibly Tampa Bay will have interim coaches in place, and those games are always harder to predict. Remember, this is the team that scored just 13 points in Tampa during their first meeting. Atlanta can't afford to drop the return game as well.
Speaking of presents, Detroit watched two of the three teams directly above them in the playoff hunt lose on Sunday. The loss to Atlanta will break any ties with the Falcons, so the Lions are still sixth, and they'll lose a tiebreaker with Chicago, but they have the head-to-head edge on Dallas and should hold off the Giants as well, so as long as the Bears keep falling, Detroit will keep planning for another January game. Stafford has to stop making poor decisions, though. It should also be cause for concern that the offense generated just 20 points at home against an unimpressive defense. Ironically, only San Francisco has a noticeably better defense among NFC playoff contenders, so it isn't like the Lions' OL should be getting run over in the playoffs, but then Detroit has already lost to Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Atlanta this season, so it's not like they've shown they can beat a playoff-caliber team. (Yes, they beat Chicago, the team with no QB and with an injured star RB, and yes, they beat Dallas, the team with significant end-of-game execution issues.)
Chicago is done. Yes, they have tiebreaker advantages over Atlanta, Detroit, and Dallas, but they have to win one more than the former two to get back in the picture, which means beating a hot Seattle team when Matt Forte won't be in the lineup, beating the Packers (which is no sure thing even if McCarthy rests his starters), or winning at Minnesota, and even that wouldn't necessarily help them enough. Given their struggles against AFC West teams, I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago ends up 7-9. All Bears fans who thought the NFC championship was evidence that Caleb Hanie should be the starter, you can go to Denver and root for TEBOWTEBOWTEBOW.
As long as Dallas stays within a game of the Giants, they can steal the division in Week 17, but that may mean beating Philadelphia, the team that crushed them 34-7 in October. I'm not sure that Jason Garrett and Tony Romo can keep their composure for a full game any more. A wild-card spot is unlikely, with both Chicago and Detroit having tiebreaker advantages and Atlanta basically being even. DeMarco Murray's injury is big, more because of the depth he provides than because of his skill itself. (After all, Felix Jones had a great game against the Giants. Sadly, I started Brandon Saine instead because I thought Murray would get all the touches.) Look at the Lions as an example of a team that's struggled because of their lack of depth at RB.
Seattle isn't entirely out of the playoff picture, but they do need a lot of help. They would have to pass Atlanta because of their loss to the Falcons, and they'd have to pass Detroit unless they can beat San Francisco to improve their record in common games (and even that might not be enough), but either of those teams could conceivably lose out, I suppose. It's more likely that the Seahawks will simply look back at their wins over the Giants and Ravens as good signs for the future. Next year, they'll be saying that all Carroll needs is one more year before Seattle is ready to make a run ... and eventually they'll figure out that he's never going to build the Seahawks into a winning team, just like he never built the Jets or Patriots into winning teams. He's the kind of coach who succeeds only when he has a built-in advantage over you. (Did I say "cheating"? I did. Carroll at USC = cheating. Also, recruiting advantage.) There is no advantage like that in the NFL.
Arizona's upset of San Francisco gives them the faintest bit of hope of grabbing a wild-card spot, but like Seattle, they'd need a lot of help. Their schedule isn't the best, either: after a win over Cleveland, they visit Cincinnati and then host Seattle to end the season. Arizona might also have a common-games advantage over Detroit, so like Seattle, they will be rooting against the Lions the next three weeks. It's unlikely they'd do any damage once they get to the playoffs, though. Arizona is a bad team in a bad division, and they're riding a couple of fortunate bounces into an outside shot at the #6 seed. New Orleans or San Francisco would make short work of them in the wild-card round.
The Eagles, like the Giants and Cowboys, have to win the division to get in. It's not impossible, either: Philadelphia has a game left against the Cowboys and is already 3-1 in the division. Beat Dallas, Washington, and the Jets, and they finish 8-8 with a sweep of Dallas. If the Cowboys lost at least one of their other two, and if the Giants lose at least two, Philadelphia would win a tiebreaker (divisional record or head-to-head, respectively) and steal a home playoff spot in a season that arguably could have gotten Andy Reid fired. Of course, it's just as likely that they'll fall to the Cowboys and Giants, finish 6-10, and get Reid fired anyway. (And for what? Someone else who won't be able to get DeSean Jackson to be responsible?) Amazingly, Philadelphia has lost to four other teams ahead of them in the playoff race (Atlanta, Chicago, Arizona, and Seattle), so barring some crazy finish where they edge Detroit on strength of schedule, it's the East or nothing, starting Sunday against the Jets.
Hey, did you hear about that rookie quarterback that's engineered a massive turnaround in offense for his team? The one who can run option plays and throw the ball downfield too? No, idiot. The guy who can actually play the position reasonably well: Cam Newton. He's 14th in DYAR, above a number of notable QBs, and 16th in DVOA. (DYAR is a counting stat, so it gives Newton an edge over guys like TEBOW who didn't play a full season; DVOA is a rate stat. The combination gives you a better idea of where a particular QB's passing offense ranks among his peers.) Remember, this is an offense that was dead last in 2010. The defense is still miserable (thus the loss in Detroit, a game where the Panthers scored 35 points and lost by two scores), which is why you hear all that nonsense about the guy in Denver and nothing at all about a guy who has, at least for one season, demonstrated that he was worthy of being the #1 pick. He does run a bit more than your average QB, so it's possible that as defenses adjust to option plays, Newton's passing effectiveness will drop (see: Denard Robinson and Big Ten play), but at least there's hope for this guy as a long-term QB.
When Rex Grossman is making you look bad, your defense is bad. Remember when Washington was 3-1? Neither do I. (And boy, do the Giants and Cardinals wish they had those games back.) Donovan McNabb wouldn't have worked out this season, not after the Shanahans set fire to that bridge, burned it, sank it into the swamp, burned the swamp, and buried the ashes of the swamp, but with a longer offseason, they might have tried to find a veteran QB who had some ability. There's no evidence that either Grossman or Beck is a long-term solution. The good news is that Ryan Kerrigan is turning out to be a force up front. With a real QB and more help up front on both sides of the ball, this team might be all right in 2012, but with Snyder still pulling strings, it's just as likely that they'll sign Terrell Owens and Kerry Collins next year.
Tampa Bay will probably finish 4-12. Here are the teams that will have beaten them: Detroit (8-5), San Francisco (10-3), good Chicago (7-6), New Orleans (10-3), Houston (10-3), Green Bay (13-0), Tennessee (7-6), Carolina (4-9) twice, Jacksonville (4-9), and Atlanta (8-5). They also beat Atlanta and New Orleans. That's what's going to get Raheem Morris fired? This is the hardest schedule in the league, and failing to get a winning record out of it will mean that while all these young players are starting to improve, a whole new coaching staff will come in, probably implementing new offensive and defensive schemes. Does that sound like a good idea to you? Me either.
Minnesota, on the other hand ... the McNabb idea was a fiasco, Ponder has a ways to go before he becomes a competent NFL QB, and the defense is a shadow of what it's been in the past. (Insert comment about PEDs and the Williamses.) The Vikings have a long way to go to become respectable again, and they're facing the prospect that they may have to do it during a time when their three division rivals are also good. (Detroit isn't quite there yet, and Chicago may not stay there, but this year, there's a clear gap between those three and Minnesota, if also a gap between Green Bay and the next two.) It's also unlikely that Leslie Frazier will survive the rebuilding process. The Vikings are just another one of those teams that was held together just a bit too long: one too many reloading years. As a Lions fan, I have this to say: "HA HA!" (Yeah, that's for the comments when both teams were 6-10 last season. Who's laughing now? This guy, and all the other NFC North fans who dislike Minnesota.)
As for the Rams, well, I have nothing but sympathy. 1-15 in 2009, beating only the 2-14 Lions ... and two years later, at 2-11, beating only New Orleans (??) and Cleveland. Left on the schedule? Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco, all with something to play for. ugh. I haven't seen enough of the Rams to know for sure what the problem is, but I suspect some of it is that Bradford just wasn't that good last year, and now that he isn't throwing half again as many passes as the rest of the league (prior to his injury, that is), his counting stats aren't that high. St. Louis needs to rebuild their offensive line to get Bradford more protection and to get Jackson some running room. They need more depth at WR and RB. They probably need more help on the defensive line as well. I know, it sounds like I'm saying that the Rams need help everywhere. Well, they do.

AFC

Lions fans can appreciate this: Houston keeps winning, even with a third-string QB. With Carolina, Indianapolis, and Tennessee at the end of their schedule, it's possible that this will continue. The Panthers' defense is still miserable, so Yates should be able to put up some points against them; obviously the Colts are still a mess, so the Texans should win that Thursday night game; and the Titans have QB health issues of their own, with Jake Locker being forced into action last week. It's interesting that an AFC South team is still making a run at the #1 seed (although whether or not the Texans get it may be out of their hands: with no head-to-head sweep and all having two conferences losses, it'll likely come down to strength of victory), but it's sure not the team people would have predicted at the end of last season.
The Ravens have three weeks to get their offensive problems worked out. Fortunately, they play three teams with mediocre to bad defenses (San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinnati). Baltimore should keep the pressure on Houston and New England, and should hold off Pittsburgh for the North crown, but they'll still make the playoffs even if they slip up. The only way they can miss is to lose out and have Tennessee win out: in that case, the Titans' victory would give Tennessee the final wild-card spot.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have three weeks to practice not being terrible on defense, and like Baltimore, they have opponents who should help with that: Denver, Miami, and bad Buffalo. (Remember when the good Bills were leading the East?) Unlike Baltimore's issues, this isn't a problem that will resolve itself by playoff time. New England will have to score enough points to overcome their inability to stop other offenses. It'll be interesting to see how the playoff situation works out, too. I think any of these three teams would rather play the TEBOWs than each other in the divisional playoffs. (That's assuming the TEBOWs can get past the AFC North runner-up, of course.)
Speaking of TEBOWTEBOWTEBOW, the Broncos are practically assured of a division title now. A loss to New England wouldn't hurt them much, because they can still win the division by winning their last two games (Oakland has 5 conference losses and Denver would have just 4). The season finale at Kansas City, though, could be a must-win game: should Denver be up by just one game, a loss there and an Oakland win would give the Raiders the division based on division record (2 losses to 3). It doesn't really matter, though. Either Baltimore or Pittsburgh will roll whoever the AFC West champion is, and honestly, that needs to happen. I am amazed at the number of people who think that being a bad quarterback on a winning team makes you a good quarterback. (ESPN actually asked who was more "clutch", TEBOW or Tom Brady. If I didn't know better, I'd guess the Denver-New England game was on ESPN, and that this was just the usual self-promotional crap that ESPN does.) I'm also amazed at the number of defensive coordinators who figure that because TEBOW can't hit a receiver in tight coverage, he can't hit one in soft coverage either. P.S. He's a running QB, just so you know. On a two-point conversion, he might just keep the ball. Call it a hunch.
Does it even matter if Pittsburgh wins the North? A number of these guys were on the team that won a road-trip Super Bowl (did you know Jerome Bettis was from Detroit?), so it's not like it's just something that happened in the past, and it might be easier to face Denver in the first round and then Houston in the next, should the Texans finish with the #1 seed, rather than taking on New England, even if it's a home game. The Steelers do have a close win at home over the Patriots, plus a loss to the Schaub Texans and the sweep at the hands of Baltimore, but I think it's better to consider current performance rather than regular-season results. Pittsburgh seems less likely to be affected by an extra game or road games than Baltimore would be.
The Jets have to be happy with Oakland's schedule: New York can't afford to be tied with an AFC West team (they lost to both the Raiders and Broncos), so it's better for them to have the second-place team trailing them, record-wise. The Jets do not have an easy closing schedule (Eagles, Giants, Dolphins), and with the #5 seed out of reach, they have no margin for error ... well, little margin for error. The head-to-head loss to Oakland doesn't come into play in the case of a three- or four-way tie, but the Jets already have five conference losses compared to four for Tennessee, and if the loss that knocks New York into a tie is to Miami, that would cost them against Cincinnati as well. Of course, holding off those teams could simply put the Jets in Foxborough for another loss to the Patriots ...
The Titans, on the other hand, welcome Oakland as part of a tie, because that keeps their loss to Cincinnati out of the tiebreaker picture. They have a relatively easy schedule (Colts, Jaguars, Texans), so their best shot is to win the two games they ought to and then hope to take advantage of Houston's injury problems in the finale. Of course, they already need help to make the playoffs, but with just four conference losses, Tennessee is in better shape than the other middle-of-the-pack teams, so they don't need to worry too much about who's in a tiebreaker. (The odds of it being just the Bengals and Titans are pretty small.)
Cincinnati has three losses by less than a touchdown, plus two 7-point losses, and all of those are to teams in the playoff hunt (although one, San Francisco, is not a direct competitor). Flip any of those games and the Bengals are in the thick of things; as it is, Cincinnati needs wins plus help, and likely a lot of it. St. Louis and Arizona are must-win games, as is the season finale against Baltimore, but even that may not be enough. They would need two losses by the Jets (or just one, if it's their Miami game) plus at least one Oakland loss (the Raiders have a significant edge in strength of victory and would get even a bigger boost from a win over Detroit).
Oakland's win over Chicago may be the last bright spot in their season. The unexpected loss to Miami cut away the last of the Raiders' lead in the West, and the loss to Green Bay dropped them into the tail end of the wild-card race. Oakland can't afford a loss to Detroit, but it'll be no small task to beat the Lions, especially given the struggles that Carson Palmer has shown from time to time this season. Like Cincinnati, Oakland will need help even if they do win out, but for now, their focus has to be on winning their next game.
San Diego has climbed back to the edge of the playoffs, at least at first glance, by beating the struggling Jaguars and Bills. They'll need to win out and get a ton of help, though, and that seems highly unlikely: they play Baltimore next and then close the season at Detroit and at Oakland. It's more likely the Chargers will finish 6-10 and think about which recycled coach would do better than Norv. (With respect to decision-making in games, the answer might be "most of them.")
In retrospect, it was really a combination of a weaker schedule plus good play that made the Bills look like a playoff team. At 5-2, they had just one win over a team that was obviously a playoff contender (New England), and four of their next six losses came against similar teams. Throw in whippings at the hands of Miami and San Diego, and it becomes clear that the Bills weren't really contenders in the first place. Buffalo will finish with double-digit losses for the third straight season, and while the Lions may snap their 11-year postseason drought, the Bills will not.
The firing of Todd Haley was overdue: it's been obvious for quite some time that the Chiefs are a really bad football team. They squeaked out close wins over hapless Minnesota and Indianapolis as well as injury-ravaged Oakland and Chicago, and they stole a win from bumbling San Diego, but the rest of the season has been a better indicator of the depth of talent on this team: a 34-point loss to Buffalo, a 45-point loss to Detroit, a 28-point loss to Miami, a 31-point loss to New England, a 27-point loss to the Jets. Yes, the Chiefs are missing a solid RB in Jamaal Charles, but then Haley rarely used him for more than half a game anyway. Yes, they're missing a good safety in Eric Berry, but strength on defense starts with the line, not the secondary. Kansas City made the playoffs last season with smoke and mirrors; the talent on the team is more like the three seasons before, when the Chiefs were a combined 10-38. Yes, Scott Pioli is to blame for the lack of depth, and I'm going to predict that yet another Belichick disciple will be given the axe for failing to show competence in another city. (Perhaps it was the system as a whole, rather than any of its components? And with that in mind, perhaps Crennel is not the best man for the permanent job in KC.)
On the other hand, the firing of Tony Sparano seemed either too early or too late. Why not fire him after the 0-7 start? Why fire him after the team goes 4-2 in its next six games? Miami also has injury and depth issues (never mind the idea that Reggie Bush is a running back), and of course there is the problem of having two playoff contenders in your division, so a season that might have them near the division title in the West instead has them far back in the East. I wonder sometimes if ownership in Miami really knows what it's doing. Give Sparano credit for doing what he could with the talent he had in front of him, even if he never managed to get the Dolphins to play well enough in the right games to get the results he apparently needed to stick around longer.
Speaking of ownership issues, since being awarded an expansion franchise to replace the departed Browns, Cleveland has posted numbers remarkably similar to Detroit's: two winning seasons (although Detroit is on the verge of a third), one playoff appearance (a loss), nine seasons with 10 or more losses (although Cleveland is on the verge of a tenth). William Clay Ford and his son Bill were excoriated for the Millen debacle, and like them, Al Lerner and his son Randy have taken a lot of heat, deservedly so, for failing to accomplish much of anything. While that may be changing in Detroit, nothing seems to be changing in Cleveland. Another season, another coach, another scheme, another disappointment. Even their wins have been uninspiring: 8 points over Indianapolis, 1 point over Miami, 3 points over Seattle, 4 points over Jacksonville. The defense isn't as good as it looks, and the offense is a train wreck. The passing game is basically Josh Cribbs and sub-replacement-level receivers who can't catch; the running game is three yards and a cloud of dust. (First in the NFL in avoiding stuffs, last in second-level yards, 29th in open-field yards. This is a running game that will tell you that if you need three yards, it'll get you three yards. If you need seven yards, it'll get you three yards.) Cincinnati has a good young quarterback in Andy Dalton, the Ravens and Steelers are again near the top of the AFC, and Cleveland will again have a good position in the draft. It doesn't seem right.
Most of what got Jack Del Rio fired was finding himself in a situation where his quarterbacks were an injured, ineffective veteran, a rookie, and an ineffective journeyman. With no passing game and a weak running game, Jacksonville has no offense and thus no way to catch up when they fall behind. The defense has done a stellar job: despite finding themselves in difficult positions time and time again (the Jaguars gave opponents the fourth-best starting field position in the league), they give up few points (9th in points per drive) and force a ton of punts (2nd). More than half of opponents' drives end up in punts (only Pittsburgh has done better), but that's true of Jacksonville's offense as well (only St. Louis has done worse). The Jaguars need a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball: they have Maurice Jones-Drew and ... um ... anyway, they need a ton of talent. With the right players, they might have a shot at .500, but they have to start by replacing players on offense. You cannot expect your defense to hold opponents under 10 points a game to get a win.
The Colts have actually been pretty decent at running the ball this year, which is odd because that's usually something they do quite poorly. Everything else has been a disaster. Drafting Andrew Luck would be a waste: it would be better to flip the pick for a number of lower picks so that they can start plugging some of the holes (and so Peyton doesn't get killed if he is able to return in 2012), so that when they do get someone to replace Manning, he actually has a chance to survive. The graveyard of NFL QBs is full of young players with promise who went to bad teams and were buried in a grave of mediocrity. (The difference between the NFL and college football is like the difference between online and offline Madden play. Offline, pretty much anyone with skills can have a good season, even with a bad team, but it's something completely different when you're in a league with people who are, for the most part, at least as talented as you are. Even if you have a good team, you might end up with a losing record, and if your team sucks, you'll be lucky to win four games.)

The game to watch this week is Detroit at Oakland. A Lions win keeps them securely in the hunt and pushes Oakland to the edge of elimination; a Raiders win gives Dallas hope of making up ground in the NFC, and if coupled with a New England win over Denver would make the AFC West race interesting again.

Lions season outlook, week 14

2011-12-06T16:04:00.001-05:00

So that was the last of the bonus games, the ones the Lions probably weren't going to win. The rest are games they probably need to win, possibly including the season finale (the one where Green Bay will have clinched everything and should be resting their starters). With Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, and the Giants losing, Detroit could have been in a really nice position with a win, but whatever.

Massey projections:
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, favorite (moved down)
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

The San Diego game flips and the Green Bay game is about to move to overwhelming. Still, Detroit is favored in three of its four remaining games. Expected wins are down to 9.24, once again dropping after a loss. (Those "partial" wins – the games in which the Lions are not favored – have a more noticeable impact later in the season.)

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.2, down 0.5
Playoffs: 58.2%, up 5.8 points
NFC title: 2.3%, up 0.3 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, up 0.3 points

Again, the mean wins drop due to Detroit not winning a game they had a reasonable chance of winning. The division title is effectively out of reach, but the playoff chances spike because of Chicago's unexpected loss to Kansas City.

Next, playoff odds reflecting the loss of key QBs:

Mean wins: 9.2, same
Playoffs: 66.0%, 7.8 points higher
NFC title: 2.5%, 0.2 points higher
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, same

The playoff odds jump is a reflection of Hanie's struggles. Kansas City was crushed by Detroit; the Bears should have done the same.

The Lions did dig themselves a big first-half hole and did not climb out of it; I got basically everything right about that game. Unfortunately for Detroit, injuries on defense continue to pile up. Suh will be suspended for this game as well, and if neither Delmas nor Houston can play, the Lions will have backups in too many positions to be able to pressure Ponder as they'd like to, especially if Fairley misses any time. (He probably wasn't 100% in the first place.) Still, with Peterson either out or just returning after a high ankle sprain, an injury that really affects RBs, Minnesota won't be quite the same team they were early in the season. Ponder's much better than McNabb was, but he's still inexperienced, and the Lions will be looking to take advantage of his mistakes. The beleaguered Vikings defense won't have a home crowd to support them: look for Jared Allen to cry about officiating as Stafford carves up their secondary. Lions, 37-21.

Last week: predicted 20-31, actual 17-31

Current mood: expecting something decent

Pain in the butt phone

2011-12-01T08:27:00.001-05:00

So even though my HTC Incredible doesn't have the HTC-branded keylogger that was deliberately planted on so many Android phones, it didn't have Gingerbread: I had the same issues a lot of other people did, mostly because of HTC's buggy update installation process (which is related to the whole "low on disk space" error when you're not low on disk space). I had the update downloaded, but the phone wouldn't reboot to install it, and it wouldn't say why.

Fortunately, I found instructions that helped me install the update on my own. It was mildly alarming, though, to see that my phone rejected a date change even when I turned off automatic date and time updates (I had to set it ahead one month because one year wouldn't "take") ... seems like more of that can't-opt-out behavior that's the whole problem with the Carrier IQ keylogger. (FWIW, I think that company should be fined a certain amount for every phone from which it collects this data; do the same thing to the company installing the software and this won't happen again.)

Lions season outlook, week 13

2011-11-29T10:38:00.001-05:00

The one Sunday each year where I'm guaranteed not to have to worry about the Lions playing. Of course, it turns out to be a Sunday where the only game I picked wrong was my 1-point game. (I also picked Detroit to beat Green Bay because why not? I still won this week. Back off.) Detroit had its chances, but once again, they made too many mistakes against a better team. A win would have been huge, but instead, they're faced with the prospect of falling a game behind Chicago and Atlanta with both teams having tiebreaker advantages against them.

Massey projections:
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite (moved down)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

Trending down because of the loss and other teams' performances. Minnesota and Green Bay are both in the 85-86 range (in opposite directions, of course). San Diego is on the verge of being an overwhelming underdog. Expected wins are down to 9.64, and that will probably fall again if the Saints win Sunday night, as is expected given their dominant performance Monday night against the Giants.

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.7, down 0.6
Playoffs: 52.4%, down 14.6 points
Division title: 0.1%, down 5.0 points
NFC title: 2.0%, down 1.7 pointsSuper Bowl win: 0.7%, down 0.9 points

The mean wins drop due to Detroit not winning a game they had a roughly 50-50 chance of winning; the division and top-seed odds plummet because the loss locks Detroit out of first, barring some forfeits; the rest simply reflects a Detroit loss. They can't afford many more of those.

Again, playoff odds reflecting the loss of key QBs:

Mean wins: 9.6, 0.1 lower
Playoffs: 55.1%, 2.7 points higher
Division title: 0.1%, same
NFC title: 1.9%, 0.1 points lower
Super Bowl win: 0.9%, 0.2 points higher

Similar to last week, with the playoff odds higher because of Cutler and the Super Bowl odds higher because of Schaub and now Leinart. Not sure why the mean wins are lower.

I thought it would be a shootout, but the defenses stood tall, especially Green Bay's. If that isn't the case Sunday night, this could get ugly. The one blowout loss this year came in a game when 21 points were scored without the defense on the field; the Lions have yet to be rolled by an offense. Of course, they haven't faced a strong offense on the road since the Dallas game, and in that game, they were terrible in the first half. I don't think New Orleans will help them out in the second. Saints, 31-20.

Last week: predicted 24-39, actual 15-27

Current mood: expecting the worst

NFL week 12: separation?

2011-11-28T08:23:00.001-05:00

Green Bay becomes all but uncatchable in the NFC, but the only changes in the AFC seem to come near the bottom.

The Lions needed to play mistake-free football to beat Green Bay. Stafford threw three interceptions, leading directly to 17 points, and the Lions committed 11 penalties. The defense did all it was asked to do, but once again, the offense put them in a hole they couldn't escape. Detroit has played four home games against teams currently in the playoffs, and they've lost three of them, each time because the offense couldn't run effectively. I think that's an indication that Detroit isn't really a playoff contender. They might get lucky and slip into the playoffs if Chicago continues to struggle or if Atlanta falters, but they won't get far. The other problem they have, well, you already know about that. At some point, you either stop committing personal fouls, or you simply are a dirty player. Apologies at this point are meaningless: Suh just needs to stop doing dumb things on the field. The Lions are deep at defensive tackle, but not so deep that they can afford to have an All-Pro-caliber DT missing games because he lost his temper.
Give the Packers' defense credit: they made the plays they needed to. Detroit was 5 of 10 on third down, but the three interceptions were enough to give Rodgers the advantage he needed to counter Detroit's defense (the Packers were just 2 of 10 on third down). Detroit scored touchdowns on both of their red zone drives, but the second drive was a last-minute drive that really had no impact on the game. They aren't very good, but on Thursday, they were good enough, and that may be all the Packers need until playoff time. Then again, it isn't like there are any balanced teams in the NFC, so maybe Green Bay won't have to get a solid game from the defense until the Super Bowl, should they get there. (It's much easier to find flaws in the other contenders.)
Miami suddenly looks much less like an Indianapolis-caliber team and much more like a team that just had bad breaks to start the season, but they still have some issues. The decision to pick up Bush in the offseason doesn't look too bad until you look at his productivity at RB, and it's just as disappointing as it was in New Orleans. The difference is that the Saints had a passing game that didn't need nearly as much support; Moore is definitely playing better now than he did at first (which is what you'd expect from a backup), but aside from Marshall, the only other threat in the passing game is Bush, and he isn't nearly as effective if he's coming out of the backfield. Bush is like a weaker, less elusive version of Barry Sanders. He has a similar boom-or-bust mentality, but has much less ability to avoid contact, and thus there are many more carries for little or no yards.
Once again, Dallas' defense came to the rescue, holding the Dolphins to field goal attempts on four drives inside the 10. (Graham's longest kick of the four was 28 yards.) It almost wasn't enough: the running game was OK (even though DeMarco Murray got all of the RB carries), and the passing game struggled. Miami's defense is good, but like the Lions, the Cowboys have difficulty against teams with good defenses. That may not be a problem in the surprisingly weak East, but pretty much all the wild-card contenders in the NFC have good defenses, and Detroit has already shown what they can do in Dallas; it isn't a stretch to see Chicago or Atlanta playing even better than that. Romo is not playing his best every week, but the absence of Miles Austin is definitely a factor, and not having Felix Jones at 100% is a problem as well.
San Francisco's lack of offense was finally exposed against Baltimore: unable to run the ball and unable to force turnovers to create short fields, the 49ers had to try the passing game, and of course it didn't go very well. Despite what commentators like to think, I believe Roman has designed an offense to hide Alex Smith's shortcomings, not to work on his weaknesses (it's probably too late for that), so there will be a risk of this happening against any solid defense. The game was close mostly because Baltimore is a similar team (strong on defense, vulnerable on offense), and that's probably a good sign for San Francisco because the teams they're likely to meet before the NFC championship game are similar, so they'll be on equal footing.
Big non-conference win for Baltimore, especially with Pittsburgh still having to visit the 49ers. The Ravens have no real challenges left until Week 17 against Cincinnati, so even if Pittsburgh beats San Francisco, the Ravens should have a relatively easy path to the division title. All three 8-3 division leaders have just two conference losses, so it'll be important for the Ravens to win out and wait to see what happens in Houston. With the Texans down to their third-string QB (where is that Orton guy when you need him?), it may be just a matter of time before Baltimore moves up into a first-round-bye position.
Is there anyone still doubting that Christian Ponder should be the starting QB in Minnesota? The Vikings didn't have much of a chance with Adrian Peterson out, but Ponder still turned in a decent performance against a good team on the road: 68% completions, no turnovers, 7.4 Y/A ... he probably took too many sacks, but then Minnesota's offensive line isn't the best either. The Vikings need to be thinking about the future, starting now, and that includes the guy who missed Sunday's game. Chris Johnson should be a lesson to teams: don't invest a ton of money in a guy who simply can't make enough of a difference for your team. There are too many RBs out there. Peterson has done a great job in Minnesota, but he wasn't the main reason they made it to the NFC Championship two years ago, and he's obviously not keeping them out of the basement now. Minnesota is 5 games behind the Bears and Lions, with games remaining against each team as well as New Orleans and Denver. It's not out of the question for this team to finish 2-14.
Matt Ryan had an impressive game against Minnesota, moving the Falcons into 6th in the conference ahead of Detroit. However, this should be an expectation against a weak team; Atlanta got a needed win, but they shouldn't have been struggling at home against a team missing their star RB and starting a rookie QB (even though he's playing better than the veteran). This was a 17-14 game relatively late in the fourth quarter. The Falcons caught a break with Houston's injury problems at QB, so they may escape with a big road win next week, and that would be huge. Detroit and the Giants have challenging schedules, so a win over the Texans combined with wins over the weaker teams on their schedule might give the Falcons a wild-card spot; a win at New Orleans might even give them the division.
Cleveland's offense struggled again against Cincinnati; McCoy was unimpressive (4.1 NY/A), the running game was kept in check, and while they did convert some third downs, they didn't get enough points to survive Cincinnati's comeback. The Browns deserve credit for staying with Cincinnati on the road, but credit only goes so far, and at some point Cleveland will be expected to do more than just compete. (Browns fans are pointing out that that point arrived about six years ago.)
With Buffalo's loss, the Bengals have a little more breathing room, but Denver opponents' insistence on ignoring deep receivers have basically put them in the Bills' place in the hunt, meaning that this was a game Cincinnati couldn't afford to lose. The offense put up decent numbers, but they're not as good as they seem: Benson had 106 yards rushing, but 33 of those were on one play. 20 carries for 73 yards isn't nearly as impressive. Dalton was 21 of 31 for 270 yards, but 51 of those were on a pass to A.J. Green; again, 30 passes for 219 yards isn't quite as good. The AFC does have some good offense/weak defense teams like the NFC does, but Cincinnati's two division opponents have strong defenses, and the Bengals will have to get more productivity against teams like Cleveland if they're going to beat Pittsburgh or Baltimore, which may be necessary for them to make the playoffs.
The Bucs have had, by far, the most difficult schedule in the league. Their opponents' winning percentage is nearly .600 (.597); all seven of their losses have come to teams with winning records, and five of those seven are currently in the playoffs (Detroit and Tennessee are the others). It's notable that the two closer losses are to the two latter teams; they had a close loss to Chicago, but the other losses were not close. Tampa Bay simply isn't a playoff-caliber team, much like Detroit isn't quite at that level. The Tennessee game highlighted their offensive struggles: five fumbles (four lost), one interception, 2 of 10 on third downs, only one red zone drive, only one touchdown. This season is making 2010 look like an outlier for Josh Freeman, and if he struggles like this next year, Raheem Morris will have to start looking for another QB.
Chris Johnson finally had a day worthy of his contract, and it came against a team that's known for having good defenses. Unfortunately, the Bucs' defense this season isn't anywhere near as good as it has been, so it's hard to see this game as anything more than the Titans taking advantage of a young, weak team. What's a bit more troubling is that Hasselbeck had a bad day against a bad defense: 4.7 Y/A (gross, not net), just a bit over 50% completions, 1 TD and two picks. The Titans also fumbled three times (recovering one), giving Tampa Bay far more opportunities than they should have. Tennessee can't afford to have games like this, even against the softer parts of their remaining schedule. Jacksonville has a much better defense than Tampa Bay, and even Indianapolis has played a couple of solid games this year. New Orleans will roll over the Titans if they play like they did Sunday, and Houston might do the same on New Year's; if the division isn't out of reach by then, it probably will be, and the Titans can ill afford to be in a position where that becomes a must-win game for them. They're not just showing the ability to play well enough on both sides of the ball to beat a good team.
Carolina was able to move the ball steadily against the Colts' horrid defense, which isn't much of a surprise. The fact that they got only 27 points is a surprise. Carolina's offense has actually been good this season, something that's been lost due to their defense being, well, worse than Indy's. (Their run defense is terrifyingly bad: there's a gap of 3.4 points between Cleveland at 30 and St. Louis at 31. There's a gap of 8.4 points between the Rams and Panthers.) It's been consistently bad, too, not just occasionally bad, so week in and week out, the Panthers struggle to keep up with their opponents, usually failing in the process. (Carolina's 9th in the NFC in scoring but dead last in points allowed.) So give them credit for winning on the road, even if it was against a hapless team. Last year, you see, that hapless team was Carolina. They have, as they say, been there and done that.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts faced a terrible defense and ... ugh. Painter: 15 of 29, 2 picks, 1 fumble (not lost). Third downs: 1 of 9. They ran the ball OK, which is not good against the sieve that is the Panthers' run defense. There are no more winnable games on the Colts' schedule. Unless a team completely blows a game, this will be the second 0-16 team in NFL history, and like the Lions, it will be a team in desperate need of an overhaul. The Lions hired Martin Mayhew permanently (he was the interim GM), who then hired Jim Schwartz, and Detroit is now sitting at 7-4 and on the edge of the playoffs. The vast majority of that roster was replaced. It is not a stretch to suggest that the same thing needs to happen in Indianapolis. There are 6 players on Detroit's roster who were drafted during the Dark Times. (Jason Hanson predates them ... by a lot. In 2001, he was entering his 10th season in Detroit.) Interestingly, the Colts have 2 players from the Dark Times, Ernie Sims and Dan Orlovsky. (Picking up Lions retreads is usually a bad sign.) Are there 6 players on the Colts' roster that are unarguably part of the rebuilding process? Reggie Wayne is in his 11th season, as is Ryan Diem. Jeff Saturday is in his 13th season. Freeney and Mathis, 10th and 9th, respectively. Sure, you want to keep a few of the veterans, even if only because you can't replace 53 players in one season, but how many of these guys are going to be worthwhile players in three years? (And that's leaving aside the biggest question of all: what happens with #18? Who is, by the way, in his 14th season.)
Didn't I just mention St. Louis' defensive issues? Why, yes I did. Beanie Wells is not the next Walter Payton. He is, more than likely, the next Jerome Harrison: a guy who took advantage of a situation to put up monster numbers that he'll never again approach. Keep in mind that he had runs of 71 and 53 yards; those accounted for more than half his total. 25 carries for 104 yards doesn't sound nearly as impressive, does it? (Almost like a Barry Sanders day: the day where he ripped off two 80-plus-yard TD runs, he had just 215 yards total.) And after all that, Arizona still needed a late field goal to hold off the Rams (and spoil my pick 'em week: I missed only this game and the Lions game). Consider this: Patrick Peterson has four punt return TDs this year. In those games, the Cardinals won by 7, lost by 3, won by 6, and won by 3. You can't simply say "if he hadn't scored, they would have lost" because you're assuming nothing else would change significantly, but I think it's reasonable to suggest that a win in each of those three games would have been less likely without his TD, and the loss (to Baltimore) would have been bigger. So it wasn't all Beanie this time. After all, on seven occasions, a player has rushed for 200 or more yards in a losing effort. (O.J. did it twice, and both times, they were double-figure losses.)
The Rams are last in the NFC again, thanks to their win over Baltimore. (Minnesota has a better conference record and thus is 15th.) Last year's 7-9 record is a distant memory, and the notion that Sam Bradford is definitely an up-and-coming QB is also a distant memory. Without counting stats in his favor, his conventional numbers are less gaudy, and so people are more likely to listen when you bring up things like 4.6 ANY/A and -19.0% DVOA. To be fair, those stats really reflect "the St. Louis passing game when Sam Bradford is QB", and so they are not all his fault, but then I don't know anyone who looks at more than counting stats and says that Bradford is a good QB at this point in his career. More than likely, he's just another OK kid (no pun intended) who was thrust into a difficult situation and couldn't make it work. The Rams would be a bad team this year no matter who was at QB; it just doesn't help that the guy they have isn't doing much of anything well. The one thing he is doing well, something that should actually be a concern for Rams fans, is avoiding interceptions. He's third among NFL QBs in interception percentage, behind only Aaron Rodgers and that one guy in Minnesota who's now a backup. (No, really. McNabb struggled at everything else, but he wasn't throwing picks.) You can make the argument that last season's 2.5% is proof that Bradford just doesn't throw picks, but I think it's more that he's had good luck his first two seasons. I'll have to check FO's dropped interceptions charts to see if that's played a factor, but for some perspective, the NFL career leader in INT% is Rodgers, at 1.8%. McNabb is actually tied with Bradford (and some guy named Brady) at 2.2%, third behind Neil O'Donnell. Is he really that good at avoiding interceptions? I guess he could be, but give me another season or two like that before you convince me. Rodgers has done it for 4 seasons, and the other guys have more than that under their belts.
Buffalo's run is over, and with Fred Jackson out and AFC playoff contenders disappearing in the distance, that red-hot start won't culminate in a playoff appearance. (FO mentioned that "there's a pretty good chance that teams like Buffalo, Tennessee, and Detroit are going to be good all year" after Week 4. Of course, the model didn't know that Detroit and Tennessee had faced relatively weak schedules and that Buffalo would collapse mid-season.) Fitzpatrick had a pretty good game against a strong Jets defense, but the Bills couldn't manage anything on the ground (C.J. Spiller is not the same kind of back Jackson is), and it's much harder to kill the clock when you can't run the ball. A win would have made the Bills the 6-5 team hoping for other teams to slip in December; the loss means Buffalo can start thinking about 2012.
Mark Sanchez is just not a good QB. The "ability" to throw touchdown passes late in games is nice if you seem to have it, but it doesn't make up for the inability to throw good passes during the first three quarters so you don't have to come from behind all the time. Hopefully Rex Ryan has dropped that silly Super Bowl talk; this team isn't nearly good enough to win one. There will be no AFC Championship appearance this season. The Jets will be lucky to make the playoffs, but they won't get far. There are too many solid defenses that will simply shut down New York's anemic offense, and the one team that has a defense the Jets might break, New England, will simply outscore them.
Matt Leinart actually looked like a decent NFL quarterback for a half. He used short passes to inch the Texans down the field and build a small lead (that would have been bigger if Arian Foster hadn't lost a fumble that became a Jaguars TD). Then he got hurt, and whatever semblance of a passing game Houston had ... actually didn't seem to change that much. Yates' completion percentage was lower than Leinart's, but his Y/A was about the same. The difference was field position: with Leinart in the game, the Texans started two drives in Jacksonville territory and another at the 45, and those gave Houston 13 points. In the second half, they had exactly one drive start in Jacksonville territory, and it was a three-and-out. Houston might be another team to consider some kind of option play; of course it takes much more than a week to learn the read option or triple option or inverted veer or whatever, but if the alternative is what we saw Sunday, well, I'd go with the option.
So ... Blaine Gabbert != NFL QB. Not yet, anyway. Perhaps more specifically, not a QB in Jacksonville. I never associated them with a spread offense in the first place, so coming from that at Missouri means he's got to learn an entire new scheme, take snaps under center instead of in the gun, all that ... just a bad combination. In retrospect, releasing David Garrard wasn't such a big deal (because he's injured and couldn't have played anyway), but it does say something that the Jaguars ended up with zero competent QBs. How strange is it that three of the four AFC South teams ended up going to their third-string QBs? (The Colts haven't made a permanent change to Orlovsky, but he did see some playing time.) As I was writing this, Jack Del Rio was fired. I think it's the right move, but of course it's far too early to guess what will happen next in Jacksonville. I don't know that it makes sense to talk about who the best fit would be, because we don't know how much control they'll have over personnel decisions and thus how compatible the existing talent will be with the new schemes.
The Bears' defense held Oakland to a field goal or less on all but one drive, but that one drive was enough to put the game out of reach. All those people who were hoping that Hanie would replace Cutler? Yeah, they're kind of quiet now, aren't they? Cutler is not the problem. The scheme was most of the problem; the offensive line and lack of quality receivers makes up the rest of it. When Martz finally realized that the Bears didn't have the personnel to run his run-and-shoot-style offense, he relented and switched to quicker passes and better protection, using Tyler Clutts much more often, and the Bears suddenly had a productive offense. With Cutler out, they're obviously going to suffer until Hanie gets used to NFL-caliber defenses. Fortunately for him, Seattle is the only top-16 pass defense the Bears will face until the playoffs. Again, the goal should be for Hanie to be a caretaker, not to be the focal point of the offense: Chicago's defense should be good enough to make up the difference. They were on Sunday, but Hanie's mistakes cost them.
The Raiders were lucky. If Cutler had been healthy, Oakland's inability to score touchdowns would have dropped them into a tie with the Broncos. Instead, they get another big win and remain just a game out of the top spot in the AFC. Carson Palmer seems to be comfortable in the Raiders' offense, with 8.1 Y/A against a solid defense. Oakland's defense forced enough turnovers to help out; with Green Bay and Detroit still on the schedule, they may have to step up two more times. Miami could actually be more of a challenge now that Moore is playing like a decent QB, but Kansas City and San Diego should be wins, and if Tebow continues to struggle against decent defenses, the Raiders probably won't have to beat either NFC North team to win their division.
No, I don't know how Rex Grossman managed to help Washington pull out a win at Seattle. OK, it had something to do with the opposing QB (could Grossman and Tarvaris Jackson be the least impressive QB matchup in recent times?), but still, that doesn't win games for you unless the other guy is throwing interceptions for touchdowns. 314 yards, 2 TDs, three fourth-quarter scoring drives ... obviously the defense had something to do with it (last four Seattle drives: three-and-out, three-and-out, four-and-out, interception), but Seattle only gave Washington the ball in Seahawks territory on one of the three drives (the interception ended the game), so it wasn't like Washington could settle for field goals. They still need a competent QB if they're going to have a shot at competing for the division next year, but for now, if Grossman can have games like this, it'll be enough to make them competitive, and that's enough to keep them even with Philadelphia for now. (Random thought: imagine getting odds from someone that going into December, Rex Grossman and Washington would have the same record as Philadelphia.)
The rah-rah stuff is wearing off in Seattle, and we're beginning to see the same stuff that Pete Carroll did in New England: not much of anything. I think he's a poor judge of talent; he doesn't have to be good at USC because a lot of top athletes want to go there, so all you need is to sign enough recruits who become good that you can beat UCLA and Stanford and sometimes Oregon. In the NFL, it's much more difficult to build a roster, so you can't afford to make as many mistakes. Jackson isn't good enough to be a starter. Zach Miller is basically a non-factor. Marshawn Lynch is better than Reggie Bush and maybe a few other guys, but that's it. Steven Hauschka is doing a good job kicking, but if that's the high point of your offense, you're doing it wrong. (Surprisingly, the passing game isn't worse with Jackson than it was with Hasselbeck last season. It isn't so much that the decision to let Hasselbeck go was bad as it is that he's been a great fit in Tennessee, which is even harder to explain given that Chris Johnson is having a terrible season.)
Remember when New England looked like they might struggle to make the playoffs? Me either. With the Texans down to a third-string QB and the Ravens' offense looking at times like it has a third-string QB at the helm, it's hard to imagine anything preventing the Patriots from securing the #1 seed in the playoffs, and from there, the only question is whether or not they'll face a defense capable of disrupting their offense. Baltimore, New York and Houston all have defenses capable of the job, but none have offenses who could take advantage of New England's weak secondary. You don't have to be the best team in the conference to get to the Super Bowl, you just have to beat the teams in your way, and the Patriots look more than capable of doing that. Philadelphia's pass defense isn't that bad, despite what people believe (the run defense, however, is another story), but Brady had these numbers: 10.4 NY/A, 3 TDs, 0 interceptions, 1 sack.
Is it Andy Reid's fault? For thinking that an offensive line coach can run a defense, yes. For not using the running game more, yes. For not building an offense that can score in short-yardage situations, yes. Is there a coach out there who could do more than he is? Well, take a look at some of the new coaches in the league. (Compared to Reid, that would be all of them, of course. That sounds crazy, but did you know that after him and Belichick, the next two coaches in terms of tenure are Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio, at least prior to this week? I know.) Can you be sure you'd get, say, a John Harbaugh and not a Todd Haley? No. Has Reid lost the players? Well, he's lost DeSean Jackson, but then sometimes you're going to get players who don't care about the team in the first place. It's better to get rid of the players than to get rid of the coach. Besides, the next coach is going to inherit a really young roster, because you can only keep expensive free agents together for a certain amount of time. Wait ... that's an argument to get rid of Reid. (Better to let the new coach get the kinds of players he wants than to try to build a team from what the last one left.)
By now, it should be obvious what Denver's going to do. They're going to run the ball, and run it some more, and some more, and then run the ball, and occasionally Tebow will chuck the ball 50 yards downfield. That's all they have. Detroit took that feeble offense, fed it into a wood chipper, and tossed the pieces into an incinerator. Everyone else has looked at it as if they'd never watched college football in the '70s. San Diego's defense, like others Tebow has faced, is bad, so it's kind of understandable that they weren't able to stop him. That doesn't mean Tebow had a good game, although he does deserve credit for one thing: turnovers, or rather the lack thereof. He just doesn't turn the ball over. He has a single interception, against Detroit. (Unfortunately, it was an end-zone interception that was returned for a touchdown.) He's fumbled just five times in six games. (One of those was returned for a touchdown by Detroit as well.) He's going to make you stop Denver on third down, and if you can't do that, they're going to take time off the clock and put up 3s and occasionally 7s on the board. Against weaker teams and the Jets, it's worked. It will not work against Chicago and New England.
San Diego is 13th in the AFC. Behind them are Jacksonville, who lost their starting QB and are relying on a rookie and a journeyman; Miami, who lost their starting QB and are relying on a journeyman; and Indianapolis, who lost their starting QB and are relying on an untested backup. Unlike the Florida teams, San Diego has their starting QB, and also unlike them, the Chargers' defense is terrible. Philip Rivers isn't having a bad year, just an OK year, but even Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers would be hard pressed to undo the damage San Diego has done defensively. 15.4% DVOA, 29th in the league. 7.2 NY/A, tied for 27th with New England. 30th according to Brian Burke. 26th in points allowed. When Norv Turner is shown the door, that defense will be one of the reasons why. Turner never really made the most of the talent he had in San Diego, but that was all right as long as they were at least making the playoffs. That will not happen this season.
Man, Pittsburgh's offense sucks this season. Wait, it doesn't? What? That's the funny thing: it doesn't. It just looked terrible against Kansas City, which is really hard to understand given that teams like Buffalo and Detroit set the Chiefs' defense on fire. In fact, just like the Steelers struggled the entire game against Indianapolis, they struggled against Kansas City. If they continue to have difficulty against bad teams, then December will be a tough month for them: of course the 49ers game will be an exception, but they play Cleveland twice (well, once on January 1, but that's basically football December) and St. Louis once, and a loss in any of those games would probably put the division out of reach. Pittsburgh is two games clear of seventh-place Denver, so they've got quite a cushion right now, but there are only so many times you can win three straight road playoff games, and I don't think this team is good enough to do that.
Hey, New Orleans! Styx welcomes you to the Paradise Theater! Ah, one of the few albums both my dad and I liked ... and not so different than the performances that Drew Brees is putting up this year. Saints fans might feel like they're at a concert, looking at the fireworks in the Superdome. 363 yards, 9.6 Y/A, 4 TDs, no picks. The Saints posted 577 yards in total offense against the Giants, the most they'd allowed since 1948 (in a 63-35 loss to the Chicago Cardinals; Chicago QBs were 15 of 20 for 280 yards and 5 TDs in that game, which probably equates to something off the charts these days). New Orleans is now just a game behind San Francisco for second place in the NFC, and with Pittsburgh on the 49ers' schedule, it's not impossible that New Orleans, who looked at one point like they might stumble in the South, could end up resting in January while the 49ers try to pick apart Detroit or Chicago or Atlanta. Sunday's game against the Lions will be big for both teams.
The Giants aren't out of the playoffs by any means. They're just a game behind Dallas with two games to play against the Cowboys, and just a game behind Chicago, Atlanta, and Detroit for a wild-card spot, with no head-to-head losses against any of those teams. On the other hand, during the most challenging stretch on their schedule, they've won just a single game, against New England, and sandwiched between losses to the #2 and #3 teams in the NFC is a loss to a struggling Philadelphia team that likely won't even break .500. The Cowboys are playing better, which gives New York four tough games of the five they have remaining. A loss to Green Bay would be entirely understandable, but losing the following week to Dallas would all but eliminate them in the East, and at 6-7, they'd probably only have a shot at the second wild-card spot, and even then only if two of the three teams above them falter. The Giants are learning something that the 2007 Lions could have told them: strength of schedule can make you look a lot better or a lot worse than you really are. That Lions team looked like playoff contenders the first half of the season; in the second half, they looked more like the 0-16 team they'd be in 2008. The Giants aren't nearly that bad, but they could finish 1-7 like Detroit did that year.

Believe it or not, the contenders are pulling away in both conferences. There are probably 8 teams in the mix in the NFC and 9 in the AFC, and in a couple of weeks, those numbers will probably shrink. Green Bay can start preparing for the divisional playoffs now, but no one else is close to locking up anything ... San Francisco has the division in hand, but could finish as the #2 or #3, depending on what the Saints do, and obviously it's in the best interest to avoid that #3 spot. The top seed in the AFC is starting T.J. Yates at QB. (At least for now.) Anyone who can tell you how the AFC is going to shake out is just silly. It seems likely that New England will be in their usual position, but who knows? Houston keeps winning even though three of their best players have missed or will miss significant time this season.

Lions season outlook, week 12

2011-11-23T08:56:00.001-05:00

Back to the early-season script: first-half mistakes, second-half domination. What's troubling is that this was one of the worst defenses in football, and Detroit gave them opportunities over and over again. (I didn't see the game, so I don't know how much was Carolina playing well defensively and how much was Detroit making silly mistakes.)

Massey projections:
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

No significant changes, and that will probably be the case the rest of the way. Weeks 12 and 13 move to the other side of the line (41% and 87%, both a tick or two away from reverting.) Estimated wins are 10.3, down just a touch. Again, Weeks 14-16 will be the keys; a win over New Orleans would be huge, and of course an upset of Green Bay on Thanksgiving, well ...

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.3, up 0.5
Playoffs: 67.0%, up 4.7 points
Division title: 5.1%, up 1.4 points
Top seed: 0.8%, up 0.2 points
NFC title: 3.7%, up 0.9 points
Super Bowl win: 1.6%, up 0.6 points

The Lions benefit somewhat from the Giants' loss to Philadelphia. New York's remaining schedule will likely drop them out of playoff contention, which is better than having Dallas stick around in the wild-card race (even though Detroit has the head-to-head win, that only applies if they finish with the same record.

The injury to Cutler may be significant, though. Let's take a look at the Playoff Odds with an estimate of the loss of Cutler (as well as Schaub and Cassel in the AFC):

Mean wins: 10.3, same
Playoffs: 69.8%, 2.8 points higher
Division title: 4.9%, 0.2 points lower
Top seed: 0.8%, same
NFC title: 3.6%, 0.1 points lower
Super Bowl win: 1.7%, 0.1 points higher

The higher playoff chances are from Chicago's chances dropping a bit; the smaller shot at the division is because Chicago still has a game left against Green Bay, and that hypothetical scenario requires the Packers to lose at least one more game (assuming Detroit sweeps them; obviously at least a split would be required). The Super Bowl chances are probably due to the prospect of facing Houston without Schaub.

So I got the offensive part right, but didn't count on the defense being put in untenable positions time and again against a solid offense. This time, it'll be much the same, except the defense will be better and the offense will be much better. It's a strange situation. On the one hand, no one expects the Lions to win. On the other hand, to be the best, eventually you have to beat the best. Detroit obviously isn't the best team in the league this season and probably isn't close, but a win Thursday would certainly be a big step back toward respectability. I just don't see it happening if Rodgers stays healthy. Packers, 34-29.

Last week: predicted 37-17, actual 49-35

Current mood: expecting the worst

boo wiper blades

2011-11-21T20:35:00.001-05:00

I spent about 45 minutes changing my wiper blades today: 40 minutes determining exactly how much Honda's setup sucks and 5 minutes doing the job right once I found good instructions.

I have a 2007 Civic Hybrid, which is awesome because a) it gets great mileage (so not sarcastic) and b) it falls right in between the '06 and '08, which means you can't just go to any old store and be sure to get the right blades, because that chassis isn't in the book (thus sarcasm).

I finally gave up and went to AutoZone, and the guy there set me up with what I figured I'd need: two Rain-X blades, a 26" for the driver's side and a 22" for the passenger's side. (Expensive? Probably, but I change my blades about once every five years, and we get a lot of rain and snow here.)

After wasting time on the Honda owner's manual (pull at the tabs? ha ha), I found this link to a forum post that had pictures. It's for an Si sedan, but it works the same on the Civic Hybrid: use a screwdriver to pop the cap off and then remove the blades like you normally would. The caps don't go back on with third-party blades, but who cares? They seem to work fine, and with 2 inches of rain set for tomorrow, I just need a clean windshield.

NFL week 11: Now we know ... what, exactly?

2011-11-21T08:09:00.001-05:00

Posted with lightning speed to make up for last week. If the Patriots blow it, then yes, I have awesome reverse jinx powers, and yes, I am available for hire.

So after all that, we know ... um ... well, Green Bay has a really good offense, San Francisco has a really weak schedule, and that's about it. (Actually, Green Bay's schedule has been significantly weaker than the 49ers'. Of course, with Detroit twice and the Giants, Bears, and Raiders once each, that'll change a bit.) Playoff contenders who can win a couple of games over the next 2-3 weeks may find themselves resting in Week 17 while the pack of teams below them scrabbles frantically for a postseason spot.

The Jets aren't really that far out of the playoffs. They're ninth right now, trailing Denver and Tennessee on conference record, and just a game behind sixth-place Cincinnati. So that doesn't look bad. But the sweep by the Patriots means that the division is all but out of reach, and the loss to Denver not only throws them back into the pack, but gives them a direct competitor with a head-to-head win. With Buffalo, Washington, and Kansas City up next, Rex Ryan's team could certainly be 8-5 in three weeks, but then Buffalo was probably counting wins the same way until recently, Washington nearly beat Dallas, and Kansas City ... OK, that one's a New York win.
Mel Kiper had an interesting take (subscription required) on the Tebowne. (Of course that's what it'll be called. Don't be silly.) Basically, his point is that it's all very well to run an offense that ignores the forward pass as much as possible, but like pretty much every other gimmick, the read-option offense John Fox is running will be picked apart by a league that tapes every single play to be examined in detail. Once that happens, what are they going to do? Tebow's accuracy, as mentioned here every week, is far below that of an average NFL quarterback, and that's in the Tebowne. What would it be in a conventional offense? Also, what happens if he gets hurt? Do you think Brady Quinn can run this offense? Ha ha. Ironically, Orton would be better suited to it, given his experience with the spread offense at Purdue and the pseudo-option they ran from time to time. It's only worked against the Raiders, who have a bad defense ... and within a week, the Chiefs, who also have a bad defense, shut it down pretty well. Denver's schedule isn't particularly strong, but Chicago and Minnesota will probably eat up the read option, and Buffalo and New England will test Denver's defense. If Tebow can't learn to throw accurate passes soon, Fox may regret moving away from the NFL-caliber QB currently on his bench in favor of the decision that says all you need to know about Josh McDaniels.
Cam Newton, on the other hand, deserves a good bit of credit. He is running an NFL offense, and he's doing a darn good job of it. Granted, in Steve Smith, Newton has what Tebow does not – an excellent receiver who will go and get it if he can reach it – but on the other hand, Tebow is not a rookie, he's a second-year player who's taken over a mediocre offense and helped to make it putrid. Newton is a rookie who's taken over a putrid offense and helped to make it pretty good. Think about it this way: if you could make a team from Carolina's offense and Jacksonville's defense, two of the more overlooked units in the league, it'd probably be a top-five team. The Panthers are 8th in DVOA on offense; the Jaguars are 3rd on defense. Instead, the worst defense in the NFC does things like give up 49 points and nearly 500 yards to what's nearly a bottom-quartile offense in Detroit. (Yeah, Newton's 4 interceptions contributed to those points, but not so much to the yards.) Ron Rivera did a good job rebuilding the offense; next year, the defense has to come first.
Third verse, same as the first: the Lions make silly mistakes and fall behind big, then come roaring back to win. The Dallas comeback looks better as the Cowboys improve, but the Minnesota game still looks bad, and this game even worse. Stafford made some bad decisions once again; fortunately, Carolina's defense is so bad that it was only a matter of time before things turned around. Don't read too much into his 335-yard, 5-TD performance. It may have built his confidence heading into Thursday's showdown with the Packers, but the problems that plagued Detroit against San Francisco and Atlanta are still there, and it's hard to imagine that a team this unsound can beat a team like Green Bay, even with the struggles the Packers have had on defense. Sure, Detroit has scored 42 or more three times already, something they haven't done since 1952, and they've come back from double-digit halftime deficits three times, something they've never done before ... but confidence and momentum don't make plays for you. The Lions can't fall behind Green Bay by 17 and expect to win.
Blaine Gabbert was surprisingly effective with the short passing game against Cleveland, converting 7 of 15 third-down opportunities, but the Jaguars crossed midfield exactly once in the first three quarters, and their last-minute drive stalled at the 1. Their defense again did all that could be expected of it, and again their offense did just enough to lose. Jacksonville has lost road games by 29, 6, 4, 10, and 4 this season. The blowout at the Jets would have been a loss no matter what (and that was the McCown Experience anyway), but this team could arguably be 6-4 and in the thick of the playoff race with even a mediocre offense. Whoever is Jacksonville's coach next year (the odds of Del Rio being retained are still slim, I think, particularly after he claimed not to know about the decision-making and playcalling on the final series from the 1) must look for a number of players on offense: help for the OL, depth at WR (if not a top WR), and a QB who can run an NFL offense. It's a shame that the defense is playing so well and the team is struggling so much.
ESPN's stat pages are so poorly written ... when you sort within a particular group, sometimes the data you get is not the same as the data you just saw. For example, when you look at kickers, they're sorted by field goals made to date, but if you sort by attempts, you get last week's data. Typical ESPN. Of course the NFL's site actually returns a Page Not Found error, which is even worse. The page was found, idiots. I was just on it. I had to go to Yahoo to get sortable stats. Anyway, the point is that Phil Dawson is just 4 of 6 from 20 to 29 yards, the only kicker in the NFL to miss two in that range. He's missed one from 40 to 49, and he's dead-on from 50-59 (6 of 6, leading the NFL in makes and tied in attempts with Janikowski, who's made 5, and Cundiff, who's made 1 – anyone want to ask John Harbaugh about those decisions?), and now he's only 2 of 3 from 30 to 39. Fortunately, it didn't cost the Browns, but if they hadn't stoned the Jaguars at the 1, that missed kick would have been more noticeable. Of course the blame would have been misplaced: when you put up just 14 points, the kicker is not your biggest problem. The Browns have kept most of their games close, so the problems aren't as apparent as they are on other teams (like Indianapolis), but Cleveland has yet to win a game by more than one score, and they've scored more than 17 points just once, against that Colts team in a 27-19 victory. Jacksonville and St. Louis have matched that; every other team, including the Colts, have scored more than 17 at least three times. (New Orleans and Green Bay have done so every game this year.)
The latest entrant in "Can you outscore Green Bay?", the Bucs, lost by only 9. They were the sixth opponent to score 20 or more points on the porous defense. (That's not a lot for an average NFL team, but it is a lot for an unbeaten team. Anyway, back to the Bucs.) Josh Freeman had a pretty good game, but did throw a pair of interceptions, and Tampa Bay would have loved to have those drives back. It's hard to blame the defense for getting shelled by the Packers, but then this is not your average Tampa Bay defense, either. I mean, St. Louis held the Packers to 24. Aqib Talib can't cover everyone at once. Gerald McCoy can't be your only threat on the defensive line. (Well, Adrian Clayborn is doing a nice job in his rookie season, but where's the rest of the pressure from the line?) Last year, people were praising Raheem Morris' young, talented team for getting into the playoff race and staying there until a late loss to Detroit pushed them out. This season, it almost seems like the Lions ended their hopes early: the Bucs are 11th and have losses to fellow wild-card contenders Detroit and Chicago. That effectively puts Tampa Bay four games back of both teams with six to play, and that's just not going to happen. The Bucs might run the table (unlikely, with games at Atlanta and Tennessee and home against Dallas), but even so, I doubt they'd pass four other teams and also get the Lions or Bears to lose at least four of six.
Detroit's defense may drop a bit as a result of their Carolina performance, but let's say that they're still a top-5 defense. Chicago is the only other team Green Bay has played who has anywhere near the Lions' quality at defense (and in fact, the two teams are comparable on defense, 4th and 5th prior to Week 11 games). The Packers' performance was its worst of the year, and it was still pretty good: 392 yards, 5 of 13 on third downs, 3 three-and-outs prior to garbage time, only one turnover. They forced only two turnovers and had a three-and-out after each one. All that, and they never trailed, led most of the game by at least two scores, and won by 10. The Bucs made too many mistakes to pose a challenge for Green Bay; the Lions have more potential, but then they just gave up 35 to Carolina. It's hard to see this team dropping a game until (unless) they rest their starters, but then last year's Chicago team had a better defense than this year's Packers do, and when Cutler went down, they ground to a halt. (And remember the Packers were shut out by Drew Stanton and the Lions when Rodgers suffered a concussion and missed most of the game.)
The Bills have gone from 5-2 and in good position in the East to 5-5 and lucky to be in the race for a wild-card spot, and even that's in doubt with the Jets and Tennessee up next, two teams tied with them at 5-5. The other losses were understandable, but this loss, I don't know. This looked like the old Bills, not the new Bills. I don't know that history plays much of a role in most games, but if you've just endured a difficult season, when you begin to struggle, it's got to be hard to avoid thinking "yep, just like last year." Buffalo is definitely a better team this year, but it's not hard to see them finishing 5-11.
I saw someone trying to praise Reggie Bush for scoring touchdowns. (It was on Yahoo somewhere. They do a good job of investigating stories, but have virtually no analytical content. Every story boils down to "Ooh, shiny!") Touchdowns are obviously important in terms of scoring, but they aren't so important that everything else you do should be ignored, especially as a running back, or in Bush's case, "running back". Sunday's stats: 15 carries, 32 yards, 1 touchdown. Four receptions on five targets, 34 yards. Which was better? Hint: not the running. Here are his runs: 3 on 1st and 10 (fail), 3 on 1st and 10 (fail), -2 on 1st and 10 (fail), 2 on 1st and 10 (fail), 2 on 1st and 10 (fail), 6 on 1st and 10 (success), 5 on 2nd and 4 for TD (success), 4 on 2nd and 17 (fail, not really his fault), 11 on 1st and 10 (success), 0 on 1st and 10 (fail), -4 and 2nd and 10 (fail), 0 on 1st and 10 (fail), 1 on 1st and 10 (fail), 0 on 2nd and 9 (fail), 1 on 2nd and 8 (fail). If we leave out the good-luck-on-that play, it's 3 of 14, which is not really good. Buffalo's defense is not that good, and still Bush struggled to get anything on most carries. (Those weren't just average failures. Needing 4 on first down, Bush got 2 yards or less 6 times in 10 carries.) Daniel Thomas is a running back. Reggie Bush is a wide receiver. (Side note: USC players are overrated. Draw your own conclusions about the Pac-12.)
The Raiders are not only leading the West, but are just a game out of first overall in the AFC ... and they have a tiebreaker edge over Houston thanks to a head-to-head win. Could Oakland actually get a first-round bye? With Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit on the schedule, they'll have to earn it, but with Houston likely to struggle in Schaub's absence, and considering the obvious flaws in Baltimore (offense) and New England (defense), it's entirely possible. The Raiders put this one away early (24-7 at halftime, 27-7 after three) and then sat on the ball to win, although they probably should have thrown the ball more in the second half: Michael Bush had an uninspiring 3.6 YPC day (30/109). Then again, Palmer had just 164 yards on 17 of 23, so maybe they were only going to get short gains even if they did throw more often. Up next: the Bears without Jay Cutler. Time for Oakland's weak defense to teach Chicago fans that Caleb Hanie isn't the answer to anything.
Christian Ponder threw three interceptions, fumbled once, and was sacked five times, so it's not like he had a great game, and Oakland's defense isn't that good. (I think I just said that.) This is not going to be one of those games that people use as an example of the wisdom of the switch at QB. This game showed why Vikings fans might be watching the worst team in the NFC. St. Louis might be worse on both sides of the ball, I guess, so maybe second-worst, but there's no question that Carolina has something Minnesota doesn't: a functional offense. People are rightly bashing Denver for the Tebowne, but the Vikings deserve just as much criticism for building a run-heavy offense in a league where passing is the way to win. They're just now realizing that it won't be enough to find someone to throw short passes and hand off 30 times, especially not with a defense that has trouble stopping just about anyone.
Not Tony Romo's Fault. No turnovers, 23 of 37 for 292 and 3 TDs ... if the Cowboys had lost this game, it would not have been Romo's fault. Blame special teams for their struggle: a holding penalty after a 63-yard punt that backed the Cowboys into a hole they couldn't escape, a 23-yard punt out of that hole, a 32-yard punt return after the next drive that set up another Washington touchdown, another 55-yard punt return that resulted in no points ... even if Dallas manages to hang on to the East lead, they'd better be hoping that Detroit is the top wild-card team, because the next-best team is Chicago, and their special teams are great. Washington's, believe it or not, are bad. Devin Hester might get 300 return yards against these coverage units.
Rex Grossman was ... uh ... not bad. Dallas' defense is pretty good. The return of Good Rex, if that's what this is, is too late to get Washington back in the race in the East, but it might mean that Washington can look to fill spots other than QB in next year's draft. Prior to this game, that was looking almost like an obvious move for the Shanahans. Of course Voldemort could demand that they pick up the best available QB anyway, or trade a few picks to get one (Washington actually has an extra 3rd and an extra pick somewhere else, with a 6th or so going to New Orleans), but if someone keeps him out of the room, Washington might be able to build more strength on the lines. Their picks will be valuable, too: Washington's just 3-7 against the sixth-easiest schedule in the NFL so far, and they have the fourth-hardest schedule remaining, with games left against both New York teams and New England.
Cincinnati had a nice comeback against Baltimore, particularly given that A.J. Green was out, but they have to be kicking themselves for the turnovers that set up the need for a comeback. Dalton's last two picks, both in Cincinnati territory, set up short fields that gave the mediocre Baltimore offense easy opportunities to score. Baltimore's scoring drives were 4, 5, 8, 1, and 1 plays ... yeah, I know, "1 plays" doesn't look right, you know what I mean. The one real sustained drive ended in a field goal. If they'd made the Ravens work harder on offense, they might have had a chance to steal a road win, and then Pittsburgh would be leading the division and Cincinnati would be the top wild-card team. (Interesting that North teams currently hold both #1 seeds and all four wild-card spots.) Next week's game at home against Cleveland should be an easy win, and then they can prepare for the big game at Pittsburgh the following week.
Can you really win a championship with just defense? Baltimore's offense is bad and their special teams are worse, but somehow they manage to do just enough to win over and over again. Granted, there is enough time left in the season for pretty much any contender (other than Green Bay and San Francisco) to go down in flames, but when you consider that Baltimore's only loss to a fellow contender is to Tennessee, a team well down in the AFC standings, the Ravens are actually in a really good position. This Thursday's game against San Francisco is easily their hardest remaining game; if they win that, it's not a stretch to see them at 12-3 going into the season finale at Cincinnati, and that will definitely be #1-seed territory. (Only three other teams have just 3 losses, and one is Pittsburgh, the team Baltimore swept.) Certainly Flacco will have to be more careful with his passes if the Ravens are to make a playoff run, but they could well be making that run in Baltimore ... and possibly Indianapolis too.
Seattle did well to pick up a win on the road, but they're still not a good team. I have no idea how this team beat Baltimore and the Giants but lost to Cleveland. With Philadelphia, Chicago, and San Francisco still on the schedule, they can have a reasonable impact on the NFC playoff race, but unlike last season, they'll be nowhere near it.
The Rams' "how'd they do that?" win was the New Orleans game, of course, the one that buried any chance of the Saints getting a break during the first round of the playoffs. Any thoughts of a happy second half that started after the Cleveland win ended after a 7-point outing against the Seahawks. If St. Louis doesn't beat Arizona at home Sunday, they'll be 2-14 and wishing that the Colts had signed a QB in the offseason. (At worst, the Rams would pick fourth, and that's still not a bad position to be in.)
Yeah, Skelton had a bad game, but San Francisco's defense is strong (it's their offense that's weak). Putting in Bartel to figure out what he can do was probably a good idea, but let's not be throwing Skelton away just because he had the worst game of his short career against a team much better than the Cardinals. It's hard to believe that this team is just three years removed from that fourth-quarter rally that nearly became only their second league title in 87 years. (Yeah, the franchise goes back that far: they were actually around in the APFA days as well.) Just as Detroit has risen from 0-16 to 7-3 and a possible playoff run, Arizona has fallen from that 9-7 team that, like the Colts two years before, improbably hosted the conference championship game and won to make it to the Super Bowl (but unlike the Colts, couldn't take home the trophy). This team looks like it's years away from contending again.
San Francisco's remaining regular-season tests will come from the AFC, starting with the Ravens, in Baltimore, on a short week. They have that game and a Monday night game against Pittsburgh to help them figure out what needs to be tweaked for the playoffs (hint: passing), and then four practice games against divisional opponents before they get a first-round bye, and trust me, nothing is going to stop them from getting that bye. The rest of the division is so bad that they could rest Alex Smith and Frank Gore and still finish as the #2 seed. (Remember that New Orleans has three conference losses. Even if the 49ers fall to both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, they'd still be 11-1 in conference play.)
Jake Locker, welcome to the NFL. Remember that if Chris Johnson is in the game, you have no running game. (12 carries, 13 yards. Locker nearly beat that on a single carry.) Three of Tennessee's five losses have been by seven points or fewer; a running game wouldn't necessarily have helped in any of those games, but it sure couldn't have hurt. Just like Tebow is the poster child for QB W-L record as the dumbest statistic in football, Johnson is the poster child for not giving a RB a blockbuster contract. There is too much available talent (Exhibit A: Kevin Smith, who was, granted, an RFA) to justify putting so much of your cap into that position.
Matt Ryan did have a pretty good game against the Titans, although the last three drives prior to putting the game away were 12 plays, field goal; 6 plays, punt; and 9 plays, fumble. Atlanta converted only 4 of 12 on third down, putting Tennessee in position to make a late run. Fortunately, the Falcons ran out the clock on their last drive, but you get the feeling that they just don't have the skill on offense necessary to win playoff games. With Julio Jones out, this looks just like the team that needed to draft him in the first place, the team that is supposed to have decent talent (White, Gonzalez, Ryan, Turner) but doesn't seem to get enough out of it. Sure, they beat the Lions, but Chicago and Green Bay dispatched them easily, and you already know about the New Orleans game. I don't think Ryan has lived up to his ridiculous nickname ... he looks pretty much like any other young QB, not quite sure of what he's doing, just talented enough that he can make you look good, not quite talented enough to avoid critical mistakes in big situations.
Oh, Philip Rivers ... here's a gift-wrapped chance to get back into the game, and you throw an end-zone interception. San Diego's special teams gave Chicago possession three times in four drives in Charger territory, and all four of those drives resulted in touchdowns, but San Diego was still within reach prior to that mistake. Rivers' final interception on the next drive (on his next pass!) sealed the game. Rivers' 4.4% interception percentage is third-worst in the league, better only than Kyle Orton and The Rex Grossman Experience. His 5.9 ANY/A is solidly middle-of-the-pack. He's been sacked 25 times, fourth-worst in the league, but that's a function of passing attempts: the three guys who are worse, Roethlisberger, Bradford and Tarvaris Jackson, all have significantly fewer attempts. The running game isn't the problem in San Diego, but the passing game has been, and a lot of that is on Rivers' shoulders, I think.
The injury to Jay Cutler isn't going to be as big of a deal as you think during the season, but it's probably going to prevent the Bears from making a Super Bowl run this season, just as it did last season. The Bears just use their offense as an occasional way to finish off drives: the heart of the team is the defense and special teams, and Sunday, that was true yet again. The defense didn't sack Rivers and only hit him once, but did get two big interceptions to stop fourth-quarter drives, and you probably read about the big returns. The one thing about this streak, though, is that it's come mostly against weaker teams. Detroit's the best team of the group, and their qualifications are sketchy. Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and San Diego aren't that good, and the Bears stomped only one of those three teams. They have only two games left against decent opponents, so that should be enough for Chicago to make the playoffs as long as the return teams continue to work magic. If Hanie or his backup have to move the offense 70-80 yards, though, the Bears could have problems.
DeSean Jackson just doesn't get it. Yeah, the rule about 15-yard penalties canceling out is silly (especially when there are opposing personal fouls and nothing happens), but it is what it is. You make a big play and your first reaction is not just to flip the ball at Giants on the sideline (and it's hard to imagine he didn't know exactly who the target was), but to continue to mock them after you make your way back onto the field ... dumb. Just dumb. Distractions? The Eagles haz them already. They should give Jackson the boot: sit him for the rest of the year. He just got back from a one-game suspension for basically putting himself above the team (go all in: either sit everything out or participate in everything, otherwise it looks like you're being lazy to get out of meetings, which he probably was), and this is his reaction? Let the NFLPA protest. They like lost causes. Deactivate him and leave him at home. Keep him away from the guys who are working hard to get Philadelphia back in the playoff race.
The Giants need to be really careful. A win would have put them virtually even with New Orleans, with Monday night's game giving the winner a one-game-plus lead for the #3 seed in the NFC. The home loss dropped them to 8th in the conference; there's a cliff between them and the 4-6 teams, but those include Seattle and Philadelphia, two teams who've beaten the Giants, and a loss to New Orleans would put New York too close to the edge. (At least the Giants split with the Eagles. They'd lose a tiebreaker to Seattle because of the head-to-head loss.) With Green Bay after the Saints game, it's not unreasonable to see the Giants at 6-6 and falling quickly out of the playoff picture ... and their next game after that is a Sunday night game at Dallas, who has Miami and Arizona next and might well be 8-4.
Nobody really thought the Chiefs had a chance at New England, did they? OK, let's move on.
New England is now in a virtual tie with Houston for first in the conference, with Baltimore just behind them due to playing one fewer conference game. The Patriots play neither team, which means, well ... if the Eagles don't stop the one-dimensional Patriots this week, expect to see boring old Bill Belichick at 13-3 and sitting at home during the wild-card round, waiting patiently for the next victim in Foxborough. I'll read their schedule to you, and you stop me if you hear a game they might lose. Indianapolis (hahahahaha), at Washington, at Denver, Miami, Buffalo. Right. Me either. This team shouldn't be that good, not with the defensive problems they've had, but remember the 2006 Colts? Their offense was great, their defense was not ... and then in the playoffs, the defense turned in three great games, and the offense made up the difference the one time the defense couldn't get it done. You don't have to dominate the regular season (as the defending champion Packers will tell you), you just have to win in the playoffs.

Playoff teams are starting to separate in the NFC: good news for the Lions and Bears, because a Giants collapse might mean that Atlanta is the only remaining team that might pose a threat. (Good for the Bears, who have a win over Atlanta; bad for Detroit, who lost to them.) In the AFC, it's still a big mess from top to middle. The only thing we know is that Indianapolis is still the worst team in the league. Hey, the second-worst team in the conference is on a three-game winning streak, and the third-worst team has one of the best defenses in football. In the NFC? Well ... how about that Newton kid?

NFL week 10: better late than never

2011-11-20T14:03:00.001-05:00

So Thursday games began last week, so it's a good thing I'm watching stuff closely, because last week was busy, and as a result it's Sunday and I haven't written anything yet. Here goes a quick look around the league:

If Oakland wins the AFC West, the trade for Palmer may turn out to have been a decent one. Certainly Indianapolis could have used him, but then that's what they thought about Collins, and you can see where that went. San Diego's defense seems to be a really big problem, so I don't know that Palmer deserves a ton of credit, but he was accurate and put up a lot of yards, and Rivers was not quite so accurate. (Palmer: 299 on 20 attempts, 14 completions. Rivers: 274 on 47 attempts, 23 completions.) Big win for Oakland, big loss for San Diego.
Detroit and Chicago are tied at 6-3, which is appropriate, because in many ways, they're similar: offenses that are potent when things go well but puzzlingly weak when they don't, defenses that can shut down just about any team in the league. The main difference is on special teams, where the Lions are very bad and the Bears are very good, and that showed up Sunday. The two interception TDs reflect Stafford's decision-making process, I think. The knock on him coming out of college was his accuracy, and he's struggled with that, but I think it's also a lack of quality OL. He's learned to get rid of the ball rather than take big hits, but he still thinks he can fire a ball into any coverage, and he can't. Chicago took advantage of that and pulled even with Detroit in the division, which also means in the wild-card race. With division tiebreakers coming first, Chicago couldn't afford to drop two back plus a sweep at Detroit's hands; now each team has to take care of business.
New Orleans looks pretty safe in the South with their win over Atlanta. I think Mike Smith probably made the right call, but he should be consistent: there was another fourth-and-one in Atlanta territory where he didn't go for it. Also, in the games I've seen, Atlanta has run the ball up the middle even when they weren't having success doing so (44% of their carries, which is actually less than the NFL average of 50%, so maybe I'm not reading this correctly), and I think this makes their chances of converting worse than those of the average team. Calls like that keep Atlanta a mediocre team instead of the playoff contender they seem to think they are.
Pittsburgh had a big win at Cincinnati. That's the kind of game you have to win if you're really a contender, and just as Detroit learned against San Francisco and Atlanta, Cincinnati's learning that you can't just put a few wins together and call yourselves a good team. They're 16th in DVOA, which is generally on the outside of the playoffs, but with the AFC carefully beating each other up, they might yet sneak in if they can surprise Baltimore this weekend.
St. Louis pulls out another big win – don't laugh. When you're struggling, every road win is a big win. No one's talking about Sam Bradford being the next great-QB-name-goes-here, though: his 4.7 ANY/A is on a par with guys like Curtis Painter and Kyle Orton. (Before you make a Purdue joke, Drew Brees is at 7.2.) To be fair, it's not all Bradford. St. Louis is just a bad team, through and through. I suppose Spagnuolo has to take some of the blame for not building a better team at this point. Cleveland isn't much better; although McCoy was pretty accurate, he didn't move the ball very well, and the Browns struggled in the red zone again. You have to wonder if Holmgren is going to build anything meaningful in Cleveland: Browns fans have suffered through change after change and really have nothing to show for it. Why should the next guy bring anything different?
The Bills aren't out of the playoff race, and the Cowboys aren't securely in it, but you could forgive their fans for thinking that way. Remember back when we were talking about Detroit, Tennessee, and Buffalo as playoff teams? They don't either. A road loss is understandable, but falling behind 28-7 at halftime isn't. The Bills looked completely out of it last week, and the AFC race is crowded enough that they can't afford to lose many more of these. It's one thing to be a couple of games out with 3-4 weeks to go, but it's another to have to pass 5 teams in those 3-4 weeks. Buffalo's not in that position yet, but time's running out, and Dallas isn't much better off.
The Colts lost their easiest remaining game, and Painter looked terrible in the process. The move to put Collins on IR looks worse and worse as the season goes on, unless his post-concussion symptoms are still present. (I never saw anything to that effect, but I could have missed it.) Neither of these coaches might be around next year, but that isn't going to fix the personnel issues they both have. It says something about the Colts' defense that Blaine Gabbert was 14 for 21 against them.
The Broncos are finally using Tebow for what he is: a running back who had experience at QB at a lower level. If they only had a guy on the roster who'd played QB and could hit receivers and such ... if only ... I think it's funny that the same organization that essentially dropped Orton for throwing interceptions will keep Tebow even though he can barely even complete a pass. They'll learn, I guess. Kansas City, on the other hand ... ugly loss at home. If this keeps up, Haley won't make it until the end of the season. Without Cassel, the Chiefs' offense will be even worse than it is now, and you can't really blame all that on the absence of Jamaal Charles.
Miami's sudden resurgence is interesting, but then you look at the teams they beat (Kansas City and Washington) and it's not that surprising. Schedule strength means a lot, you know. Maybe Moore really is becoming an adequate replacement QB, something Washington would love to have. Grossman is terrible, as everyone except for the Shanahans seems to have known coming into the season. If Beck isn't any better, who else can they play?
The Cardinals pretty much ended Philadelphia's playoff hopes. With or without Vick, this team isn't playing well enough to earn a postseason spot. Maybe they should send DRC back to Arizona? He might actually have a better shot with the Cardinals than with the Eagles. Arizona's defense did a good job shutting down Vick and Philadelphia, and yet another disappointing loss means that the (ha ha) Dream Team is now 12th in the NFC, three games behind the two playoff teams (Detroit and Chicago) without considering tiebreakers. They're really in the same boat as Arizona: using the rest of the season to figure who stays and who needs to go.
Big win for Houston, blowing out a decent Bucs team at Tampa Bay. Without Schaub, it'll be interesting to see if the Texans can hold onto a first-round bye, but they may have built a big enough cushion to maintain that spot, and they do have a light enough schedule that they should get at least 10 wins in any event. Tampa Bay isn't that far out of a playoff run, but they really haven't shown that they have that level of talent this season. Josh Freeman is showing his lack of experience ... maybe next year will be the year Tampa Bay contends in the South.
Tennessee picks up a needed win in Carolina. Keeping Cam Newton in a check is a good sign for the defense; the offense looked good, but then the Panthers' defense is terrible, so that's more of an expectation than an accomplishment. Chris Johnson looked less like an anchor this game than he has most of the year, and Matt Hasselbeck still looks like a reasonable QB. (Perhaps a little too soon for Seattle to have given up on him?) Carolina's two wins make the season a slight improvement. It sounds callous to say it, but the losses really aren't that important. This season is more about finding young talent and building toward next season. Like most terrible teams, Carolina can't fix it all in one year.
Baltimore is going to regret this loss. Seattle is a tough place to play, but that's no excuse: their offense is bad, and their defense isn't good enough to make the Ravens struggle like they did. You have to question the playcalling, of course: only 12 carries when Ray Rice is getting 5+ yards a carry? Pete Carroll will pull out the occasional win like this, but it doesn't change my opinion of him: he's in over his head, and his tenure will last until Seahawks fans get tired of 4- to 7-win seasons with occasional upsets.
The 49ers win another big game against a playoff contender, and this one basically wraps up the #2 seed in the NFC for them. There are still seven games to go, but with a two-game lead on the Giants plus the head-to-head tiebreaker, San Francisco should finish right behind the Packers and wait to host New Orleans in the divisional playoffs. (Of course the Saints might not win their wild-card game, but then the #6 team is probably not going to be a strong one this year. Can you see Chicago or Detroit winning in New Orleans?)
Someday we'll look back and laugh at all the people who thought Mark Sanchez was a quality NFL quarterback. Of course we expect head coaches to be optimistic about their teams (do you want your coach to say that he doesn't think you'll make the playoffs?), but Rex Ryan has to figure out eventually that the Jets are simply not that good. They've got a solid defense, which is a requirement for pretty much any Super Bowl contender, but they're wasting time letting a mediocre QB run their offense. The Patriots have a bad defense this year, yet Sanchez made them look pretty good.
Green Bay crushed Minnesota at home. Well, duh.

The Packers and 49ers pull away from the pack in the NFC, while Chicago pulls even with Detroit and Dallas and Atlanta lurk behind them. Pittsburgh is suddenly looking for the #1 seed again as everyone waits for the Texans to collapse, and the playoff pack goes all the way down to the group of four teams at 5-4, all waiting for someone above them to slip up.

Lions season outlook, week 11

2011-11-20T12:29:00.001-05:00

While the score may have been surprising, keep in mind that 21 points came from the defense and special teams. The Bears' offense played about as well as you'd expect; credit goes to the Chicago defense, but those touchdowns aren't predictors of future performance. Massey's estimate of "slight underdog" was probably applicable here.

Massey projections:
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog (moved down)
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite (moved down)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

Essentially the opposite of last week, with the Green Bay game moving as well. Estimated wins are 10.4, so a little less than a full game down from last week. Still a decent shot at playoffs, but the Lions have used up their free games: they'll have to win the games in which they're favored to have a decent shot.

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.8, down 0.7
Playoffs: 62.3%, down 17.2 points
Division title: 3.7%, down 9.2 points
Top seed: 0.6%, down 2.9 points
NFC title: 2.8%, down 4.0 points
Super Bowl win: 1.0%, down 2.4 points

The loss to Chicago essentially removes any remaining chance of winning the division and getting the top seed; the NFC and Super Bowl odds drop as Detroit shows an inability to beat contenders on the road. Playoffs are still in the picture, but as with Massey's projections, the Lions need to hold serve at home and also win at Oakland.

As mentioned last week, this wasn't a killer, but it sure didn't help. Chicago needed the game more than Detroit did (falling back two games behind the Lions with Detroit holding a sweep would have put Chicago against the NFC East and South teams for the remaining wild-card spot). Carolina is a different story: they still have a long way to go to be decent, and the defense shows it. Detroit tends to play well against bad defenses, and I think that will be the case today. Lions, 37-17.

Last week: predicted 13-23, actual 13-37

Current mood: fingers crossed

Lions season outlook, week 10

2011-11-09T14:13:00.003-05:00

Obviously no changes on the Lions' side ... it was disappointing to see Chicago beat Philadelphia because it puts the Bears even with Detroit if they win this week, but it does keep another team farther from playoff contention, and the Lions don't have to pass every team.

Changes below come from opponents' results:

Massey projections:
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

Not much to note. The Green Bay home game is about to flip to underdog status, and the Minnesota game is just barely overwhelming. The Lions are still heavy favorites or better in four of their remaining eight games, which suggests at least a 10-6 record, and in fact estimated wins are up again to 10.94. (Remember that the Lions have three games as underdogs where the likelihood of them winning is 40% or better.)

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.5, unchanged
Playoffs: 79.6%, down 4.1 points
Division title: 12.9%, down 7.1 points
Top seed: 3.5%, down 1.4 points
NFC title: 6.8%, down 1.7 points
Super Bowl win: 3.4%, down 1.0 points

The Chicago win establishes the Bears as a serious contender for a playoff spot (up 22.6 points to 62.2%, third among wild-card teams behind Detroit and Atlanta). Green Bay continues to recede in the distance: while their defense still looks flawed, their offense still looks good enough to overcome those mistakes.

The meat of the schedule begins Sunday. A win in Chicago would be a huge boost to Detroit's playoff hopes; a loss isn't a killer, but it does create problems, given that the loss to Atlanta gives the Falcons a head-to-head edge. The Bears are vulnerable, just as the 49ers and Falcons were. Playoff teams win at least some of these games. Make it happen.

Do I think it will? No. The Lions had several chances to win the San Francisco game at home and did not, and Dallas doesn't yet look like a contender. Until Detroit can beat a contender on the road, I'm not sure they can get it done. Bears, 23-13.

Last week: no game

Current mood: pessimistic

NFL week 9: road teams rule

2011-11-09T14:13:00.002-05:00

The top of the AFC draws more closely together as the bottom begins to separate. Green Bay shows yet again how vulnerable they are, but hold on to win, as 9 of 14 games go to road teams, the most since some week I don't know about. (I'd check on p-f-r but I can't get through right now.)

Big win for the Jets, and some credit is due to Mr. Sanchez. He had two turnovers, but completed nearly 75% of his passes and converted 6 of 11 on third downs. As usual, the defense had a lot to do with the victory, but they didn't carry Sanchez the entire way this week. (Bad news: a red zone interception on their first drive. Good news: TD drives of 79 and 84 yards to put the game away.)
This was Buffalo's chance to put some distance between themselves and the Jets and Patriots, but instead of being a game up on New England and two on New York, they're in a three-way tie, and with a game coming up in New York, they could find themselves fighting for a wild-card spot if they can't return the favor after Thanksgiving. On the other hand, even though the Bills have struggled against good defenses, six of their eight remaining games are against weaker defenses (Miami twice, New England, Denver, Tennessee, and San Diego), so they may slip into the playoffs without having to work out those issues. Success, on the other hand ... well, even the wild-card round might work out if they can get the top spot, because it will almost certainly be the AFC West champ, but the divisional playoff would be against an AFC North or AFC East team, most likely with solid defense.
So yeah, Seattle's not returning to the playoffs. Tarvaris Jackson: 17 of 30, 0 TDs, 3 interceptions. Marshawn Lynch had a pretty good game, but you can't win on running alone unless you have an exceptional defense, and Seattle's defense is far from exceptional. (Their run defense is actually pretty good, but this isn't the right year for that to matter.) Jackson, surprisingly, is playing much better than Charlie Whitehurst did, but QB is still a position of need for Seattle. All those of you desperately hoping that Seattle chooses Matt Barkley so that he and Carroll can go down in flames together, raise your hands ...
Tony Romo didn't exactly tear up the Seahawks' secondary, but he did throw for 279 yards and two scores with no interceptions and no fumbles. The Cowboys converted nearly 50% of their third-down tries (6 of 14), so even though they struggled once again to get to the end zone, they did keep Seattle's offense off the field to a reasonable extent: time of possession was split. This doesn't sound too bad, but keep in mind that Seattle's defense is not that good. Dallas should have destroyed Seattle, especially at home. This is simply not a playoff-caliber team.
Speaking of playoffs, the Falcons climbed back into the NFC race with their shredding of the Colts. Matt Ryan is still having issues (14 of 24, including an interception at the 6 that was returned for the Colts' only score), but as long as Atlanta can beat bottom-feeders, they can hang in the wild-card race. This week's game against New Orleans will give them a shot at the division: lose, and they're probably out of it. Win, and suddenly they're even with the Saints.
No surprises Sunday in Indy: although the Colts did do a pretty good job most of the time, the two plays on which Julio Jones got loose turned the game from a long shot into an impossibility. Atlanta's defense is strong, so it was unlikely that Painter would get too much done, and indeed he didn't. Time to look ahead to Jacksonville and Carolina: if there is a chance to avoid joining the 2008 Lions, those games would be it.
I can't explain Miami's win at Kansas City. Moore was 17 of 23 with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, but the Dolphins converted just 3 of 10 on third down. Miami only ran 47 plays ... they did gain a lot on those plays, but they didn't force turnovers, and they didn't have long punt returns, so I guess they just made the most of the chances they had. They did stop the Chiefs four times on downs, including twice on the Miami 3, and did hold them to three three-and-outs deep in Kansas City territory, so maybe that was a contributing factor. At any rate, it was a huge win for Miami: they avoid 0-for-2011 and maybe give Sparano a few more weeks as head coach. (On the other hand, it may have also made Reggie Bush look more like an actual RB, and that could be a burden for the next coach to bear.)
Any questions about Kansas City being a viable playoff contender? No? All right, let's move on. Exactly two teams since 1940 have split their first 8 games while being outscored by 70 points or more (no team won more than 4 games in that scenario): the 1989 Steelers and the 1965 Giants. The Steelers, the team that got blown out 51-0 by Cleveland in Week 1 and 27-0 by Houston (the Oilers) in Week 7, actually made the playoffs, slipped past Houston in overtime, and fell to Denver in the divisional playoffs. The Giants finished four games back of Cleveland in the NFL East and and were nowhere near the playoffs. I think this Chiefs team is closer to the Giants than the Steelers.
Tampa Bay finished their split with New Orleans, to no one's surprise. They now have four losses, all against possible playoff teams, including losses to two possible wild-card competitors (Detroit and Chicago). Sitting tied for 8th at the halfway point, the Bucs can't afford to lose many more games: not only do they have to win games just to get in position, but they also have to pass at least 3 teams (depending on the tiebreaker with Dallas) to get where they need to be.
The Saints' defense did a good job sealing the win for New Orleans, keeping them in the drivers' seat in the South. That's kind of important, because with San Francisco and Green Bay at 7-1 and 8-0 respectively, New Orleans is looking at a #3 seed at best: should they drop out of the lead, they could well find themselves behind Detroit and Chicago or Philadelphia or Atlanta, depending on who seizes control of the other wild-card spot. As with most NFC teams, the weakness here is the defense, not the offense, so it's important for them to stand up against possible playoff teams.
Another game, another adequate offensive performance, another easy win for San Francisco, giving up just a 59-yard field goal at the end of the first half and a last-minute touchdown in the second half. There's no real need for Harbaugh to change anything, not with a five-game lead in the West, and with five games left against that division, even if they lose the other games (Giants, Ravens, Steelers), that's still 12-4, which should be no worse than a #3 seed and will more likely be a #2 seed; a win over the Giants would practically lock that away. They're still the NFC version of the Jets – Smith isn't going to win them many games and would likely lose a playoff game for them – but they don't have much choice right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see Harbaugh pick up a QB in the 2012 draft, though.
Turn out the lights, the party in Washington is over. Washington's now 3-5, three games back of the Giants and falling, and with no offense in sight, it's hard to imagine this team anywhere near the playoffs. They'll finish below .500, Shanahan will be fired, Voldemort will trick someone else into coaching the team, and the process will repeat itself. The franchise has won two playoff games in 12 seasons with Voldemort as owner (sadly, one of the two wins was over Detroit in Snyder's first year, 1999) ... actually, let me continue that parenthetical thought. In 1999, they beat Detroit but lost to Tampa Bay. In 2005, they beat Tampa Bay but lost to Seattle. (You may remember that Seattle team from the Super Bowl with questionable officiating.) In 2007, Seattle messed up the pattern and beat them again. It would be nice to say that Snyder ruined the franchise, but actually they'd missed the playoffs six straight years prior to his purchase. (Yes, the Lions were playoff regulars and Washington was not. Yes, this is the same universe.) He has, however, prevented them from getting any kind of continuity. It's interesting to think that someone close to my age knows so much less about football despite having so much more of a chance to affect a team. It's also interesting to see how many businessmen are more than willing to hire people to run their other businesses, especially in industries where they don't have knowledge, and yet they insist on being hands-on owners in an industry where they have almost no knowledge. Keep it up, Voldemort!
More of the same from Cleveland. The defense does what they can, but they get no help from the offense. Next year, the transition to the new offensive scheme should be complete, but there's no telling who'll still be around. Randy Lerner is another 40ish owner who's done nothing to distinguish himself among his peers: one playoff season (2002, his first as owner), one 10-win season that did not result in playoffs, and nothing else. (Well, he did do something: he reinforced the idea that the Belichick coaching tree is virtually worthless.) Cleveland fans wanted an expansion franchise to replace the Browns; more and more, it looks like they got an expansion franchise. They won't finish at the bottom of the AFC thanks to the Colts, but they won't be any closer to contending than they were last year, or the year before ...
The Texans are pulling away from the rest of the South, much as they've seen Indianapolis do season after season. With the Titans' surprising loss, suddenly a division title looks almost like a guarantee, especially with Andre Johnson due to return soon (if not against Tampa Bay, then perhaps after their Week 11 bye). Wade Phillips has once again picked a good horse to hitch himself to: Houston's fifth-ranked pass defense has played a significant role in the Texans' franchise-best start, but as at his other stops, there's little to connect to Phillips other than timing. Gary Kubiak doesn't likely care much, as long as they can continue to play at that level. Houston is one of the few teams that seems to have talent on both offense and defense, even with Mario Williams out for the year. That might give them an advantage over unbalanced teams like New England and the Jets.
Meh offense, solid defense ... the Bengals keep winning. I still think Mike Brown's locked in a closet somewhere and has no idea that his team is tied for the best record in the AFC. Just think, if they hadn't lost to Denver ... anyway, even though Cam Newton is getting all that attention in Carolina, Andy Dalton's done, well, hmm. He's barely above replacement level and significantly worse than Carson Palmer was last season, so what is it, exactly? Ah, it's the schedule. Cincinnati had the second-hardest schedule in the league last season, but has played the 25th-hardest schedule to date. It won't get much harder after this, so expect the Bengals to be in the North hunt (and the wild-card race) until the end.
The Titans are in very much the same situation as Tampa Bay in the NFC: 1.5 games out of first, tied for 8th in the conference, far enough back that they can't afford too many losses. When the two teams play after Thanksgiving, it'll likely be the end for one team's hopes, if indeed either team is still in the hunt. Finishing their home stand 1-2 likely means it's the Bucs who'll be the playoff contender: with games remaining at Atlanta, Buffalo, and Houston, Tennessee would almost need to win the rest just to have a shot at the playoffs, and that means beating both Tampa Bay and New Orleans in Nashville. 9-7 probably wouldn't be good enough anyway, but you've got to start somewhere, and in this case, "somewhere" is Charlotte. Lose to the Panthers, and the Titans can start planning for 2012.
TEBOWTEBOWTEBOW report: 10 for 21, 124 yards, 2 touchdowns. No turnovers, though, so he got that part right. His career-high single-game completion percentage is 55.6%, last season against Houston's awful pass defense. This year, he's up to 46.4% after the Oakland game. When he gets enough attempts to be eligible, he'll be next-to-last in the NFL, ahead of only Blaine Gabbert. Curtis Painter, on a significantly worse team, has completed 53.3% of his passes. Kyle Orton, the guy "responsible" for all of Denver's losses to date, completed 58.7% of his passes. The Broncos are winning despite TEBOW; don't let the media tell you otherwise. (When Orton leaves next season and Denver has no QBs at all, McDaniels' destruction of the franchise will have been complete.)
Oakland's special teams did them no favors Sunday. An 85-yard punt return for a touchdown, a 41-yard kickoff return to set up another short field (actually, that drive ended with a missed field goal) ... that plus three interceptions by Carson Palmer cost the Raiders a chance to take the lead in the West and bury Denver for good. Palmer will have the chance to post another 300-yard passing game at San Diego this week, and he'll need it: even in a weak division, you get only so many chances, and I think this may turn out to be one the Raiders couldn't afford to blow. I will say that Oakland seems to have chosen well with respect to replacement QBs ... makes you wonder what would have happened if the Colts had traded a couple of picks to pry Palmer out of Cincinnati instead of picking up Collins. (It's fair to say that Palmer wouldn't have left for a situation where he might not be the dominant QB, but then Campbell isn't out for the season and was playing well in Oakland, so there's no telling what'll happen in late December, not to mention next year.)
The Giants could have gone into Foxborough and lost, and no one would have been that surprised. They'd still be in first place in the East, they'd still have a good shot at the division, and we wouldn't have thought twice about it. Instead, they come away with a win, and not just a win, but a win on a last-minute drive. True, New England's defense is nothing like what it once was, but that doesn't mean that a drive on the road in those situations is easy, and Manning deserves credit for making it happen. The OL kept him clean (the Patriots recorded no sacks), and although Eli completed just over half of his passes, he was 4 of 5 on the first touchdown drive (plus a defensive PI call) and 3 of 6 on the second drive (plus another defensive PI). Just enough to get the job done. This was a huge start to New York's grueling second-half stretch (technically this was the last game of the first half for them, but you know what I mean). Another difficult game is up Sunday: a loss to San Francisco would make it hard for the Giants to get a first-round bye, but a win could push them closer to a shot at the #1 overall seed in the conference.
Four turnovers, two touchdown drives yielded in the last half of the fourth quarter ... this looks almost like an ordinary team, not a Patriots team. Lack of pass pressure is definitely an issue, and it's noteworthy that despite that problem (or perhaps because of it), Albert Haynesworth is no longer on the team. New England's remaining schedule is pretty soft, so they could still make the playoffs, but don't be surprised if they end up visiting the Jets or Bills and getting whacked in January. I just don't know if you can fix personnel issues this late in the season.
The one thing the Rams are doing well is avoiding interceptions. They have the third-fewest interceptions per drive, behind only the 49ers and Lions. They're dead last in points per drive and 26th in starting field position, though, and you could see that in the Cardinals game. They did not start a single possession in Cardinals territory, and they settled for field goal attempts on four of seven drives that reached Arizona's half of the field (the other three ended in punts). You'd think it was because they were having Bradford dump the ball off underneath instead of pushing it into coverage, but he's completing just over half of his passes ... if he is dumping it short, he's not even doing that well. Something has to change to take some of the pressure off the defense: there aren't too many games in NFL history where a team recorded two safeties and lost. (Denver did against Seattle during a loss in 1983 and Buffalo did the same against Houston in 2003; two other teams recorded two safeties on 10/5/2003, but they both won.)
Kevin Kolb should sit out this week as well. He's not going to gain anything by going up against his former team. Arizona is still a lousy team, even after their win over St. Louis, and they're going to lose to the Eagles no matter who is at quarterback. Better that he gets healthy for the return engagement in St. Louis than that he rushes back and gets pounded by the Eagles' and 49ers' defenses. Larry Fitzgerald managed to get a TD in the win, but it's small consolation: not only is he stuck on yet another bad team, but he's running about 20-30% under his normal receptions pace. (Strangely, his YPC is a career-high 17.0, well above his 14.9 in 2008. Maybe opponents just can't believe that Kolb or Skelton actually found him?)
Aaron Rodgers was very efficient yet again in San Diego, but yet again the defense nearly gave the game away at the end. Mike McCarthy has to be concerned about a team that forced only two punts and nearly gave up a 21-point fourth-quarter lead ... it's one thing for Dallas or Minnesota to give up a lead like that, but they're not contenders, and those were first-half or third-quarter leads anyway. It would have been hard to fault the offense if the Packers had lost that game. It's easy to say that that won't happen again, but the Chargers had a second-tier offense that instead looked like Green Bay's for much of the second half; the defense cannot perform like that against the Giants and possibly the Lions if Green Bay is to run the regular-season table, and if anything happens to cause problems on offense, this team could come to a crashing halt.
The two first-quarter mistakes Philip Rivers made may have cost the Chargers the game, but Rivers deserves credit for getting the team back into a position to make a run at a win. Antonio Gates looks to be either recovered from his latest injury or strong enough to fight through whatever pain remains. Mike Tolbert's doing a good job replacing Darren Sproles. The defense is really the area of concern, although it's hard to assign them much blame for failing to slow down the Green Bay juggernaut. They do have to play better against Oakland and Denver, though, and the Chicago game in between may be a good test as well. Jay Cutler will make mistakes if you let him.
The Ravens pulled off a dramatic sweep of the Steelers, giving them the inside shot at the AFC North title and a likely first-round bye (or possibly even the #1 seed, given that neither the South nor the West seems capable of producing a 12-win team, and the East may well beat each other up). The offense still doesn't look that good, but they did turn the ball over only once; John Harbaugh may be lowering his expectation to where Flacco is expected only to be a caretaker, rather than a problem-solver, and that might be more in line with the QB's recent level of performance. Flacco's still around his 2008 numbers rather than what he posted in 2009 and 2010, and that may not be enough to lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl win, or even to an appearance in Indy if they should face a team like the Jets in the playoffs. The Ravens need to know that the offense can get a touchdown or two when it's needed, and while that did happen Sunday night, it's not happened often enough to make this truly a championship-caliber team, even at 6-2.
Pittsburgh's defense allowed Baltimore to convert an amazing 14 of 21 third-down opportunities ... six drives of 10 plays or more ... although they gave up just one drive of more than 50 yards, that happened to be the game-winning drive, and it came after a drive that started at the Steelers' 46 and gained just 19 yards in 6 plays. Pittsburgh has come up short in both games against Baltimore, and with Cincinnati winning games against weaker opposition, there's a real possibility that those games might leave the defending AFC champs at home during playoff time. This Sunday's game at Cincinnati isn't necessarily a must-win game, but losing it would give Pittsburgh three division losses, all to teams ahead of them in the standings. It's one thing to look at the games against St. Louis and Cleveland as must-win games, but another to actually win them; don't overlook the boost the Browns might get if they knew they could knock the Steelers out of the playoffs with a January win at Cleveland.
Chicago did two important things Monday night: they beat a potential playoff competitor, and they kept Cutler from being sacked. They have the opportunity to do exactly the same thing Sunday, and repetition of the later event will have a direct impact on their ability to repeat the former. Giving up third-down conversions seemed to be an issue for the Bears, and they did have weaknesses in both aspects of their offense (two fumbles by Forte, just over 50% completions from Cutler), but a road win is a road win, and there's a huge difference between being 5-3 with a chance to tie for second in your division vs. being 4-4 with the possibility of falling three games back plus knowing you've lost the head-to-head tiebreaker. Chicago probably won't catch the Packers for first in the North or the NFC, but then they got first-hand experience last year that tells them home-field advantage isn't always necessary. Their next step is to beat Detroit; the rest can wait.
The NFC isn't strong enough to count most teams out of the hunt yet (except for the NFC West; San Francisco is in and the others are out), but the laughably-named Dream Team doesn't have much time to get things fixed. The Eagles are three games out of first, with a loss in hand against the first-place Giants, and they're two games out of the second wild-card spot, with losses in hand against both the Bears and Falcons. A loss November 20 at the Giants will likely end all playoff hopes; Dallas and Tampa Bay are both a game ahead of the Eagles, and there's no way Philadelphia could overcome even a three-game deficit in the division, much less a four-game deficit with the Giants holding a sweep. Win that, and they still might have to win out to take the division, which means beating the Patriots and Jets in Philadelphia.

Not much has changed; I guess the AFC West really is that bad, and no team in the AFC really seems to be that good, but then each week Green Bay seems determined to show how badly their defense can play, so I wouldn't suggest that Packers fans start checking with their Indianapolis-area friends about crashing in early February. (Hint: don't ask me. Hell no. Stay outside in the cold, freaks.) The NFC will probably see some separation in the next couple of weeks, but the AFC might have a number of teams in play all the way through Week 17. We'll see.

Lions season outlook, week 9 (bye week)

2011-11-01T19:02:00.001-04:00

Doing this just to track changes, even though there isn't anything to predict this week.

For the second time this year, the Lions absolutely dominated an AFC West opponent. All that proves, I think, is that the AFC West is terrible. (It's true that good teams stomp bad opponents, but the Lions did not stomp Minnesota.) The defense, in particular, made sure that this game wouldn't be like the last two. I bet Cliff Avril is looking forward to seeing more lefthanded quarterbacks in the league.

Combine this game with some interesting results across the league, and there should be some changes below.

Massey projections:
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

Again, all movement that makes sense given the Week 8 results (although keep in mind that it's a cumulative effect: these changes will get smaller and smaller as the season goes on). Estimated wins are up to 10.82, which reflects the difficulty of their remaining schedule. (Massey has the Lions 3rd overall, but with the toughest schedule in the last nine weeks.)

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.5, up 0.8
Playoffs: 83.7%, up 16.1 points
Division title: 17.0%, up 7.1 points
Top seed: 4.9%, up 2.2 points
NFC title: 8.5%, up 4.0 points
Super Bowl win: 4.4%, up 2.5 points

Green Bay still looks good, but they lose a tiny bit of ground from not playing. More important was the Saints losing; that, coupled with the Cowboys and Washington losing, took down a few of the teams likely to compete for a wild-card spot, which means that the Lions benefit.

Now Detroit gets to sit back and wait for a week. The way Chicago handles the pressure from Philadelphia may show how much Martz learned from the Monday Night loss to the Lions: the Eagles and Lions do some similar things and have similar pressure from outside (although the Eagles' secondary is much better, at least now that it's playing well). My guess is that they won't have been able to do too much, other than reminding Cutler not to hold onto the ball forever.

Last week: predicted 19-8, actual 45-10

Current mood: relieved

NFL Week 8: unsightly television

2011-11-01T16:30:00.004-04:00

If you watched any games Sunday, chances are that you wished you had spent your time differently. One of the best games of the afternoon matched a 2-win team and a 1-win team. Sunday night was another forgettable game, over almost as soon as it started, much like the Tebow Era in Denver.

The Lions have played two complete games this year, both against AFC West opponents. The defense dominated the hopelessly overmatched Tebow, recording seven sacks and forcing three turnovers, two of which were returned for scores. The offense ripped through Denver's mediocre pass defense, with Stafford completing 70% of his passes for 267 yards and 3 TDs (and no interceptions). His first touchdown was on Detroit's first drive, with Titus Young standing alone in the end zone, no Broncos within 15 yards of him, waiting patiently for the ball to arrive. His last came on a play when Denver was offside and where Champ Bailey guessed wrong and couldn't make up the step he lost on Megatron. It was a good game to have right before the bye week, but doesn't necessarily say anything about how the Lions will respond to their post-bye schedule.
John Fox had to do it. It would be silly to ship Tebow somewhere without demonstrating that he can't get it done in Denver (and before you suggest that that would ruin his trade value, look around the league: there are plenty of misfits who keep getting jobs as backups or even as starters), so it was better to get it over with. The Broncos are two games behind everyone in the West and have Oakland and Kansas City up next; it's all but certain that those will be losses, especially with Tebow at the controls. He exemplifies the misplaced notion of "winner": just about anyone could be put at the controls of that Florida offense, and with a complementary defense, record W after W. It's all well and good to be a good runner, but that doesn't work in a league where the bench players are highly-touted college athletes. Even Cam Newton is only contributing about one-eighth of his value through his running; again, as in Tebow's case in college, touchdowns tend to distort the value of his game. (This is true for non-QBs as well: no doubt many were greatly impressed with LaDainian Tomlinson's 2006 season because of his TDs, but he was just third in DVOA among RBs that season. Counting stats tend to throw people off.) Tebow has a poor throwing motion and an inaccurate arm, and the name for someone with those characteristics is usually "wide receiver".
The train wreck that is the Colts' season continued through Tennessee on Sunday. Painter is gradually becoming more comfortable in the offense, but he's still having a lot of problems finishing both series and drives: Indianapolis was just 6 of 17 on third downs and scored just one touchdown on four trips inside the 10. The Colts did manage 158 yards on 26 carries, so it wasn't as though they were a one-dimensional offense, but without a red-zone target or a solid offensive line, Painter is probably worse off inside the 10 than he is outside it. (It makes sense when you think about it; the closer you are to the end zone, the smaller the area the safeties have to protect, so it becomes harder to complete the 6- to 10-yard routes that have been a staple of the Indianapolis offense when you don't have a laser rocket arm.) The Colts have a couple of possibly-winnable games coming up, though. After the Falcons visit this Sunday, they host Jacksonville and Carolina on either side of a bye week. Should they lose those, their best hope may be the week 16 game hosting Houston if the Texans have clinched a playoff spot and can rest starters by then. (This would depend on the top two spots in the AFC also being locked up by then; the AFC North winner might be two games ahead of Houston, but the AFC East winner might not be.)
Tennessee didn't look particularly impressive, so it was fortunate that they were playing an overmatched opponent. The Chris Johnson Experience continues to be one of the mysteries of modern football: I've seen a suggestion that he's simply trying to preserve himself to play out his long, lucrative contract, but that seems ridiculous to me, given that a) he'd be run out of town long before then if he were actually jaking it and b) the theory is that playing at half speed is a great way to get hurt (because you won't react in time to other people playing at full speed). I think it's more accurate to say that he isn't in great shape because of his holdout and that he simply isn't that good of a back in the first place. Once you get into the inevitable regression toward the mean that most backs have after a career year (this is the source of the so-called Madden jinx: of course you aren't going to have another good year after a career year, otherwise it wouldn't be a career year), the contract looks like a bad deal for the Titans, and looking at Johnson's performance this season (dead last in DYAR, third from the bottom in DVOA), it makes you wonder why they extended him in the first place.
So this happened. New Orleans went into St. Louis with a solid offense, expecting to blow apart the Rams' shaky defense, and instead they found themselves down 24-0 in the third quarter. The offense scored just two touchdowns, one coming in garbage time, so it makes you wonder how this happened. I can't say. Sometimes the Saints seem to get a little too cute on offense, spending too much time on fancy plays (see Mike Martz offense) and not enough on bread-and-butter plays. This time, it seemed that maybe the problem was that Brees simply couldn't get the ball downfield consistently. Again, having that trouble against the Rams' defense is odd. It's a big loss, especially given that the South doesn't play the West, so none of the Saints' division competitors are playing St. Louis. (Atlanta has beaten Seattle; Tampa Bay plays Carolina later this season.) Fortunately, the Saints can atone for this game by beating the Bucs and Falcons; that would send them into the bye with no less than a 1.5-game lead over both teams. Losing to Tampa Bay could be a problem, though, because that would give the Bucs a sweep, and that would force the Saints to sweep Atlanta to avoid a complete tiebreaker disadvantage.
Smoke and mirrors, or perhaps smoke, mirrors, and Steven Jackson. Somehow, St. Louis is no longer winless. A team that had exactly one decent game prior to Sunday, a 7-point loss to a team that hasn't won since, went out and beat one of the best teams in the NFC. Steve Spagnuolo has to feel good about that win, especially with the bulk of the Rams' tough schedule behind them. Pittsburgh and San Francisco (twice) remain, plus the are-they-or-are-they-not Bengals, but the rest of the games are possible wins if everything goes right. It was notable that the win occurred without Sam Bradford in the lineup, though. The overrated second-year player has followed up his poor rookie season with an equally-poor, if not worse, 2011, and it's worth considering whether or not the Rams would take another QB if they pick high enough in 2012. (Don't laugh: there are nine teams with 2 or fewer wins at this point.) I'm not suggesting that Feeley is any kind of answer to their problems, but Bradford certainly hasn't done anything yet to show that he can do more than throw a lot of passes.
Miami is getting this defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory thing down. They didn't have the Giants on the ropes, but they'd done enough to hold a lead late into the fourth quarter. It's hard to win those games, though, when you can't move the ball, something the Dolphins have struggled with all year. Reggie Bush had a seemingly-impressive game, gaining 103 yards on 15 carries, but that included gains of 35, 28, and 13 – 76 yards in total, leaving just 27 yards on his other 12 carries. He's still a wide receiver playing running back. At best, he'll get outside and get past people, but more often than not, he'll barely get to the line of scrimmage. Four of his carries were for 1 yard or less, and those simply aren't plays that this Dolphins offense can overcome. (On one series, Moore scrambled for a first down on third-and-long, a drive that ended in a touchdown; the other three carries led directly to punts.) Surprisingly, it's not the offensive line, or at least some of it isn't. Miami is 11th in ALY through six games (but 30th in ASR, although there is some question as to how much of that is on the QB and how much is on the line). Daniel Thomas has far outshined Bush at RB, but with Thomas out, that pretty much kills any running game the Dolphins should have. Marshall and Hartline have been pretty good at receiver as well, and Fasano has contributed at TE, but just as Thomas' injury has killed the running game (even if the Giants choose not to tackle on some plays), Henne's injury has killed the passing game. Matt Moore is still the guy who couldn't beat out Jimmy Clausen in Carolina. Tony Sparano will lose his job over this, but I don't think it's his fault that Miami has no depth.
The Giants nearly extended their Tale of Two Teams, almost adding a loss to the Dolphins to their losses to Washington and Seattle. New York now has three wins of four or fewer points, something that sounds uncommon but happens to one or two teams every year. Right now, those games are keeping the Giants separated from the pack in the East and in the hunt for the #2 seed in the NFC. (The Giants play both Green Bay and New Orleans later, so they could potentially do better than second.) For some reason, the Giants' offense tends to do really well against better opponents and struggle against weaker ones. That may be fine come playoff time, but there's no guarantee New York will get there. No one else in the East seems to be playing really well (Eagles fans, sit down until you can explain your pass defense), but a two-game lead is easy to overcome with head-to-head games, and the Giants still have four division games left to play, including two against Dallas.
Christian Ponder didn't suck against Carolina, so that may have been the difference between a win and an embarrassing loss. As it was, the Vikings still needed a poor decision by Ron Rivera and an inexplicable miss by Olindo Mare to avoid overtime on the road. Yes yes Jared Allen yes yes, but honestly, this team misses Ray Edwards. Their pass defense in general is not good, which is a problem in a division with Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford (who've both led teams to wins at Minnesota this season) and in a conference with Drew Brees (who'll visit Minnesota in December). The Vikings' passing game with Donovan McNabb was atrocious, so there is considerable pressure on Ponder to pick up the offense and turn things around fairly quickly. (The pressure should lessen a bit as the Vikings fall out of the playoff picture, but for now, it looks barely possible that they could get in.) Adrian Peterson is having another solid season, so he can help take some of that pressure off Ponder, but there are equally big problems on both sides of the ball. That missed field goal may have disguised them for a week.
Cam Newton is doing a great job for a rookie, but he's had some help. The running game has experienced a resurgence, in no small part thanks to some improved line play. The Panthers were 17th in ALY and 14th in ASR going into the Minnesota game; compare that with 27th and 31st in 2010. On the other hand, he's doing quite a bit of it on his own, and by "it", I mean "throwing the ball to Steve Smith because dude is always open even if you think he's not." Last year, Smith was targeted just 99 times by QB Carolina. This year, he's been targeted 73 times through 8 games, and his 46 receptions match his total from all of last season. Yes, more than a little of that comes from safeties unsure whether they should play run or pass, whether it's Newton or a back carrying the ball, but it also comes from having a guy who can throw the ball to his by-far-best receiver. Neither Clausen nor Moore understood that last year. (That bodes ill for Miami the rest of this season.)
I guess the Ravens are also who we thought they were. Yet another three-touchdown second-half lead is left by the wayside. It isn't all the loss of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, either ... Arizona's defense actually wasn't that good last year. They simply didn't replace DRC and didn't get better at other positions, and on top of that, Kevin Kolb has been miserable. The line is working much better on running plays – 30th in ASR, 4th in ALY – but I haven't seen any Cardinals games, so I don't know how much of that is on Kolb and how much is on the offense as a whole or on the protection specifically. The Baltimore game shows the weaknesses of the team, when you look closely at what happened: Arizona had just three drives into Baltimore territory, two ending in field goals and the other in a scaredy-punt. (It was fourth-and-15, true, but you don't punt from the 36.) Their touchdowns came on a punt return and after turnovers; when it was up to the offense, nothing really happened, and the defense couldn't keep generating turnovers. The St. Louis game will be gut-check time for Ken Whisenhunt; a loss there may mean it's time for him to start boxing up his stuff.
The Ravens were about 30 minutes away from dropping into third place in the AFC North, which is a scary place to be when you consider the number of teams with 4 or 5 wins who are not leading their divisions. At that point, Joe Flacco and the rest of the offense realized that it was a bad idea to keep giving Arizona the ball, so they went on two long scoring drives (80 and 88 yards) and turned an interception into another touchdown, then pinned the Cardinals with an I-guess-you-can punt that ended up setting up a short drive for the game-winning field goal. None of the early Super Bowl contenders have both a top-half offense and a top-half defense, so each has a significant flaw. To no one's surprise, the Ravens' flaw is on offense, as you can see from this game. The defense can hardly be blamed for giving up 27 points (or 20, given that the punt return came against special teams), not when Arizona was 2 of 11 on third downs (but 1 of 1 on fourth) and managed just 207 total yards. Joe Flacco has regressed from his previous top-10-type form to a more Sanchez-like quarterback; his completion percentage is down about 8 points from his career average, which is even worse when you consider that completion percentage is ... um ... actually down from the last few years, but anyway, overall performance is up (ANY/A of 5.9 vs. 5.7 in 2010 and 5.6 in 2009). You don't have to have a dynamic QB to be a championship team, but you can't turn the ball over frequently; a pedestrian offense can't overcome that, and even a great defense can't do much when you give up the ball inside your 30.
Congratulations, Blaine Gabbert! You just might be this decade's Joey Harrington: a guy with good college numbers who walks into the wrong situation and ends up beaten out of the league with not even your dignity intact. There's no guarantee that Harrington would have been successful had he been drafted by a better team, but he certainly had the odds against him when he arrived in Detroit, and a similar situation faces Gabbert. Jacksonville has a pretty good defense and an abysmal offense. Some of that is on McCown, but while Gabbert has been better, that just underscores how bad McCown was. The rookie has completed just under 46% of his passes through Week 7, worst in the league, and had 5 fumbles and 4 interceptions coming into the Houston game (where he added another fumble and 2 picks). The only thing keeping the Jaguars from the basement is that the Colts are that much worse. Jacksonville is like Baltimore Lite: not as good on defense, even worse on offense.
The Texans are still head-and-shoulders above the rest of the South, even if the standings don't yet reflect that. If Houston can continue to post wins through this part of their schedule, they should end up a couple of game ahead of Tennessee in December, and by the time they travel to visit the Titans on New Year's, they should be resting their starters. (With Carolina and Indianapolis the two games before that one, Houston should pick up any remaining wins they need to lock up the division.) It's a tribute to Houston that they've been able to do this with both Johnson and Foster missing parts of various games; well, that and the fact that injuries knocked out the Colts.
No quarterback, no running game ... Washington is in free fall. Just 10 first downs, 178 total yards, no points ... the defense cannot do it themselves. (Not that they aren't trying: London Fletcher was credited with 20 tackles Sunday. Granted, a lot of that can be scorekeeping, but 12 were solo tackles, and those are hard to fudge.) Expect the 49ers to rough up John Beck this week as well; if Washington can't bounce back the following week at Miami, it might be time for Voldemort to make some changes. You know he doesn't like it when things aren't going well, and losing to Miami is, these days, a sign that things aren't going well.
Ryan Fitzpatrick had a nice day for the Bills: 21 for 27, 262 yards, 2 touchdowns. The interception in the end zone wasn't a good thing, but the Bills avoided a problem when Washington couldn't capitalize on either that or the fumble in Buffalo territory. (That's the advantage of making mistakes against a team with a terrible offense.) The Jets are up next, and this will be a big game for the Bills. Win and they drop the Jets two games out; lose and they'll be tied with New York (but effectively behind them due to the head-to-head loss). The key will be similar to Sunday's game: don't give the Jets good field position. Make them work for yards and points and you can beat them.
New England: 50 plays, 213 yards, 3 of 10 on third down. No, they didn't have any long kick returns, and no, they only forced one turnover, so it wasn't like they could make the most of the possessions they had like Arizona did. Defensive problems are one thing – every team with a solid offense has them this season – but if other teams can shut down the Patriots' passing attack the way the Steelers did, Belichick will have all of January to figure out how to improve the team for next season. And no, before you ask, it wasn't that the Steelers have a dominant defense. This season, they're 10th against the pass, so they're not bad, but not the Ravens or Jets or Lions. (Ha ha. I just put the Lions' pass defense in the same category as teams like Baltimore and the Jets, and they belong there. Ha ha.) Those same Jets are on the schedule again in two weeks, so there isn't a lot of time to get those offensive issues straightened out.
Once again, Roethlisberger bombed a bad defense; this time, he didn't get quite enough points to produce a convincing win, but any win against a good team is a good win, especially with Cincinnati and Baltimore keeping pace (for now). Pittsburgh has a chance to go into their bye with a nice 1.5-game lead if they sweep those games, but to do that, they have to be more productive on offense. Both AFC North opponents have stout pass defenses (better than Pittsburgh's, in fact), so the Steelers can't afford to waste the opportunities they do get. Three red-zone drives ending in field goals, another inside the 30 that ended in a missed field goal ... Pittsburgh left a lot of points on the board against a bad defense, and it nearly cost them. If they do the same thing the next two weeks, they'll be 6-4 and in third place during their bye week.
So when you have two teams with bad offenses and better defenses playing, usually you figure that the offense that gets things done will win. (The idea being that if you're bad in one area, but get good production from it, the good areas will also produce and you'll win. It's the same thing with teams that cross, where one is bad on offense but good on defense and the other is the opposite.) So that basically happened: Cleveland had one McCoy-to-Cribbs touchdown and a whole lot of nothing else. Also, McCoy fumbled four! times ... Cleveland only lost one, but the thing to remember is that fumbles themselves are bad. (Not as bad as interceptions, which are of course always turnovers, but they do generally end the play right there, and they do sometimes become turnovers, and when a QB fumbles the ball, it's not uncommon for a bunch of defensive players to come running at the ball while the fast offensive players are downfield and unable to help out.) San Francisco's defense is very good, but I wonder how much of that was McCoy not reading coverages well or holding onto the ball too long (or both). That does come with experience, but one of the problems with a coaching change is that you can only do that so often; if things don't improve, next you start making changes at skill positions. McCoy has actually regressed from last season. The lack of a running game is most likely part of that, but maybe some of it is opposing teams learning about McCoy faster than he's learning to read NFL defenses. That's not a good sign.
Alex Smith had another caretaker game for the 49ers: don't turn the ball over, get some first downs, hand off to Frank Gore a lot, let the defense take care of the rest. It generally leads to unexciting games, but then I don't think most players care at all about the excitement factor if they are winning. (Most fans, for that matter, don't care as much as they might suggest. It's easy enough to take a team that might be playoff-caliber and destroy it in a year or two, if that's what you want ... just hire Josh McDaniels. Zing! See, I told you they wouldn't mind the slow-and-painful wins.) San Francisco already has a win at Detroit, and they host the Giants the week after next. They don't play New Orleans, but the two games above should give Harbaugh a decent idea of how his team stacks up against possible NFC playoff opponents.
Cincinnati lost to Denver but beat Buffalo. Which team is the real Cincinnati? Given that they're still coached by Marvin Lewis (who's in his ninth season in Cincinnati, which I think is 27 seasons in the real world) and owned by Mike (All in the Family) Brown, it ought to be the former. But the defense is actually pretty good. You'd think the story would be rookie Andy Dalton, who's made some Bengals fans forget about Carson Palmer nearly pulling a Barry Sanders (unless they saw Palmer play for Oakland, in which case they're really glad Dalton is starting), but the big deal is the pass defense. Cincinnati's playing well enough that Dalton can learn on the fly, which makes the defection of Palmer even less important. Perhaps the defense will fall back to earth against Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and Houston (with a game against Baltimore in there as well), but even so, this certainly looks more like the playoff team from two years ago than the 4-12 team from last season.
I see Pete Carroll is going back to that two-quarterback system that's so popular in college these days. I remain unconvinced that he is the right man for the job, that he's any more capable of coaching in Seattle than he was in New England before. The Seahawks took advantage of a weak schedule and division to squeak into the playoffs and pull off a big upset at home, but there is no chance of that this season. Instead, Seattle looks like a LEGO team, the kind that you put together when your little brother accidentally puts all of the sets together, and then for some reason, you can never find all the special parts to make the models the way the instructions say you should. Charlie Whitehurst just looks like a QB piece; he doesn't really fit there. (Not in an NFL set. See if the kid across the street has a CFL set.) Marshawn Lynch hasn't been able to provide any kind of running game (not that he was that good in Buffalo in the first place; don't be fooled by counting stats, and remember that 1000 yards in a season is just over 60 yards a game). I'd make fun of the punt that Cincinnati returned for what was essentially the clinching touchdown, but it was fourth and 18 from the 7. You could think about going for it there in that situation (down 8 points, under 4 minutes to play), but that's a really difficult call to make, especially after a sack on third-and-long, and if you don't get the first down, then it's probably worse than what you'd get from most punts anyway. (On the other hand, you'd have more time left on the clock, not compared to a punt-return TD, but to a normal drive after a punt.)
Dallas gave up 239 yards rushing to Philadelphia. This was not Tony Romo's fault. Romo going 18 of 35, yeah, that's kind of on him (although the Eagles' defense had something to do with that), but this was a game that Rob Ryan would like to forget. Michael Vick: 75% completions, 279 yards, no interceptions, two touchdowns. LeSean McCoy: 30 carries, 185 yards, two touchdowns. (Sometimes I get the impression that the Ryans just don't know when to shut up and coach. Buddy's act wore thin really fast in Philadelphia and Houston. Rex is getting old in New York. Jerry Jones isn't going to put up with games like this for long in Dallas.) Not all 3-4 teams are equal, and right now, the Cowboys look more like Washington than Philadelphia. Up next: a must-win game against Seattle before Buffalo comes to visit Jerryworld.
It's funny how winning division games can turn a season around. Three weeks ago, the Eagles were 1-4 and looking like the biggest waste of money since W's presidential library. Now, they look like they could at least challenge for a wild-card spot, and if they can knock off the Giants in New York, maybe they could get more than that. A soft late-season schedule that has them playing Seattle, Miami, and Washington looks really good right now; the return trip to Dallas may not be so nice, but by then the Cowboys' season could well be over. First, though, Philadelphia has to take care of business against Chicago. The Bears' defense is weaker than the Cowboys' defense (no, really, it is), but it's still stout, and Vick doesn't need to put additional pressure on his defense. All he needs to do is move the ball, get points from drives, and let Cutler deal with the noise and the pressure.
So I guess maybe the Chargers just aren't that good after all. Their biggest win is a 10-point victory against Miami at home. They've got two more losses coming up, against Green Bay and Chicago, and honestly even with the Raiders' quarterback situation, that game could be up in the air. San Diego will be in the division race until the end, if for no other reason than that no one in this division is any good, but they won't have much of a chance in the playoffs if they do win it. Can you see the Chargers beating New England or Buffalo or Baltimore or Cincinnati or Pittsburgh? I can't. Something happened to this team between last season and this season. I haven't been following San Diego closely enough to know what it was, but whatever it was, Norv needs to find it and fix it now. Marty Schottenheimer got fired for not winning enough playoff games, but after the 2007 AFC Championship appearance in Turner's first year, the Chargers have won just one, in 2008 (and in overtime, at that). The natives, as they say, are restless.
By the same token, the Chiefs still aren't any good. They've just beaten several bad teams: Minnesota, Indianapolis, Oakland, and San Diego. With Miami and Denver next, they should be sitting at 6-3, all ready to convince foolish people that they're serious AFC contenders, but they still don't have a good QB, they still don't have a good backup for Jamaal Charles, and they still turn the ball over too much (16 giveaways, tied for second in the NFL with Philadelphia, San Diego, and Denver). The real Chiefs team is the one that got blown out by Buffalo and Detroit, and remember, Charles was healthy for the Buffalo game.

The bye for the Packers meant that we were spared another week of OMG PACKERS BEST TEAM EVAR. (These people apparently only watch when Green Bay is on offense.) However, it also meant that the mass in the AFC spent another week slowly growing together. No AFC team has fewer than two losses; in fact, 11 of the 16 teams have either two or three losses. (Everyone thank Indianapolis and Miami now: they account for 12 of the 51 wins by that group.) The NFC still needs a couple more games between top teams to settle things out a bit, although the Rams, of all teams, suddenly made the NFC South race more interesting. Tampa Bay at New Orleans and the Jets at Buffalo should be two good division matchups to watch; the Giants and New England will be the featured 4:00 matchup, and then NBC will desperately be hoping that the second Pittsburgh-Baltimore game doesn't go the way of the first one (and the last two Sunday night games).

Lions season outlook, week 8

2011-10-25T14:50:00.003-04:00

This time, it was an entire game's worth of struggles. Offensive line is finally proving to be the weak spot it seemed to be coming into the season, and with special teams still performing poorly, there's just too much for the defense to handle even when it's at the top of its game.

Penalties are becoming an issue again. Suh is obviously branded as a dirty player, and unfortunately he seems unaware that perception is at least as important as reality, and the longer this lasts, the less likely it is that there is a difference. (Rodney Harrison, in talking about this, still didn't think he himself was a dirty player. Case in point.)

Back-to-back losses in games where they were favored, substantially in the latter, should have a big impact on projections. Let's see:

Massey projections:
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, underdog (moved down)
Week 11: Carolina, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 12: Green Bay, underdog (moved down)
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog (moved down)
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 15: at Oakland, favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

So yeah, there was some movement. The loss of Jason Campbell pushed the Raiders game to favorite status (63%), but that was about it. This is probably a more accurate reflection of the Lions' strength. Estimated wins are right at 10, which matches the game-by-game projections.

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 9.7, down 0.5
Playoffs: 67.6%, down 13.0 points
Division title: 9.9%, down 11.9 points
Top seed: 2.7%, down 4.5 points
NFC title: 4.5%, down 3.2 points
Super Bowl win: 1.9%, down 1.4 points
15-1 record: off the board

Being two losses back means the division is pretty much gone; yes, the Packers are on the schedule twice, but in neither game is Detroit favored, and does this look like a team that can beat Green Bay? No. The one benefit so far is that the Lions' schedule is turning out to be more difficult than it seemed at first, so that's making the 5-2 record better than it might otherwise be. Having a two-in-three shot at a playoff spot is still pretty good.

So, after falling in consecutive week to teams that weren't playing as well as the Lions but managed to turn it around, Detroit has a game that they simply must win. If you can't beat bad teams, you aren't a playoff team. Fortunately, the Broncos have benched their starting QB and are using a running back in his place. Even if Stafford is not 100%, the Lions should completely shut down TEBOWTEBOWTEBOW and the Denver offense. Lions, 19-8.

Last week: predicted 27-17, actual 16-23

Current mood: disappointed

NFL Week 7: A mess in the NFC

2011-10-25T09:43:00.001-04:00

The Packers continue to win, everyone else in the NFC seems to have 4 wins, and some guy starts in Denver.

This seems to be more like the 2007 Lions than the 1957 Lions. For the second straight week, the Lions turn in a thoroughly unimpressive performance at home. Just 1 for 12 on third downs, Stafford completing less than 50% of his passes, good run defense except for one huge run that set up a scoring play, 10 penalties, including a few that occurred at particularly bad times, bad coverage on special teams, no touchdowns in the red zone ... Detroit looks nothing like the team that blew out Kansas City and knocked off Tampa Bay and Dallas on the road. Sure, maybe San Francisco and Atlanta are both playoff-caliber teams, but the Lions have plenty of games left against those teams, and if they can't straighten out these issues, they're going to finish 7-9 and wonder what might have been.
For their part, the Falcons were not particularly impressive on offensive, but they did enough to get the job done. 7 of 17 on third downs doesn't sound great, but some of those were long conversions at the Lions' expense. Atlanta made some costly mistakes of their own, including throwing an interception deep in Detroit territory and committing a penalty that brought back a kickoff return TD, but they outplayed Detroit on the road and came away with a big win. Neither of these teams are likely to win their divisions, so this could be a key to determining wild-card position, as long as both teams can stay in the race.
TEBOWTEBOWTEBOWTEBOW. You have, I'm sure, already heard how TIM TEBOW led a miraculous comeback to vault the Broncos past the Dolphins in overtime on the road, and how afterward at the press conference, he walked on water. You may not have heard that he completed less than half of his passes for a paltry 161 yards, or that Denver managed a grand total of 0 points in the game's first 57 minutes against a winless team. This was an ugly win, exactly the type of game that fools people into thinking a quarterback is exactly as good as his record. With the Chargers and Raiders struggling, Denver could get back into contention in the West with a solid QB, but Tebow is not that QB. He'll pull out a couple of wins, defensive coordinators will figure out how to stop him, and the Broncos will muddle along in last place, continuing to live out the curse of the McDaniels era.
This game may be the one that costs Tony Sparano his job ... letting a winnable game against a weak team with a young QB get away. Failing to recover an onside kick, giving up a tying two-point conversion by allowing a rushing QB to run, fumbling the ball away in overtime. Converting just 3 of 14 third-down attempts. Averaging just 3 yards per carry. Unlike Denver, Miami is in a division with three playoff-caliber teams, and the difference between the top and the bottom is obvious. There simply isn't enough talent in Miami, especially not with Chad Henne out. The next coach and GM will have to rebuild this roster nearly from scratch ... as for the interim coach, he'll have to push the existing pieces around to squeak out a win or two to salvage some degree of respectability. The Colts have an excuse for being winless, but the Dolphins do not.
Remember when the Chargers were more than happy to have Philip Rivers? This year is not that year. To be fair, the question about the Jets has never been the defense, but still, you have to have the feeling that Rivers simply isn't good enough to win these games. (Then again, he's constantly being asked to work with second-tier wide receivers, and Antonio Gates still isn't 100%.) 16 for 32, two interceptions, under 200 yards passing ... true, the inability to keep Darren Sproles is also a factor, but there's clearly something missing in San Diego. Baltimore and New England are already in full playoff mode, there are a handful of other teams right behind them, and I can't say that the Chargers would be favored to beat any of them in the playoffs.
Mark Sanchez finally found an appropriate receiver to lock onto in the red zone. The Jets continue to rely heavily on the run to take the load off their inaccurate QB (although if you can explain why LaDainian Tomlinson got the start today, I'd love to hear it; his days of being a feature back are long behind him), and it turned out to be just enough against the Chargers. Eventually, Rex Ryan will have to figure out how to make Sanchez into an NFL quarterback; the Jets are easy to beat if you stop the run, and there are a few defenses in each conference equipped to do it.
The Bears picked up an unimpressive win in London to climb back into the playoff hunt, if such a thing can be said in October. It was important for Chicago because you can only lose so many early-season games when the division leader is unbeaten and half of the conference seems to be above .500. Chicago built a nice 21-5 lead, but made enough mistakes to let Tampa Bay pull within three late in the fourth. It seems the Bears haven't yet figured out how to run a Martz offense at its best ... or perhaps Martz hasn't figured out that his ideal offense requires superstars at all skill positions to be effective. (That's code for "it's a gimmick that is no longer viable at this level.") Martz will have to figure out how to run more clock with this offense, which seems odd given that Matt Forte is part of it. The decision not to re-sign him looks dumber and dumber every week: it's clear that the offensive line can't help Cutler carry the offense, and with a lesser RB, those long runs off broken tackles would become short runs.
Tampa Bay is collecting a nice set of losses against playoff-caliber teams (Chicago, Detroit, San Francisco). That's small consolation for Raheem Morris, who has to be thinking that this is going to be yet another season where the Bucs are just short of the playoffs. Josh Freeman is still young and still needs to learn when not to throw the ball ... at least two of his four interceptions were passes into solid coverage. This isn't quite the same as losing at home, but it was still a game Tampa Bay could have won. Fortunately, the Bucs have a bye this week (as is standard for teams returning from London), so Freeman will have an extra week to practice avoiding defenders before meeting the Saints in Week 9.
Soooooo ... the Texans don't miss Andre Johnson and Mario Williams all that much, I guess. Just when it looked like the South was up for grabs with those key injuries, Houston went into Tennessee and crushed the Titans. Schaub was extremely efficient (18 for 23, 2 TDs, no picks), Foster was dangerous on the ground and in the passing game as well (25 carries for 115 yards, 5 receptions for 119 yards, including a 78-yard TD), and Houston allowed Tennessee to convert just 2 of 10 on third down. The Texans' lead is just half a game, but on Sunday, it seemed like so much more.
The Titans have to feel that they're still in the hunt in the South, but the strength in the North and East pretty much ensures that there will not be a wild-card spot available for other teams, so it's either the division or nothing. Tennessee doesn't play Houston again until the final week of the season, which is good: they didn't really stop anything the Texans did, and they couldn't mount any offense of their own. With the NFC South on the schedule, the Titans don't have many easy games left; they have two games with Indianapolis and one with Jacksonville, but the rest will be tough.
All of a sudden, Washington looks like the team we thought they'd be coming into the season and not the team that was alone atop the NFC East. Washington was -3 in turnovers against Carolina, and that made all the difference. Now that Rex Grossman is back to being the usual Florida quarterback in the NFL, Washington's offense looks like a bunch of backups, which is basically what it is: Grossman or Beck at QB, Hightower at RB, a bunch of meh guys at WR ... they're going to have to get some quality performances out of those guys to make a run at a wild-card spot, but I think it's unlikely this team will be able to reproduce their early-season success.
Cam Newton is still doing the same things he did at Auburn: run the ball, throw the ball, run some more, throw some more. Against weaker defenses, it works pretty well, and Washington's defense played the part admirably. Carolina probably needs another year or two to get enough talent to be able to rely less on Newton, which I think is a requirement at this level: QBs who do a lot of running take a lot of shots, and few teams have capable backups, especially teams who picked a QB #1 overall even though they already had a young QB on their roster.
Seattle is a bad team. Charlie Whitehurst completed 40% of his passes and threw for under 100 yards. The Seahawks were just 2 of 12 on third down. They made only one red zone trip and did not get a TD out of it. And yet, the defending division champs are 2-4 and actually beat the Giants on the road. They don't look anywhere near as good as the 49ers and are extremely unlikely to make the playoffs again, but those wins coupled with some bad seasons in other cities have already pushed Seattle well out of range of Andrew Luck, assuming that Pete Carroll realizes that Tarvaris Jackson is just as bad as Minnesota thought he was. Seattle has plenty of holes to fill, so even without a marquee QB in that spot (Russell Wilson, perhaps?), they'll need that pick and then some.
Pittsburgh is finally rolling into midseason form, which is a good thing; the fast starts by the Bills and Ravens made it look like the Steelers might have some difficulty getting back to the Super Bowl, but at 5-2, they're in a pretty good position, and with the NFC West on their schedule, they have a significant advantage over wild-card competitors in other divisions. Roethlisberger had another solid day (people seem to forget that Mike Tomlin likes to throw to build a lead and then run to protect it), the offense kept the ball away from the Cardinals, and the defense did just enough to keep the game out of reach (1 turnover, 2 sacks, and a safety). Up next: New England and Baltimore at home. Better win those games ...
Kevin Kolb is doing what he can in Arizona, but even though he's a substantial upgrade over last year's QB charade, there are too many other flaws on this team to get them more than 3-4 wins, even in the sadness that is the NFC West. Once again, they have no running game, and if Beanie Wells is out for any length of time, "no" may become "absolutely no". Larry Fitzgerald is wasting away, waiting for Kolb to get enough time to find him open or for some other receiver to step up as a legitimate threat. As it is, any DC worth his salt will simply double-cover Fitzgerald and dare the Cardinals to beat him some other way, and Arizona just doesn't have the tools to make that happen.
Don't be fooled by this run: the Chiefs are still a bad team. They beat Minnesota by 5 and Indianapolis by 4; sure, they crushed Oakland in Oakland, but that was with crappy Kyle Boller and rusty Carson Palmer at QB. Matt Cassel had yet another unimpressive outing – he's looking more and more like this generation's Scott Mitchell – and this is not an era where you can win consistently by running the ball, not unless you have a top-5 defense as well, and Kansas City does not have that. (Intercepting bad quarterbacks does not make your defense good; that's an expectation, not a bonus.) Still, this was an important win, and if the Chargers slip up again, Kansas City might be making a run at another division title, unworthy though they might be.
Yes, it was Jason Campbell, wasn't it? OK, maybe not all Campbell, but the contrast between Campbell's performance and the six-interception ugliness that was Oakland quarterbacking on Sunday was about as stark as, well, Peyton Manning vs. Not Peyton Manning. Oakland ran the ball just about as well as they usually do, but with a horrible passing game instead of a solid one, they handed a mediocre Chiefs team an important division victory, one the Raiders may regret if they end up at 8-8 or 9-7 and just miss a tie for the division. Then again, if Palmer can't learn the offense quickly enough (he admitted he knew maybe 10% of it, no surprise given his lack of reps), the division may not be in reach anyway.
The Rams have finished receiving their beatings from the NFC East, and they can't be excited about their next opponent either, not after watching the Saints hang 62 on the Colts on Sunday night. This may be hard to believe, but the Rams are probably worse than the Colts. Sam Bradford is leading yet another desultory passing attack – his ANY/A is a dismal 4.6, right about where it was last year, which should serve as a warning that counting stats frequently don't tell you anything – and St. Louis doesn't have an effective running game, either, as Steven Jackson will no doubt tell you. (I can't imagine what it must be like to be trapped in that offense.) Let's not lump the entire NFC West together again: just like the 49ers are better than the rest, the Rams are significantly worse. Two years after going 0-16, the Lions were 6-10, and they're 5-2 now. Two years after going 1-15, the Rams could well go 0-16.
Dallas doesn't look quite as bad now that their losses are to teams who are 5-1, 5-2, and 4-3, and that win over San Francisco looks better every week. Next week's Sunday night game against Philadelphia should determine whether or not the Cowboys are playoff contenders: the Eagles look like anything but, and a win would push Dallas to 4-3 and keep them perfect in the division, plus it might remind people that Tony Romo is. not. the. problem. (Yes, he makes bad decisions under pressure, but in case you haven't noticed, replacement-level QBs are somewhere between bad and terrible, or maybe you didn't see Carson Palmer in Oakland. This is what the Cowboys have, so they better learn to live with it.)
Green Bay looked unimpressive in holding off Minnesota for their seventh straight win; once again, the defense simply did not get the job done. As much as we'd like to crown the Packers NFC champs for a second consecutive season, they've simply got too many flaws on defense to justify that label at this point, 7-0 record notwithstanding. They allowed 9 of 16 conversions on third downs, gave up a whopping 7 yards per carry on 31 rushes (exactly what a rookie QB needs in his first start), and nearly blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter against a team known for blowing leads themselves. Mike McCarthy can't be happy with that defense. Perhaps playing with fire has finally burned the Packers: they're still getting plenty of interceptions, but giving up plenty of yards when they don't get picks. Green Bay's 7.1 NY/A was tied for 11th-worst in the league going into the Minnesota game. This year, a solid pass defense is a requirement for winning games. Would you bet on the Packers to beat, say, the Ravens, looking at their respective defenses? I wouldn't either.
It's hard to say which spoke more poorly of Donovan McNabb: the fact that he said his benching was a surprise, or the fact that Christian Ponder moved the Vikings well. Minnesota's poor start, coupled with the 5-0 records Detroit and Green Bay posted, immediately pushed the Vikings out of the North picture, and with the number of teams above .500 in the NFC, it's clear they had no chance at a playoff spot, so why not let the kid start? At worst, he'd just be getting NFL-caliber reps, and at best, he'd provide something that McNabb could not (would not?): a mobile QB able to hit his receivers. McNabb was sacked on 9.3% of his dropbacks this season, worse than all but three quarterbacks. Ponder was sacked just twice on 34 dropbacks against Green Bay. The Vikings don't need a Pro Bowl performance at QB, not with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, but they do need someone who can avoid second-and-20 or third-and-15, and Ponder certainly seems to provide that. It's probably too late to salvage anything from this season (Denver is the only game that appears somewhat winnable), but at least their young starter will be better prepared for 2012, when the McNabb experience will be forgotten in Minneapolis.
Guess who was fourth in the league in ANY/A? That's right, Curtis Painter. Yes, this is because some teams don't believe in tackling receivers, and perhaps DYAR is a better judge of Painter, putting him 21st in the league, but still, he's much better than I gave him credit for. Perhaps it was just a matter of getting him reps. (Something for Peyton to keep in mind when he comes back: backups with almost literally no experience are going to struggle much more than those who've actually run some plays in practice.) There isn't much point in dwelling on Sunday night's game: a bad team playing at a good team, a weak defense trying to stop a solid offense ... going into that game, we knew New Orleans was a playoff contender and Indianapolis was helpless without Manning, and today we know the very same things. Colts fans would be wise to avert their eyes for the rest of the season, take their 2-14 record and their high draft pick, and hope that #18 is ready to go in 2012.
New Orleans wanted to get things back on track after their surprising loss at Tampa Bay, a game that threw the NFC South into confusion. They wanted to reestablish themselves as clear favorites in the division and keep pace with San Francisco for the #2 spot in the NFC and a first-round bye. Well, they certainly seemed to do that. Great teams blow out bad teams, and 62-7 certainly qualifies as a blowout. The Saints may have a shot at an NFL record, as they face the hapless Rams this Sunday, but it'll require some work: the record for most points in consecutive games is held by none other than the 1950 Los Angeles Rams, who posted a stunning 135 points in October against the Colts and Lions, winning 70-27 and 65-24. That team was like an extreme version of the best teams this year: great on offense, bad on defense. (They had to win a playoff with the Bears just to get to the NFL Championship, where they lost to the Browns, 30-28. That had to be a frustrating situation for Chicago, as they swept the Rams during the regular season. Needless to say, tiebreakers weren't in place back in those days.)
Monday night's game served as a reminder that Baltimore's offense is just about as good as New England's defense, which is to say that it looks like it'll cost them 2-3 games this season. Having a dominating defense is fine, but you can't expect it to score every game. Jacksonville stopped the Baltimore running game, holding them under 3 Y/C and forcing a fumble, but what was more impressive was holding the passing game to 3.6 Y/A. That isn't going to win any games: by comparison, the worst team in the NFL, the Browns, averages 5.8 Y/A. The Ravens now have two inexplicable losses to AFC South teams; they've beaten the Texans and are all but certain to beat the Colts, but those losses could come back to haunt them, especially if Pittsburgh wins their rematch the week after next. You can't afford to lose games like this in a tough division.
Jacksonville is still a bad team with a putrid offense (2 of 16 on third downs, 4.7 Y/A, a tick over 3 Y/C, just 13 first downs), but sometimes the other team gives you chances to win anyway. Three long-distance field goals may have saved Del Rio's job for another week or two, but make no mistake, this team is a wreck. The passing attack is terrible, the running game is hardly effective, special teams have been mediocre (Monday night notwithstanding) ... the defense cannot make up for all of those shortcomings. It's been four years since the Jaguars were any sort of threat, and there's no sign of any overall improvement this season. The newly-improved defense is more than offset by the horrible offense. Neither McCown nor Gabbert has done anything with the passing game: when the two lowest DVOAs are on your team, it isn't just the QBs, although it's worth pointing out that neither has much of a pedigree (McCown did nothing in the past to indicate he's an NFL-caliber QB, and of course Gabbert is a rookie). Jacksonville fans deserve better than this ... and you have to wonder if the NFL isn't watching this situation carefully. Not even Goodell would try to force an expansion team into the current setup, which means that when Los Angeles asks for a team again, they're going to get an existing team. I know, you're looking at the AFC South and saying "Tennessee, Indianapolis, Houston ... Los Angeles?" My answer to that: St. Louis Rams. They're a much better geographic fit for the South than the NFC West, and honestly, you'd have a much easier time selling that switch than pulling a team out of the AFC West. Those teams have played together for 50 years. (OK, 51. The AFL West in 1960 was the LA Chargers, the Dallas Texans, Oakland and Denver.)

The Packers seem to be a step ahead of everyone else; San Francisco has locked down the NFC West, but the other six divisions are tightly contested. The Colts, Dolphins and Vikings (plus the rest of the NFC West) are planning for next year already, with the Panthers, Broncos and Jaguars right behind them. Andrew Luck may be the next Peyton Manning (or Ryan Leaf), but there's plenty of talent behind him, and some of these GMs have to be looking at a Manti Te'o (would you play another season at Notre Dame?) or a Michael Floyd as a possible solution to this season's problems. (How much easier would it be for Gabbert if he had Floyd to throw to?)

Lions season outlook, week 7

2011-10-18T20:49:00.000-04:00

Once again, first-half struggles followed by ... oh wait, there was no second-half dominance. The Lions defense played fairly well, but failed to contain Frank Gore on two long runs. One led to a touchdown and the other led to a field goal; those two plays were arguably the difference.

On the other hand, Detroit did keep San Francisco in check, and even with those plays, the Lions had two chances to win, thanks in part to conservative playcalling by the 49ers. Stafford was inaccurate on too many plays, and the Lions simply couldn't recover.

Massey projections:
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite (moved down)
Week 8: at Denver, favorite (moved down)
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, tossup (moved down)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

As you might expect, the loss to San Francisco moved a few games down one category, most notably the post-bye game in Chicago. However, the New Orleans game didn't move back into underdog status, partly because the Saints lost as well. It's notable that the game in New Orleans is the hardest remaining home game for the Saints: the Giants game the week before (on Monday night) is 84%, Atlanta is 81%, and Tampa Bay's return visit is 82%. Detroit is 60%.

Detroit's estimated wins, according to Massey, are 11.25. Sorry I missed that last week.

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.2, down 0.6
Playoffs: 80.6%, down 9.3 points
Division title: 21.8%, down 9.7 points
Top seed: 7.2%, down 10.6 points
NFC title: 7.7%, down 4.2 points
Super Bowl win: 3.3%, down 2.2 points
15-1 record: 0.1%, down 0.7 points

Obviously there's a drop across the board, mostly due to the loss (and the subsequent rise in San Francisco's future), but also due to other results in the conference. Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Chicago all jumped at least 10 points in overall playoff chances, so that has to come from somewhere. Green Bay is disappearing into the distance, and another loss prior to Thanksgiving will virtually wrap up the division for the Packers.

This is a must-win game for the Lions (well, most of them are, in playoff terms, because you can't lose ground and you certainly can't lose to a fellow wild-card contender). One home loss is unavoidable now; two of them would be a problem. Atlanta is not impressive, and the Lions must demonstrate it. FO actually likes Atlanta better than Detroit, but I'm not buying it. Lions, 27-17.

Last week: predicted 27-24, actual 19-25

Current mood: concerned

NFL Week 6: The Packers and the rest

2011-10-18T08:49:00.001-04:00

The Colts and Packers are perfect through six games; everyone else seems jumbled somewhere in between. Mike Carey saves the NFL from itself.

The Lions finally ran out of breaks: even though they forced two turnovers and had none themselves, two long runs by Frank Gore set up 10 points Detroit couldn't afford to give up. Stafford completed only 56% of his passes, and the Lions were just 2 of 15 on third downs. Their plan to force Alex Smith to win it for the 49ers did not work at all, and if it hadn't been for a surprise reversal on Nate Burleson's catch in the end zone, they might not even have been close in the fourth quarter. (Related note: at what point does the NFL realize that its ridiculous criteria for end zone catches is a safety issue for receivers? If a catch isn't made until the receiver comes to a complete stop with the ball and poses for at least 10 pictures, he's a legal target, and do we really want defenders trying to separate receiver from ball at a point where the play is instantly over once possession is established, or receivers falling into safety netting or photographers or whatever?)
San Francisco might be a seriously flawed team, but it's only the case on one side of the ball. As long as the defense keeps it close, they should have a chance to win those games. Alex Smith did throw a key touchdown pass, but he completed just over half of his passes, and only a couple for decent gains. If Detroit had added another score to their early 10-0 lead, it's doubtful the 49ers could have come back. You can't build a winning team without a passing game in the NFL; Harbaugh will learn that come playoff time. (The 49ers are a lock; I doubt any other NFL West team will win 5 games.) Penalties might also be a problem. This isn't the kind of offense that can convert 2nd-and-20 or 3rd-and-17 more than once a month, not when you know their best play is a draw to Gore.
Carolina had the chance to make a statement in Atlanta, and the statement was "still a bad team." Cam Newton had a just-a-rookie game for a change, the defense still isn't any good, and there isn't much to suggest that the Panthers have a running game aside from Newton. Granted, you can't fix a 1-15 team in one season, but Newton's performance over the last few weeks may have caused people to forget that. Carolina is still a bad team in a weaker-than-expected division.
Atlanta finally paired a good effort from its defense with a good game from the offense, but then it was Carolina's defense. A team that was supposed to contend for the NFC title is instead sitting at an unimpressive 3-3 and traveling to play a 5-1 Detroit squad that may be as angry on Sunday as their coach was yesterday: it'll be a great chance for the Falcons to prove that they really are contenders, but they'll have to play a better game than they've shown to this point. Right now, Atlanta doesn't seem to be in the same class as New Orleans, and they're not exactly on track for a wild-card spot, not at .500 with some tough games (including both Saints games) coming after their bye.
Curtis Painter is showing that he can complete passes in the Indianapolis offense, which is no mean feat when they can basically put up signs saying "Don't bother stopping the run, we'll stop ourselves", but he hasn't shown that he can get anything other than underneath completions unless a defender is nice enough to play flag football when Pierre Garçon is the receiver. This team isn't good enough to rely on 14-play drives to score touchdowns: Painter has to be able to get the ball downfield. (Easier said than done with the Colts' OL, I suppose.)
Unlike Painter, Andy Dalton did complete some longer passes, but once again, the Bengals are having trouble getting into the end zone. They put up decent yardage totals but scored just two offensive touchdowns, and they were in danger of losing to a bad Indianapolis team prior to Garçon's fumble and Carlos Dunlap's game-clinching return. Cincinnati is making the most of its easy early-season schedule, but two games remain with both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and they will have to learn to score touchdowns if they want to make a serious run at a playoff spot.
Sam Bradford threw a lot of passes, got a lot of yards, and the Rams were soundly beaten again. I think at this point, people have figured out that he wasn't all that ... it's funny how counting stats are so easily overrated when the team is winning, but placed in proper context when the team is losing. (That should tell you something about the average person's ability to understand context.) The easiest non-divisional game St. Louis has left is at Cleveland, so if the Cardinals and Seahawks aren't nice enough to gift-wrap a game, the Rams could well match the 2008 Lions. Would it be worth trading down from #1, knowing that someone will want to select Andrew Luck? Hopefully Rams fans won't have to find out.
With Detroit's loss, Green Bay is alone atop the NFL at 6-0; well, alone in record. It should have already been clear that they were alone in quality. At this point, the Packers look exactly like defending Super Bowl champions that got better as players healed. The Rams actually slowed Green Bay's running game effectively and held the Packers to 4 of 13 on third downs, but the 93-yarder to Jordy Nelson turned a 10-0 game into game over at 17-0 (this Rams team couldn't score 10 on most teams), and after the Rodgers-to-Driver TD, McCarthy could put the offense on cruise. The Packers should have an easy win over Minnesota before their bye; after that, asking when they might lose is probably the same question as asking when they'll rest their starters. Their first post-bye game is at San Diego, so that might be a test, and they have back-to-back road games against the Lions and Giants, but right now, Green Bay looks good enough to beat anyone, anywhere.
Here's the difference between being a rising team and a contender: a Bills team just looking to improve would have considered the Giants loss a good sign, in that they were able to play a decent team on the road and nearly steal a win. This Buffalo team has to be looking at it as a disappointment, given the competition they'll face in the division and for wild-card spots. Perhaps their two long first-quarter touchdowns made the game closer than it should have been, but the Bills were still in a position to win it late in the fourth until Fitzpatrick's second interception gave the Giants a chance to win it themselves. Losses like this could leave the Bills at 9-7 or 10-6 looking in instead of at 10-6 or 11-5 and planning for January road games.
The Giants are lucky they pulled this game out. After their bye, they host the Dolphins, which should make them 5-2, and then we'll find out how good they are: with a six-game stretch against New England, San Francisco, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Green Bay, and Dallas, if New York isn't a playoff-caliber team, their record will reflect it. Four of those six games are on the road, and one of the remaining two is the Green Bay game, so if the Giants do make the playoffs, they'll have earned it.
Blaine Gabbert had another unimpressive day, which gives you an idea of how bad Luke McCown was playing, and also an idea of how difficult it must have been for Jack Del Rio to make that move. (Yes, I'm going to bring this up every week it looks like the Jaguars don't have a good QB.) If it really was a good decision, then it means that Garrard was playing so poorly that Del Rio would rather choose between an untested rookie and a tried-and-failed veteran. Still, the Jaguars deserve credit for keeping this game close. It's a shame they don't have a better quarterback, though, because neither Tennessee nor Houston looks like a solid team, and with a decent offense, Jacksonville could be contending in the division.
The Steelers don't look anything like a contender. Roethlisberger had another unimpressive game; Pittsburgh is lucky that Jacksonville isn't really in a position to win close games, not until Gabbert becomes more accustomed to games at NFL speeds. The Steelers visit Arizona in a game that will look nothing like their Super Bowl matchup, but they then host New England and Baltimore, followed by a game at Cincinnati before their Week 11 bye. Unless Mike Tomlin can figure out how to fix the problems we've seen in the last few weeks, that stretch of games could well put Pittsburgh in a hole that not even a favorable post-bye schedule can help them escape.
The Eagles finally tore up the emperor's new quarterback, revealing Rex Grossman as what we all thought he was, but after building a 20-0 lead, Philadelphia went scoreless the rest of the game. Michael Vick was banged up again and still doesn't look capable of running this offense at maximum efficiency; it's possible that the Redskins are actually a good team, even with the Rex Grossman Experience, and that the second-half performance by the Eagles' offense is excusable, but it's more likely that somehow this collection of five-star free agents is just another mediocre team in the pool of NFC teams described as Not Like Green Bay.
Four of Washington's five games have been close this year, and the exception was the season opener against the Giants. It's hard to say if Shanahan needs to stick with John Beck or if it's worth taking a chance on the Rex Grossman Experience moving forward. Maybe the Eagles' defense was playing as advertised ... but if that's so, then San Francisco and Dallas should expose the same weaknesses we saw Sunday. Is Washington better off getting Beck first-team reps to prepare him for those games? The Carolina game might be a good time for that. (My guess is that Shanahan will start Grossman in Carolina, where he'll put up big numbers, and everything will appear to be fine until the Bills sack him six times and San Francisco intercepts him four times. You can't fake being a good QB, and Grossman isn't one; he's already reverting to form.)
The Browns have the misfortune to be in a surprisingly tough division at a time when a lack of talent and a new coach will probably keep them at the bottom of the division. Colt McCoy may become a decent quarterback; the question is whether he'll have enough time in a single system to become one in Cleveland. Browns fans were very happy to be awarded an expansion franchise when Modell took the original Browns to Baltimore, but there's yet to be any signs that Cleveland 2.0 is anything like the Jim Brown version of 1.0. (As with the Lions, it's understandable that young fans might not realize that Cleveland's not always been like this, whether it was during those days or even the Bernie Kosar days.)
The injury to Jason Campbell may be a worst-case scenario for both Campbell and the Raiders. Oakland really looked like they could give San Diego a run for their money in the West (a necessity, given the depth of the AFC). Without him, though, it'll be tough, especially if he does miss the rest of the season. Kansas City, the bye week, and Denver give whoever his replacement is three weeks to get in sync before the tough part of the schedule: four games against the NFC North plus two games with San Diego. (Miami and Kansas City are thrown in to pad Oakland's win total.) Can Kyle Boller do well enough to keep Oakland competitive? It's not impossible for someone like Carson Palmer to come in cold and pick up the offense, but even if Mike Brown would free up Palmer, and even if the Raiders could afford to give Cincinnati what they need for him, there's no guarantee that he'd be 100% by the Denver game, and a weak performance against the Chiefs could cost the Raiders a shot at the division. When you can't be sure how many wins you'll need to make the playoffs, you have to win games against weaker opponents.
There wasn't really much that Gary Kubiak could take away from the loss at Baltimore. The Texans without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams aren't as good as the Ravens? Well, we knew that. Next week's game will be a better test. The Texans don't necessarily need to win at Tennessee to win the division, but if it's not close, it'll be a sign of a bigger problem. Houston seems something like the AFC equivalent of Detroit: when the passing game is working, they can seem unstoppable, but if you shut down the pass, you shut down the team.
The Ravens have to be looking at that Tennessee game and wondering what might have been. Granted, they've looked good enough outside that game to believe they'll be a playoff team at the very least, and with Pittsburgh's struggle, Baltimore could very well win the North, but they don't have much of a lead on either the Steelers or the Bengals, and it's too easy to stumble once or twice and find yourselves looking up when you should be looking down. The Ravens played a sloppy game (-2 in turnovers, 3 for 11 on third downs) and got away with it because their opponents were missing key players. They may not be so lucky the next time they play poorly.
Tony Romo's play may be far from consistent, but few people have questioned Dallas' defense. Against New England, they did almost everything necessary for a win – 3 sacks, 4 turnovers – but their performance on the final drive wasn't good enough. New England moved 80 yards in 10 plays, getting the ball with 2:31 left, and they faced a third down only once on the drive. Three times, New England got more than 10 yards on first down. Keep in mind that the Patriots had only one timeout left, so any play to the middle of the field would have made it difficult to score. They certainly don't deserve all the blame, and New England's offense is one of the best in the league; it's just a shame that the final drive may be what people remember. If Dallas makes the playoffs, the defense will deserve more credit than they're likely to get.
Well, here we are again. Going into the bye week, the Patriots stand atop the AFC at 5-1, and the loss to Buffalo looks less important (as a potential tiebreaker) each week. New England obviously has defensive issues, but I'll again draw comparisons to the Colts' Super Bowl champs: if your offense is good enough during the season, you only need a solid defense for three weeks, the playoff weeks. The Patriots bent a lot against Dallas but made the Cowboys kick from the red zone twice, and that turned out to make the difference. Buffalo will have to visit Dallas later this season, and the Patriots will host the Giants; obviously this kind of evens out, but right now it seems that the Bills are giving away the advantage they gained from that Week 3 win over New England.
Just when we thought New Orleans was running away with the South, the Bucs brought them right back into the race. Drew Brees will want this game back: any time you're -4 in turnovers, you can bet there are mistakes you made that had an impact on the final result. The fact that Tampa Bay only won by 6 says quite a bit about what the Saints' defense was able to do, and of course losing a road game doesn't hurt as much as losing at home does, but Sean Payton has to be feeling the pain of more than just his sideline collision today. Fortunately, New Orleans gets two of the three remaining winless teams next, St. Louis and Indianapolis, followed by the Bucs' return visit to New Orleans. The Saints are also a Week 11 bye team, and if they beat Tampa Bay and then Atlanta (in Atlanta), they should be 8-2 and safely in command of the South.
Josh Freeman did a good job Sunday against New Orleans, getting Tampa Bay back into the playoff picture. The Bucs' losses to Detroit and San Francisco don't look so bad now that both teams are 5-1, and a win against Chicago would go a long way toward keeping Raheem Morris' team in the hunt, but they'd better win it: after their bye, they have a four-game stretch that is one of the toughest in the NFL, with a home game against Houston among road games at New Orleans, Green Bay, and Tennessee.
Donovan McNabb was actually 19 of 24 against Chicago, believe it or not. Does that make up for turtling in the end zone? Probably not. (You had to see it to believe it: with the blitz coming, McNabb simply ducked down in the end zone, costing Minnesota two points, when all he had to do was lunge forward to set up a couple of runs up the middle and a punt out of the back of the end zone.) That signing had to be one of the worst moves in the offseason: in a division with arguably the best pressure in the NFL, the Vikings sign a guy who is probably the worst combination of old and formerly-mobile and who has bad mechanics to boot (not that he'll admit it), and as a result, he's been sacked 16 times in Minnesota's six games, fifth-worst in the NFL. The Vikings don't need much of a passing game when the run is working as well as it is, but they're not getting anything at all with McNabb at the controls. Christian Ponder looked good enough in mop-up time that you have to wonder if it isn't time to make the switch. McNabb isn't getting any better, and Ponder can use all the reps he can get. (Joe Webb certainly couldn't do any worse, either.)
Hey, look! Jay Cutler isn't the problem! Well, he certainly wasn't a problem on Sunday. The Bears steamrolled Minnesota in every aspect of the game, looking exactly like a team that earned an NFC Championship spot last season. Granted, that may say more about the Vikings than the Bears, but keeping in mind that good teams blow out bad teams and mediocre teams squeak past them, this may be a good sign for Chicago fans ... well, except the ones that have been insanely chanting for Caleb Hanie.
The Dolphins took another unsurprising step toward being the worst team in the AFC. They don't play the Colts, so they'll have to hope for some help from somewhere. Next week might be a challenge, though: the Broncos and TIM TEBOW come to town, and that might be Miami's best hope for a win. They face Kansas City on the road, and other than that, all the teams left on their schedule have shown some fight. The loss of Chad Henne and the reliance on Reggie Bush as a running back have killed what little offense the Dolphins had, and unless they can make a move at the trade deadline today, they'll have to rely on leftovers to fill the gaping holes on that side of the ball.
Mark Sanchez! Knows how to win! I'm sure Gruden said that about 50 times last night. One thing I don't miss about having only over-the-air TV is ignorant statements on MNF. Coming into the game, Miami's pass defense was 31st in DVOA and last in NY/A. Sanchez completed just 56% of his passes and averaged 7.1 NY/A. The Jets punted 8 times against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, in large part because of Sanchez's inability to move the ball in the air: New York called a pass play 10 times on third down. Four passes were incomplete, one was complete but short of the first down, Sanchez was sacked once, one play resulted in a Miami penalty for a first down, and the Jets converted two more for first downs and scored a TD on one. Even giving the Jets credit for the penalty, that's 40% on third downs. Compare that to the Dolphins' previous game against San Diego, where the Chargers called 11 pass plays on third down: San Diego converted four in the air, one from a scramble, and one by a Miami penalty; two more passes were complete but short, and the remaining three were incomplete. 45% doesn't sound much better than 40%, but the first downs came with 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, and 15 yards to go; the Jets' conversions were from 2, 7, 9, and 10. San Diego's median attempt was 9 yards, with seven attempts from 8 yards or more; New York's was 7, with 3 attempts from 8 yards or more. And this is Philip Rivers, who's a competent QB but not in the class of a Rodgers or a Brees. Sanchez simply isn't very good, and there's little evidence to suggest he ever will be ... but people will perpetuate this myth as long as the Jets' defense and special teams win games for the team.

No, no one's eliminated from playoff contention yet, although the Rams are 4.5 games out and the Vikings are 5 games back. There are 15 teams above .500, 8 in the AFC and 7 in the NFC. The only division that looks to be under control right now is (no surprise) the NFC West, where San Francisco has realized that you don't have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun your fellow plodders. (I jest, of course: while the 49ers no doubt benefit from their weak division, their wins over 5-1 Detroit and 4-2 Tampa Bay look pretty good right now: they're a touch behind Baltimore for the best SRS in the NFL.)

Next week, the 49ers and Patriots rest to protect their 5-1 records while the Rams and Colts go on the road to continue their winless seasons. Green Bay visits Minnesota in a game that should vault them to 7-0 (reverse jinx, reverse jinx), while the best matchup of records once again features the Lions, as 5-1 Detroit hosts 3-3 Atlanta. The Falcons' record may need the win more than the Lions, but Detroit needs it for confidence reasons. A legitimate contender does not lose back-to-back home games.

Lions season outlook, week 6

2011-10-12T13:02:00.001-04:00

Yet again, first-half struggles followed by second-half dominance. It's good as long as you can repeat it, but when you can't ...

We start with Massey projections:
Week 6: San Francisco, favorite (moved down)
Week 7: Atlanta, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 8: at Denver, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, favorite (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, slight underdog (moved up)
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

Again, there was a lot of movement this week, with four games moving up and the San Francisco rout moving that game down into "favorite". Note that three of the improvements are road games, including the game at New Orleans, which I think is interesting. Massey has that at 40% for Detroit, most likely a three-point loss.

The Playoff Odds report is below:
Mean wins: 10.8, unchanged
Playoffs: 89.9%, up 5.9 points
Division title: 31.5%, down 3.2 points
Top seed: 17.8%, down 2.5 points
NFC title: 11.9%, down 1.8 points
Super Bowl win: 5.5%, down 0.5 points
15-1 record: 0.8%, up 0.1 points

The playoff movement is a reaction to the win plus losses by possible competitors, while the other movement is due to Green Bay's refusal to look like anything other than a juggernaut. (The 15-1 thing, well, I can't really explain that.)

Massey gives Detroit about a 7-point edge over San Francisco. Vegas shows them as 4- to 4.5-point favorites. I think the Lions will win, but the 49ers are coming off a big win and may be a little tougher to handle than Detroit would like. The team will be prepared for this game; the one to watch is the next, where overconfidence could be an issue. Detroit, 27-24.

Last week: predicted 31-16, actual 24-13.

Current mood: cautiously optimistic

NFL Week 5: Byes begin

2011-10-12T11:21:00.001-04:00

Miami and St. Louis have much-needed weeks off, but lose ground to Indianapolis in the chase for the top pick. Cleveland is at .500 and in dead last in the AFC North. Washington and Baltimore keep their first-place positions, and Tony Romo fails to lead the Cowboys to victory yet again.

Monday Night Football returned to Detroit as this time a national audience got to see the Lions' third consecutive comeback from a halftime deficit. In this case, though, there wasn't much to fear. The defense didn't force any turnovers, but they gave up just one touchdown, and after a third-quarter sequence of Chicago punt, Detroit TD, Chicago punt, Detroit TD, the game was effectively over. The Lions haven't looked as solid in the last three games as they did in the first two, but there's no shame in being the second-best undefeated team in the league. The running game still isn't there, and Stafford has cooled off a bit, but the defense is still solid, and if Nick Fairley can make contributions on the defensive line, the offense may not have to get better.
Jay Cutler did a masterful job of staying alive against the Lions, getting sacked only three times and not turning the ball over once. He's doing the best he can in a horrible situation. Martz doesn't appear capable of making adjustments to his scheme, and Chicago continues to demonstrate that they don't have the personnel (aside from the QB and Forte) to run that kind of offense. Add that to Lovie Smith's questionable decision-making, and it's hard to see the Bears at .500 this season. The Lions have stopped opponents nearly 80% of the time in short-yardage situations, and yet the Bears continue to try to run on them, even though they convert only half of those attempts in general. This offense isn't good enough to afford to throw away possessions; Lovie needs to kick a little more often. (I know, it's odd for a Football Outsiders reader to suggest kicking on fourth and short, but the idea is not that you always go for it, but that you take into account your team's ability as well as the general percentages. If you can't run the ball, don't run in those situations.)
There's no shame in losing at Buffalo these days, but at some point, I think it's OK to question whether or not there's a chance for the Eagles to pull out of this slump. This week's game against Washington could be the nail in the coffin for the over-hyped "Dream Team": a loss would drop Philadelphia 3.5 games behind Washington and give them an 0-2 division record. There are already 11 NFC teams with better records than the Eagles; while the Lions may not continue to lead the pack, they're certainly setting a fast pace, and it's not yet clear that this Eagles team can do better than .500 – a record that wouldn't catch Detroit and might not take the second spot either.
The Bills have a balanced offense, a competent defense, decent special teams, and wins over Oakland, New England, and Philadelphia. The bad news is that they still have to visit the Giants, Jets, Chargers, and Patriots. To win the division, they might have to split those games. If Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to run the offense efficiently, a split might be a worst-case scenario: all four of the teams above have questions in at least one aspect of their play, and the Bills may be able to take advantage of them.
Three weeks ago, the Chiefs looked like the worst team in the league. Now, they look like the worst 2-3 team in the league. Wins over Minnesota and Indianapolis make their record better, but it's hard to get excited about either game. Ripping the depleted Colts secondary should be an expectation, and it's hard to understand how Kansas City can fall behind this team by 17, leaving Pierre Garçon open for two touchdowns a week after Tampa Bay decided it wasn't necessary to cover him. The Chiefs' remaining schedule is fourth-hardest in the NFL, and it's unlikely Todd Haley will be around to complete it.
Curtis Painter finally showed that he might be the right guy to keep Peyton's spot warm, ripping Kansas City for a 99.1% passing DVOA, but again we saw that the problem was not the quarterback position in the first place. The Colts have posted a positive (meaning bad) pass defense DVOA every week this year, and in the last couple of weeks, both halves of the defense played poorly enough that neither game should have been contested. (The Colts did well to lose by only 7 to the Bucs.) Indianapolis fans wishing for Andrew Luck might do well to consider that drafting a young QB only helps if he's eventually going to start: imagine what would have happened if the Packers had caved into QB Redacted's demands: Aaron Rodgers could be part of a title-winning team in another city, just as sixth-round pick Matt Hasselbeck eventually left for Seattle. If Peyton comes back, there's no guarantee he'll be willing to step aside when Luck is ready ... and even if he does, what kind of line will be in place to protect him?
Soooooo ... I guess Kevin Kolb isn't quite ready to turn things around in Arizona? The Cardinals look just as bad as they did last year, if not worse, and with San Francisco off to a good start, it doesn't look as though there will be a chance to steal this division with an 8-8 record. About the only thing the Cardinals can do well is run the ball, and in the Year of the Pass, that doesn't really matter much. I don't know how often teams trade notable players and then both suffer as a result, but I don't think you can say that the Kolb-for-Rodgers-Cromartie trade has helped either Philadelphia or Arizona noticeably.
For one week, at least, Minnesota is not who we thought they were. However, the Vikings are still out of contention in the North, four games back and unlikely to catch anyone, and despite appearances, their first five games have been significantly easier than most other teams' (29th in past schedule strength). Minnesota visits struggling Chicago next week, then plays Green Bay and Carolina before the bye. It's hard to see them at better than 2-6 after those games, and 1-7 seems more likely, with the Panthers game on the road. McNabb continues to be woefully inaccurate (10 for 21 against Arizona, just 56.4% for the season), and it's hard to see the Vikings winning if he isn't able to improve his game.
Seattle's still a bad team, but forcing five turnovers is a good way to steal a win, and if Tarvaris Jackson is out for any length of time, the Seahawks may have a chance to right their ship. Jackson has been just as bad in Seattle as his detractors predicted, and if Charlie Whitehurst's performance in New York wasn't a fluke, Seattle might end up with a mediocre offense to match their run-of-the-mill defense. San Francisco isn't out of reach yet, but they're setting a pace that will likely require more than a 7-9 record for Seattle to repeat as division champions.
The Giants are looking more like a team of smoke and mirrors. With their early-season schedule, easiest in the league, New York should be 5-0; instead, they're 3-2, with losses to surprising Washington and puzzling Seattle. The Giants also have the toughest remaining schedule of any team, with remaining games against six first-place teams (New England, Buffalo, Washington, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay), Tom Coughlin may wish that they hadn't let those early games slip away. It isn't hard to picture this team going 7-9, not when you see that their best win so far is over a Philadelphia team that doesn't look anything like what the media predicted for them.
Tennessee didn't look very good at Pittsburgh, sacking Slow Ben Roethlisberger just once and allowing the Steelers to convert 7 of 12 third-down opportunities. The AFC South is down this year, but that doesn't mean the Titans have enough of a cushion to let winnable games get away from them so quickly. It's one thing to have a pass-heavy attack (which, by the way, I like in Tennessee: it's obvious they couldn't win consistently with a run-oriented game), but it's another to rely on it when you're down 21-3 or 28-3. It's much easier to pass when the other team isn't sure what you'll be doing, and few coaches in the NFL will run the ball much when behind by four scores.
The Steelers needed a win against a decent team, after getting thumped by the Ravens and held to 10 by the Texans. Pittsburgh's played pretty well despite that opening-week result, and they're quietly lurking behind the Ravens in a pack of 3-2 teams across the AFC. With Jacksonville and Arizona next, Pittsburgh should be 5-2 going into a key stretch of games against New England, Baltimore, and Cincinnati: 5-5 may put the Steelers in chase mode, with no chance to win the division and little chance to catch the AFC East runner-up for the top wild-card spot.
New Orleans looks like a less extreme version of New England: not quite as good on offense, not quite as bad on defense. There's every reason to believe they'll be 9-1 coming into their bye week; that would effectively wrap up the South (giving them a sweep of Tampa Bay plus no less than a three-game lead over the Bucs), and then a Giants-Lions-Tennessee sequence that should give Sean Payton an idea of any areas to improve going into the playoffs. It's hard to picture New Orleans not getting a first-round bye, and they'll want to patch up some holes in their game before they welcome the NFC East or West winner ... I'm not sure there would be two wild-card teams capable of knocking off division champions.
Carolina still isn't a very good team, but at least they're not dreadful. Cam Newton has done a fine job of turning around the Panthers' offense; now they just need to fix the defense in the same fashion. Carolina can keep the score close in just about every game right now, but they simply can't get enough stops to win many games. New Orleans was 12 of 17 on third-down conversions, but they only needed two of those on their 13-play, 89-yard game-winning drive. Yes, some of that was probably a prevent-type defense, but that's a problem Carolina has had all season, allowing opponents to convert 43% of their third-down attempts. They've forced only 5 turnovers as well – only Miami, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans have forced fewer. I'm not sure that Newton can continue to keep the Panthers close in these games unless the defense starts to make more plays.
Cincinnati should beat Indianapolis and move to 4-2 going into their bye week, and that's probably better than most Bengals fans would have predicted. As with San Francisco and Detroit, Cincinnati's surprising start has been built on defense. With the unexpected decline of the AFC South, the AFC North suddenly looks like a division of strength, with the NFC West helping to pad their records as they fight for playoff spots. The Bengals won't play Baltimore until November 20, or Pittsburgh until the week before that, so it will be a while before we have an idea of their relative strength in their division, but they could well be in the thick of things when they enter a four-game stretch against AFC North opponents (with Cleveland and the return game with Pittsburgh rounding out that block).
The Jaguars simply aren't any good. They should be 1-7 at the halfway point, and it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect an interim coach to be leading Jacksonville when they return to visit Indianapolis in Week 10. Once again, weather conspired to make things difficult for Blaine Gabbert, but at some point, if he isn't able to produce, Jack Del Rio isn't going to have much to justify his decision to cut Garrard prior to the regular season, even if it is better in the long run to give Gabbert experience. QBs these days don't seem to need as much experience on the sidelines prior to seeing game action; I suspect a good bit of this is the rise of the spread offense in the college game, giving quarterbacks the opportunity to run some of the same plays that they'll run in the pros.
Hue Jackson called for a two-point attempt after an Oakland touchdown in the second quarter. Proof that Al Davis' spirit lives on? Most likely. The Raiders' offense has been surprisingly effective through four games, but it's not nearly as easy to throw for two due to the lack of space the secondary has to cover. It didn't hurt the Raiders, as a kick would have left them with a six-point lead at the end and most likely a loss if the Texans scored a touchdown, but I'm not really a fan of going for two until it's clear that you need to. I just don't think there are that many teams who can take two yards when they need them, and it's too easy to end up "chasing" those points by missing your first two-point attempt and then feeling you have to keep going for two to make up for that miss.
The Texans are about to find out how much they'll miss Mario Williams. Road games against Baltimore and Tennessee will challenge Houston's pass defense, which was pretty good with Williams but may suffer without that outside pass rush threat. Acquiring Derrick Mason may help to make up for Andre Johnson's absence, but it may not be enough, and it would be unfortunate for the Texans to find themselves stuck at 3-4 in a conference where 10 wins may be the cutoff for a playoff spot.
Well, Tampa Bay now has two losses to teams who look pretty good and three wins over teams who don't look that good. In other words, they're perfectly suited for that middle area between contending teams and those already looking forward to the draft. If they can't put together a decent performance against New Orleans, they might as well start looking at wild-card spots, or perhaps "spot", given that Detroit is 5-0 and has a win over the Bucs. New Orleans has a significantly easier schedule than Tampa Bay, so even a split probably isn't enough to give the Bucs hope of a division title.
Just as Tampa Bay's stock is falling, San Francisco's is rising. The NFC West jokes may still apply to the other three teams in the division, and Alex Smith may never be a solid quarterback, but the 49ers' defense is looking better and better each week, and if it weren't for that overtime loss to Dallas, we might be hearing talk about the West practically being locked up. That defense will get tested, though, in a visit to Detroit. A loss may raise questions about San Francisco's playoff hopes; a win would validate them and also give them plenty of momentum heading into their bye.
Speaking of weak West divisions, San Diego might be the worst 4-1 team in football, if not also in recent history. The Chargers couldn't stop New England's passing attack and have yet to play another decent team. Special teams aren't disastrous like last season, but they're not great, and neither the offense nor the defense looks good enough to make a playoff run. The Chargers face a solid defense in the Jets after the bye, then the Chiefs, but after that, Green Bay and Oakland should give San Diego the chance to prove that their defense can make something happen in January.
So TIM TEBOW is now QB AWESOME in Denver, I see. He "led" the Broncos' comeback against San Diego, pulling Denver within 2 despite completing just 4 of 10 passes. Yes, Orton has thrown quite a few interceptions this season, but the passing attack is far from Denver's only problem, and Tebow really hasn't shown the ability to be anything other than Just A Guy at QB; that kind of player isn't going to rescue a team in need of help at so many other positions. (Protip: to position your team to draft high in the first round, hire someone from the Belichick coaching tree. Works nearly every time.) On the other hand, at least it'll help to quiet the fools who are convinced that TIM TEBOW will lead the Broncos to an 18 and -2 record and five Super Bowl wins this year.
At some point, Rex Ryan will have to concede two things. One is that his Jets are never going to win a Super Bowl, and the other is that Mark Sanchez is never going to run a solid NFL offense. This is a guy who's completing 54-57% of his passes in a scaled-down offense in an era where the median percentage is around 61% and 65% only gets you into the top quartile. I'm not trying to suggest that Mark Brunell should start against Miami, but I will say that after that game, the Jets face San Diego, Buffalo, and New England, and after that stretch, there should be no question about the Jets' playoff hopes. (Is this an appropriate time to start questioning USC quarterbacks in general? Carson Palmer had one good season in Cincinnati, but Matt Leinart was an out-and-out flop, Matt Cassel had one decent season in Kansas City so far, and Sanchez has been poor at best – he's lucky that so many defenders dropped sure interceptions of his last year.)
Right now, the only question about New England is whether or not their offense can score enough to make up for the bad games the defense is having. Dallas, Pittsburgh, and both New York teams should provide a reasonable test for Brady and the monstrous Patriot offense, but New England will have to learn from archrival Indianapolis: you can only win a Super Bowl with a bad defense if, at playoff time, it completely forgets it's a bad defense. The Patriots can't afford any missteps, either, not with the Bills keeping pace with them at the top of the AFC East. Good teams do win road games, but no one wants to win three road games to make it to the Super Bowl, and Indianapolis is one of the few cities where "neutral" fans are most certainly going to be rooting against New England ... a Super Bowl appearance would be as close to a true road game as they'd be likely to get.
Green Bay struggled a bit against a weak Atlanta pass defense, which is interesting. The Packers will likely be 10-0 going into their Thanksgiving game with Detroit, which could actually turn out to be a showdown of NFC contenders. The Lions aren't likely to be 10-0 at that point as well, but they'll certainly have a good record, and if the Packers stumble, the Lions could force Aaron Rodgers to throw on the road in the playoffs. (That might not bother Green Bay's offense much, but Detroit's offense would probably prefer indoor home games to outdoor road games.) For now, though, Mike McCarthy's team will focus on knocking off weaker opponents, and that should be no problem with St. Louis and Minnesota up before the Packers' bye week.
The Falcons just don't have it this year. Their losses to Chicago and Tampa Bay look less and less impressive each week, as does their win over Philadelphia, and Seattle is a bad team no matter what the Giants have to say about it. A contending Atlanta team would be 4-1 at this point, looking to keep pace with New Orleans atop the South; this team could end up 2-5, as Carolina is no pushover and playing in Detroit is much less fun for opponents this season than it has been in the past. The offensive line has been unimpressive, the defense isn't getting a good pass rush, the secondary isn't stopping opposing quarterbacks, and Matt Ryan is looking less and less like a quarterback who deserves a real nickname rather than the feeble one he's got and more like Just A Guy. Perhaps, like Miami, the Falcons' turnaround was just a one-season wonder.

We're not yet far enough in to make concrete statements about most teams, but we are starting to see a few teams pull away from the pack, if only for playoff positioning, and a few teams are sinking to the bottom, unlikely to rise. In a couple of weeks, we should be able to eliminate a group of teams from playoff contention and look a little more closely at top teams to see how they might fare in the playoffs.

Lions season outlook, week 5

2011-10-05T13:13:00.003-04:00

Again, a win is good, but struggling initially against a good team is not (assuming Dallas is a good team; if they aren't, this is worse).

First, to updated Massey projections:
Week 5: Chicago, heavy favorite (moved up)
Week 6: San Francisco, heavy favorite
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight favorite (moved up)
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, overwhelming favorite (moved up)
Week 15: at Oakland, slight favorite (moved up)
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 5-1 (86%), then overwhelming favorites. Slight underdogs are down to 2-3 (40%), then underdogs down to 1-3 (25%), then heavy underdogs down to 1-5 (14%), then overwhelming underdogs.

You won't see all the movement that actually happens because I'm not including the actual percentage each time: for that, I encourage you to visit his site. Notice that even with the close win, four games moved, including the Week 10 game flipping to a slight win for Detroit. They are underdogs in only three games now. Expected wins are now 11.8, which is almost a full win better than last week, but still well back of Green Bay. It's fair to say that 8-0 is now an expectation, especially with the next three games being home games in which Detroit is a heavy favorite. Best case is probably still 14-2, worst case is probably 10-6.

Defense adjustments make their first appearance in FO's data. The Playoff Odds report puts the Lions at 10.8 mean wins, up from last week but not by much; an 84% chance of a playoff spot, up 2.2%; 34.7% for a division title, down 4.8%; 20.3% for the #1 seed, down 4%; 13.7% for a Super Bowl appearance, down 3.3%; and 6% for a Super Bowl win, down 1.8%. They are also 0.7% to go 15-1, up 0.1%.

12-4 still seems about right, with a win at Chicago. The Oakland game might not be a loss, but then the Lions have been playing 30 minutes of good football in three of their four games and gotten away with it. At some point, they'll play a team that can play 60 minutes.

The big thing here will be to win the games they are expected to win. That's difficult for a young team, but what I like about this team is that they are not doing cartwheels for being 4-0. They seem to be approaching it like yeah, we're 4-0, we expect to win. A team like that should stay focused against weaker opponents like Chicago and San Francisco.

Massey likes the Lions by about 8.5. Vegas has Detroit between -5 and -6. I like the Lions as well, although I'll probably be in the car for half the game and asleep in my bed for the other half. Detroit, 31-16.

Current mood: hopeful

NFL Week 4: And then there were two ...

2011-10-05T12:53:00.000-04:00

It was the last full week before byes began (remember when teams might have a bye in Week 3?), but some teams didn't get the memo and left early. The Colts probably wish they could have a bye, or at least some healthy players, while the Packers might want to remove the bye from their schedule. (Note: neither team is actually off this week.)

For the second straight week, the Lions completely shut down in the first half; for the second straight week, the Lions mounted an improbable comeback. Two years ago, Detroit's defense had just 9 interceptions. This year, through 4 games, they have 7. Sure, some of those have been on the quarterback in question, but a good number of them have come as a result of pressure. Despite what Cris Collinsworth thinks, you can't simply turtle at halftime, especially not with Stafford and Johnson finding single coverage wherever they need it: you must throw the ball, and you must do it carefully. (Besides, the Lions are once again near the top of the NFL in power run defense – 2nd in power success and 7th in stuffs through 4 weeks – so conservative play calls aren't going to work.)
TonyRomoTonyRomoTonyRomo. I know. But the Cowboys managed no sacks of Stafford (the third Lions opponent to be shut out), and you already know that on the clinching touchdown, the Cowboys had 12 players on the field, and only one was covering Megatron. The problems in Dallas are not just at QB ... and as with other teams, there simply are no comparable options. Do Cowboys fans chanting for change realize that Jon Kitna is 39 years old and has thrown 2 interceptions in 10 passes this season? Romo's making bad decisions, but he is what you have. Better to learn to work with him than to swap him for someone most likely worse.
What goes around comes around: Pittsburgh is being beaten by teams with good defense and running games and James Harrison is sidelined indefinitely after another helmet-to-helmet collision. (While I hesitate to wish ill of anyone, Harrison deserves such an injury more than most, simply from his insistence on breaking rules and endangering fellow NFLPA members. If the union will not stand up for the victims, then it's up to karma to take care of Harrison. I hope he makes a complete physical recovery, but can never play football again.) The Steelers' OL has been savaged by injuries, so Roethlisberger's insistence on holding the ball to make a play is costing them bigtime. Five sacks in 35 dropbacks ... Pittsburgh's overall ASR is 9.3%, but it doesn't all come from the backup linemen. Their QB needs to learn to get rid of the ball more quickly, or else Mike Tomlin will be choosing someone from the Backup Carousel.
One of the NFL's best offenses took a big hit when Andre Johnson went down with a hamstring injury. Schaub has a number of weapons he can use, but he's certainly favored Johnson this year: just over one third of his completions have gone to Johnson. This isn't like the running game, where a good line allows you to use back after back and get solid production; someone's going to have to step up and be the primary threat in the passing game. (Owen Daniels is a solid TE, but Houston needs a WR to carry the load; Daniels can't open up the defense the way Johnson could.)
Carolina might actually have borrowed Auburn's offensive playbook from last year. It remains to be seen how often the Panthers can run the midline read, or variations on it, and keep Cam Newton intact, but if there is a QB in the league built for that kind of offense, it's Newton. The rookie has taken the worst offense in the NFL and boosted it to 9th; unfortunately, the defense is still bad and the special teams are worse. No team can be safely rebuilt in a year (see the Dolphins for proof of that), and of course there's no way to be sure that Newton will be as productive in December as he is now, but Panthers fans must have a great deal more hope now than when they thought their new young starting QB would be Jimmy Clausen. (Dear Notre Dame fans: you were completely wrong.)
Sorry to interrupt the euphoria in Chicago, but Sunday's game is not proof of a revitalized offense. What you saw was Carolina's defense making everything work for the Bears. The one thing the OL does well is block in power situations (100%, actually, tops in the league); 33% of their runs have been stuffed, their ASR is a whopping 10.8%, and Cutler's DYAR is worse than virtually everyone else in the league. The offense isn't very good, the defense isn't very good, and when teams stop kicking to Devin Hester, special teams won't be able to carry the team. Up next for the Bears: Detroit, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and after the bye, Philadelphia, Detroit again, San Diego, and Oakland. Cutler may not survive that run, and even if he does, the Bears will likely have no more illusions about repeating their NFC Championship appearance.
Minnesota isn't really that bad, you know. They just keep giving games away. OK, you're right, I don't believe that either. The Vikings just aren't very good. They can't keep expecting 150+ from Peterson combined with a couple of rainbows from McNabb. The aging Syracuse veteran passed his prime long ago, and we're already seeing signs that perhaps what happened in Washington wasn't all on the Shanahans. Minnesota is already 4 games off the pace in the North, behind not one, but two 4-0 teams, and they have yet to play the Packers. Their playoff hopes are effectively over; the purpose for McNabb's presence is gone. Now is the time to start giving Christian Ponder reps, and if McNabb won't cooperate, then deactivate him and make Joe Webb the backup.
On the other hand, there's no question about how bad Kansas City is. Take a bad team, subtract a top player on both offense and defense, take into account the inexperienced head coach, and you have a recipe for disaster. To make matters worse, the Chiefs face the NFC North and AFC East ... while they've beaten Minnesota and have Miami later in the schedule, crushing losses to the Bills and Lions bode ill for games against New England and Green Bay. I would not expect either Haley or Matt Cassel to be in Kansas City next year. Cassel put up gaudy numbers in one full season in New England, but conventional stats hid what advanced metrics did not: Cassel is Just A Guy, and without the weapons he had in New England, he's really not that good ... and this season, he's been worse. (Two side notes: Scott Pioli will likely be done as well, and isn't it interesting how few people leave New England and have any measure of success?)
The Bills are likely a playoff-caliber team. With that in mind, the loss to Cincinnati will probably turn out to be one they regret down the road. The AFC is not short on playoff contenders, and if the Bills can't win the division (FO has them with a 32.1% chance of pulling that off), they may well be a 10- or 11-win team on the outside looking in. It's unknown whether or not the Bills can continue to survive in Buffalo – once Ralph Wilson dies, the possibility of moving will rear its head again – so it's good to see that the city may get to see one more shot at a Super Bowl win. Of course, to continue down that road, they'll have to survive their three-week trip through the NFC East. Philadelphia, the Giants, and Washington are up next, and while the Bills have arguably been playing better than all of those teams, they may not be able to afford a loss to any of them.
Cincinnati seems like a Dallas-type team, but to a lesser extent: winning games you thought they might lose, losing games you thought they might win. Andy Dalton is surviving his rookie season, Cedric Benson is having a pretty decent year, the defense is better than expected, and Mike Brown hasn't broken anything yet. It's a shame that the iron hand the NFL wields with respect to its marketing isn't used internally as well. How much stronger would the league be if incompetent owners were bought out by the league? (Obviously they'd be paid back by revenue from the sale of the franchise to the new owner.)
No, I didn't think the Titans would be 3-1 at this point, certainly not if Chris Johnson is having a bad season, but then that underlines the point some of us were making about CJ's demands. Unfortunately for them, RBs are fungible in the modern NFL: there's no point in paying a guy $10M if you can get reasonable performance from someone else for $2M. (You can justify a higher salary by looking at the position as requiring hazard pay, but then shouldn't that apply to just about any position?) Maybe one game is the result of a team keying on Johnson at the expense of the passing game, but I doubt that's true for all four opponents thus far. Seattle's offense isn't any good, Tennessee's offense has taken off ... perhaps Matt Hasselbeck was the guy the Vikings should have pursued.
The Redskins are not as good as their record. They barely beat a bad St. Louis team, squeaked past the Cardinals, and blew a game to the Cowboys. Week 1 was the only time they've looked good this season. The Rex Grossman Experience is going to blow up in Shanahan's face (either or both of them). Philadelphia is up next, and the way the Eagles have been playing, this is a game Washington can't afford to lose, not with Carolina, Buffalo, and San Francisco following.
St. Louis is in an unenviable position: they're the favorite for the #1 pick at this point, and yet one of the few teams in the league who should have absolutely no interest in a rookie QB. (Bradford is not nearly what some people think he is – it's amazing how people don't bother to look at number of attempts when evaluating conventional stats – but he's no Jimmy Clausen.) Of course they can trade down, which actually might not be a bad plan no matter where they finish. There are still plenty of holes on this team, and the Rams would do well to follow the Lions' lead and work to fill many of them at once. Offensive line would be a good place to start, especially in a pass-heavy offense. You can't have your QB taking a sack every 10 attempts or so if he's throwing 40 times per game.
It's not Alex Smith. It's the defense, special teams, and a favorable schedule. Seattle, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia, and the Eagles seem less impressive each week. Of course, you don't have to be any good to win the NFC West, and the 49ers may just do that, but they will not be like Seattle last year. The top wild-card team could well be a 12- or 13-win team that will be mindful of 2010, and playing in San Francisco is not like playing in Seattle. The next two games are home against Tampa Bay and at Detroit; those should give us a better idea of how good San Francisco is compared to the teams they might face in the playoffs.
The New Orleans defense still seems to be a little worrying, but the Saints are entering a six-game stretch where the biggest threat is a pair of games against Tampa Bay. Even a split with the Bucs would leave New Orleans at 8-2, in great position for a playoff spot, and a sweep would make them 9-1 with no less than a two-game lead plus the tiebreaker against Tampa Bay. Winning the South may be necessary for a playoff run; with wild-card teams in the NFC also looking good at this point, failure to take the division could mean a road game against the NFC East winner followed by a game at Green Bay ... better to avoid the Packers for as long as possible.
Jacksonville is a bad team with a weak fan base and a head coach blissfully unaware of the importance of the QB position. Perhaps Garrard really did make terrible choices in practice, but clearly McCown has been no better in live games, if not significantly worse, and the Jaguars aren't good enough to provide support for a rookie QB. This franchise was given to Florida thanks to smoke and mirrors, but now that the truth is out (Jacksonville simply can't support an NFL team in the best of times, and these are not the best of times, either for the city or the team), it's hard to see this team as anything but the Los Angeles Not-Jaguars. If the team can play in the Rose Bowl or somewhere similar until the downtown stadium is built, this team is gone, and so is Del Rio. (In fact, he might be gone this season.) And why not? If LA wants to go into debt to give a billionaire a playground, let them.
The Falcons looked bad in their Week 1 loss to Chicago and really haven't looked impressive since; beating the Eagles isn't nearly what it should have been, and when you see the yards and points they gave up to bad offenses (the Bears and Seattle), it's fair to question whether or not this is a playoff team. Matt Ryan is alternating between good seasons and average seasons (I'd blame his stupid nickname, but then he had it after his rookie season), the running game is below par yet again (or about 1/100th of what Madden 11 and Madden 12 think it should be; then again, EA killed any chance of producing realistic sims when they moved to arcade-style play, prizing button-mashing over tactics), and the Falcons have the misfortune to be in a division with two contenders and also playing an NFC division with two contenders (the NFC North). Should Atlanta lose at Detroit, they may find it difficult to get an invitation to the postseason party unless they can drag the Buccaneers back to third, and that will be difficult given their Week 3 loss to Tampa Bay.
The Pete Carroll era peaked with that playoff victory over New Orleans; what's left for Seattle is a sharp decline into the Millen Pit, where double-digit losses and high draft positions await. Carroll has always been an overrated coach: he took a good New England team that Bill Parcells built and made it into a mediocre one; while he revived a sputtering USC program, he did so in a weak conference, and there are questions as to how much of what he did, if any, was legitimate, given that he took off for the NFL as soon as sanctions were threatened; and he's now taken a mediocre Seahawks team, pushed it just enough to steal a weak division title, and replaced a QB who's now putting up solid numbers in Tennessee with a QB who wasn't any good in Minnesota. Seattle might be able to use Andrew Luck, but is there enough help to make him a worthwhile pick, and if not, will Carroll understand this and acquire that help? I'm afraid the answers are no and no.
The pain of the season-opening loss to the Redskins is fading quickly as the Giants have quickly moved to 3-1 (which should be 4-1 with Seattle coming up), but upon closer inspection, there isn't a lot to be excited about. New York has had the easiest schedule through four weeks by quite a bit, and their remaining schedule is the toughest in the league. Miami and Philadelphia at home are the only remaining games after the Seattle game that should pose little threat, and even then, there is the possibility that the Eagles will have worked out their problems by then. Combine that schedule with the strength in the North and South, and the Giants might miss the playoffs if they can't win the division. Their margin of error against Dallas, Washington, and Philadelphia will be quite small.
There are three things we can say about the Cardinals: losing their best defensive player hurt the defense significantly; getting a competent QB hasn't helped the passing game nearly as much as you'd think; playing in the NFC West means that the first two things may not matter. Beanie Wells is running like NCAA investigators are chasing him, and if that's enough to get Arizona past San Francisco twice, they could well be the second 7-9 team to snatch a playoff berth. A win over a struggling Minnesota team would be a good step toward getting back into playoff contention, and with a lot of winnable games on the Cardinals' schedule, they could well be meeting the 49ers around Thanksgiving for the West title.
Hello, Indian- er, New England. The Patriots seem to have borrowed a page from the Colts: build an unstoppable offense and it won't matter if your defense is terrible. The fact that they gave up 24 points to what looks like a bad Miami team is a major cause for concern: losing to Buffalo is, as of yet, not at all something to be ashamed of, but with the Jets, Dallas, and Pittsburgh coming up, if New England can't start playing defense now, they'll have, uh ... few problems with the rest of their schedule. It's actually pretty soft in terms of opposing offenses. The Giants, maybe the Eagles, the Bills again, and a bunch of nothing. So maybe Belichick was right again: if the teams you face generally don't have good offenses, why worry about defense? (The possibility of the Patriots giving up 50 points in a playoff game, though, has to be an enticing thought for the anti-Belichick crowd.)
So hey! Jason Campbell doesn't suck. Actually, he's ... 12th in ANY/A and 10th in DYAR, and the rushing offense is a solid 1st, so maybe Crazy Al did something right by accident. The defense isn't very good, but see Arizona for an explanation of that. Oakland looks to get battered by Houston's offense this week, but they have Cleveland and Kansas City at home prior to the bye, so this should be a 4-3 team heading into November. The Raiders will likely have to win the West to make the playoffs (FO gives them a 1-in-3 shot to win the division, but a 1-in-20 shot to get in as a wild card), so their games against San Diego, including the season finale in Oakland, could make the difference.
So I'm all like "it's not Kyle Orton" and as if to prove my point, the Broncos' defense gets pummeled, but then it's Green Bay's offense, and they do that a lot. Actually, it does look like the Denver offense is struggling, but it's more the offensive line than the QB. The Broncos are dead last in power success (20%), and while they don't get stuffed much, they don't get big gains either. Second-level and open-field yards, strengths of the team prior to Josh McDaniels completely destroying the offense, are now weaknesses. It may take John Fox a couple of years to rebuild the line, and by then, either Orton will be gone (to a city that will appreciate what he can do), or Tebow will be gone (to prove that he really can't be an NFL QB).
Did you know that Aaron Rodgers just set an NFL record that we just made up? Yes he did. (Devin Hester broke a record that people care about. What Rodgers did was just put numbers together in a certain way.) Sure, Rodgers has put up some awesome numbers, but he's played four bottom-half defenses so far (although New Orleans is in the top 16 pass defenses). Atlanta is a little better, but their pass defense isn't as good as the Saints. Rodgers may not face an adequate test until ... Detroit??? (Did I just say that? But it's true: the Lions are 4th in pass defense and 3rd overall.) The Packers are a virtual lock for the playoffs at this point; the only concern is what most teams fear, an injury to their starting QB. Don't forget that last year, the Packers scored 3 points against a Lions' defense much worse than this one ... and unlike Detroit, Green Bay has a backup who has been tested and found wanting.
Tony Sparano has run out of time. It's become obvious that 2008 was a fluke and that the Dolphins simply can't compete week in and week out with the beasts in the East (and that group now includes Buffalo). The Wildcat, like every other formation in NFL history, is no longer new enough to trick any but the worst coordinators, so it relies on talent and execution, neither of which exists in excess in Miami; with Henne out, the Dolphins will be relying on a guy who couldn't wrest the starting job from Jimmy Clausen; and even if Moore can play well, that won't fix the huge problems on defense. This is not a good year to struggle against the pass, and the Dolphins have done that in spades. Fortunately, the AFC East plays the NFC East, so Miami gets the Rex Grossman Experience, a 50/50 shot at Bad Tony, and Mike Kafka (because we all know Vick isn't going to be healthy in December). Unfortunately, Dallas is one of six games Miami has against top-10 passing attacks ... 0-16 is unlikely, but I doubt Miami will win more than 4 games.
In another year, San Diego would be out in front of the West again, looking to cruise to a division title, especially with Kansas City crippled. This season, though, Antonio Gates isn't (and might never be) healthy, the defense isn't great, and while special teams have improved, they simply moved from atrocious to not good. Vincent Jackson is the only receiver doing anything; Mike Tolbert's helped out a bit, but someone has to catch some of the passes that Gates would, and that's not happening yet. The offense will have to score some points while the other units slowly improve ... actually, with Green Bay, Detroit, and Oakland (twice) on the schedule, the defense will have to improve significantly, especially with the Raiders right behind the Chargers. The non-East wild card (if there is one) may be coming from the South this season, so Norv needs to get these things fixed now.
The Jets' offense is terrible. Mark Sanchez, by virtue of playing in New York, is the most overrated QB in football, perhaps even in recent memory. He's incapable of running even a basic offense well, although in his defense, the offensive line hasn't played that well, and the running game is completely nonexistent. Defense and special teams will only get you so far. The Collinsworth remark above came from his comment on Sunday night that the Ravens should stop passing and just run the ball with the lead in the third quarter; if the Jets get a lead like that, even if it were a good idea in general, it wouldn't be feasible for them, because Shonn Greene just can't find any holes, and neither McKnight (hey look, another overrated USC running back!) nor Tomlinson (who is not LT, fools; that man played defense for the Giants) does much better. The Jets will play themselves out of a playoff spot, and once again, Rex Ryan will discover that his bluster cannot hide the glaring weaknesses on his team.
The Ravens need a win against Houston after their bye week. Everything is set up for them to dominate the North: Pittsburgh's done, Cincinnati isn't quite there (and of course Mike Brown could blow things up at any minute anyway), and Cleveland still isn't a threat. However, the Bengals and Steelers are right behind Baltimore, and one unexpected loss could make this a race again, even if the Ravens have quality that the others do not. We know the Jets' defense is good, but the way that the Ravens imploded against it was hard to understand ... Baltimore might match up well with the current New England team, but they might not draw the Patriots in the first round, and they need to learn to move the ball against a good defense.
Looking at the yardage, you might think Curtis Painter did a hell of a job against Tampa Bay, and in all fairness, the Colts did execute two good plays that kept them in the game ... but you have to keep in mind that Garçon's two catches made up more than half their passing yards. Painter was just 13 of 30 for the game, and while he didn't throw an interception, he did take 4 sacks, and he didn't really move the Colts well (4 of 13 on third downs). The offensive line, actually, hasn't been playing that poorly: they're doing pretty well on running plays, and their ASR is bottom-half, but not by much. Attribute a good bit of that to Collins' lack of familiarity with the offense and inability to get rid of the ball, which is something Painter seems to share. The left side of the line, in particular, has done really well on run blocking, so you might see some more stretch plays against Kansas City and Cincinnati to get the safeties to give Painter some room to throw. The Chiefs might be just what the Colts need ... but they do have to play well to beat Kansas City, as Minnesota just found out.
For a change, it's the Bucs' defense that isn't playing well. Josh Freeman is doing a good job with the passing game, special teams are really good ... but wow, Tampa Bay has been lousy against the pass. Two of their next four games are against New Orleans, and then they play Houston, Green Bay, Tennessee, and Carolina, so if Raheem Morris can't get those problems fixed, the Bucs could easily be 6-6 or worse when the stretch is complete.

After four weeks, total and offensive DVOA comprise over half of the variability you'll see in end-of-season DVOA. That doesn't mean that Buffalo, Tennessee, Oakland, and Detroit are all playoff locks, but it does mean that they probably aren't going to go 4-12 ... not this year, anyway.

Lions season outlook, Week 4

2011-09-29T11:14:00.001-04:00

Hard to say how this changes from last week: winning is good, struggling on the road is expected against better teams but a sign of trouble against weaker teams. (Compare with the Tampa Bay game.)

First we look at Massey's predictions:
Week 4: at Dallas, slight favorite
Week 5: Chicago, favorite
Week 6: San Francisco, heavy favorite
Week 7: Atlanta, heavy favorite
Week 8: at Denver, favorite
Week 9: bye
Week 10: at Chicago, slight underdog
Week 11: Carolina, overwhelming favorite
Week 12: Green Bay, slight underdog
Week 13: at New Orleans, underdog
Week 14: Minnesota, heavy favorite
Week 15: at Oakland, tossup
Week 16: San Diego, heavy favorite
Week 17: at Green Bay, heavy underdog

Tossups are 50%; slight favorites are up to 3-2 (60%), then favorites up to 3-1 (75%), then heavy favorites up to 86% (5-1), then overwhelming favorites. Reverse for underdogs.

So you can see Detroit is favored to an extent in the rest of their pre-bye games and underdogs in half of their remaining games. Their Expected Wins are 10.95: this would give them the first wild-card spot (with Green Bay winning the division). It's not unreasonable to suggest that Detroit could be 8-0 at the break; a pessimist would suggest 5-3, losing both road games plus one of Chicago/Atlanta. Overall, best-case is probably 14-2 if everything goes right; a pessimist would say 8-8.

Football Outsiders isn't showing defense-adjusted data this early in the season, but their Playoff Odds report gives Detroit 10.5 mean wins, an 81.8% shot at the playoffs, 39.5% for a division title, 24.3% for the #1 seed, 17.0% for a Super Bowl appearance, and 7.8% for a Super Bowl victory. (Also, interestingly, 0.6% for going 15-1, the second-best chance behind Green Bay.)

The way the Lions are playing, I would lean toward 12-4, with an "upset" win at Chicago and a loss in the tossup at Oakland. I don't think they beat Green Bay either place ... they need to demonstrate that they can play a great game against someone better than the Chiefs first.

Obviously all these pretty much guarantee a playoff spot (with apologies to Braves and Red Sox fans). The issue will be the Green Bay games: lose those and the division title is out of the question, and any Super Bowl hopes will rest on at least one outdoor win. Split, and the Lions could get lucky; sweep, and it's hard to picture the Lions with anything less than a bye. (We know the NFC West winner will be playing in the first round; that leaves the East and South. A Lions team that sweeps the Packers would likely be 13-3 at worst.)

On the other end, the Chicago and Atlanta games are key to a playoff appearance. You have to hold serve. (The San Francisco game, too: you can't lose to "non-contenders".) 5 or 6 wins at the break would have sounded great prior to the season, but the way things are going, that could mean a 9-win season and no playoffs. Atlanta could turn things around (especially with a win in Detroit), Tampa Bay hasn't lost since the Lions game, and the NFC East could always produce two or three 10-win teams.

Current mood: optimistic

NFL Week 3: what?

2011-09-28T11:11:00.002-04:00

Note: nothing that I write has any effect on anything that actually happens. No, I'm not telling you this. I'm telling me this.

Yeah, so ... this happened. We need to know more about the Vikings to understand how much this means, but at worst, erasing a 20-point deficit on the road against a weak opponent is a good thing (although obviously going down 20 is not). If Minnesota is closer to 8-8 than 4-12, it'll look that much better. Yes, it's nice to be 3-0, but I remember 1980 and missing the playoffs. I also remember six straight wins, 12-4 in 1991 and getting clubbed in the NFC Championship, and seven straight wins to squeak into the 1995 playoffs and still lose in the first round. I'd take a playoff game in a heartbeat after the last decade, but the Lions' 3-0 is not like the Packers' 3-0.

Yet.

On to the games:

The Lions finally gave up a sack. Well, five of them, actually. They didn't turn the ball over, though, and they did come back from 20 points down, as you may have heard. Again, you can't project 3-0 into 15-1 or whatever, but 3-0 does mean that .500 ball puts you at 9-10 wins for the season, and that is close to playoff territory. Detroit now has a 1 in 4 chance to get the #1 seed in the NFC and a 7.8% chance to be playing right here in Indy in February. A lot can happen, of course, but woo! The Lions' ANY/A is 8.8, which is in the wow range, and their defense has been solid, second only to Tennessee so far. The Dallas game will be another test, like the Tampa Bay and Minnesota games combined: a tough team on the road in a very noisy environment. If they can pull off that win, they'll be undefeated and on national television for the first time since 1975, when they were 2-0 and lost to Dallas, 36-10. (Side note: in 2009 and 2010, the only four teams not to appear on Monday night were Detroit, St. Louis, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. The Lions' 9-year drought isn't the longest, either: the Bucs went 14 seasons without appearing, 1984-1997.)
The Vikings have some issues, don't they? The passing game is exactly what you'd expect with McNabb at the controls, the defense is slipping (the DL can only do so much), and at some point, teams will stop punting to Sherels. The lack of ability to adjust at halftime has to be a serious concern. Fortunately, Minnesota has a Super Bowl IV rematch coming up with Kansas City. (Uh, the Chiefs won that, so ...) Win that game and the Arizona game the next week, and things might be OK. Even though Kansas City nearly beat San Diego in San Diego, if the Chiefs win at home against the Vikings, especially if it's another blown halftime lead, people may start to wonder when there will be change in Minnesota.
So this Buffalo team is a lot like last year's team, isn't it? I mean, it isn't like there's a rift in time between 1991 and 2011, so that Jim Kelly and James Lofton and Thurman Thomas are actually playing again. (I hope not; while an NFC Championship appearance would be great, a beat-down would not be.) So what changed? Has anything changed? The Bills and Lions have one opponent in common – Kansas City – and that's not inconsequential. New England's pass defense is bad, but Oakland's isn't that bad. The Bills have Cincinnati next, but Philadelphia and the Giants after that. We'll know at the bye how much of this is real.
Is New England copying the Colts for a change? Focus on offense, forget the defense; if they stop the other team, great, but if not, it'll just take one more TD to win. Tom Brady's 625 YAR leads the league by a ton ... again, when defensive adjustments kick in, we'll have an idea as to how good that offense is, but the defense, well ... the return game with the Bills is New Year's Day.
San Francisco, ugh. I guess someone had to win, but ugh. Alex Smith has yet to show that Harbaugh's approach has been any more effective than all those before who tried and failed to make him an NFL-caliber QB. Take away those two return TDs in Week 1 and people are calling for Smith's head, but now they're leading the worst division in football.
How much of a difference can Andy Dalton make? I mean, Mike Brown still runs the team, right? The Bengals' defense does deserve some credit, though, and with Jacksonville and Indianapolis up on the schedule after the Bills' loss (you really think they'll stand a chance?), Cincinnati could be a respectable 3-3.
Apparently Jason Taylor said that Chad Henne is more talented than Mark Sanchez. (This is a surprise? Well, either: that Taylor said it or that he believes it.) The problem in Miami is primarily with respect to talent evaluation. I mean, Reggie Bush was rarely productive in New Orleans' offense ... so the Dolphins sign him ostensibly as a primary RB. Ha ha. Even so, the problem is more on the other side of the ball: it is a terrible time to have a weak pass defense (as this year's Chiefs and the Lions of 2008 and 2009 will tell you), and with Buffalo's resurgence, the Dolphins may end up buried in the East.
Cleveland has done just enough to win their last two games, but unlike Detroit and Buffalo, they don't have a quality win, and that loss to Cincinnati isn't getting any better. Still, the AFC North plays the NFC West and the AFC South this year, so Cleveland has a pretty favorable schedule coming up. If they can hold off Tennessee at home, they could look like a contender by December. Unfortunately, four of their last five are against Baltimore and Pittsburgh ... they could easily fall from 7-4 to 7-9.
Repeat after me: Kyle Orton is not the problem. For some reason, people think there are 50 NFL-caliber starting QBs around somewhere, and if their team would just drop the current loser and pick up a good one, everything would be fine. Almost without exception, these people are watching teams that have significant problems at other positions. Changing the QB does not make the pass defense better. (However, if you'd like to give Tim Tebow the start in week 8 against Detroit, that would be fine with me.)
The loss of Kenny Britt will hurt the Titans' offense, especially now that Chris Johnson is continuing his 2010 ways (whether it's defenses keying on him, the predictable letdown after a huge season, or both, only fools and Mrs. Johnson believe he's going to repeat 2009), but defense can make up for a lot of shortcomings. The Titans will still have to throw the ball effectively, though. Can Hasselbeck run the offense well when he's missing his best weapon? He'd better. If you thought defenses keyed on the run against Tennessee before ...
So the line on the Texans was that their offense would continue to roll and the defense would improve just enough to give them a shot at the playoffs. Instead of being neck-and-neck with the Colts, though (see what I did there?), they may end up holding off the Titans for the division. The defense has been pretty good, and their loss to New Orleans is understandable for a team with defensive issues. Baltimore and Oakland figure to test the defense as well, but it's hard to point out any other team on the schedule, even Pittsburgh, as a team that can push them similarly. Houston may end up in a really good position if they can split with or sweep the Titans.
New Orleans has faced Green Bay and Houston already, so of course the defense looks bad. But after Jacksonville, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Tampa Bay again, and Atlanta, the very same defense will suddenly look pretty good. In reality, of course, it'll be in between. The December 4 game against Detroit could be very interesting: the Saints should be locking up the division by then, and Detroit might be playing meaningful games in December for the first time since 2000 ... when the Lions opened the season with a 14-10 win in New Orleans.
Those key injuries on defense are really holding the Giants back, aren't they? Never mind the Arizona and Seattle games coming up: New York will be tested when the Bills come to town. Losing Steve Smith to the Eagles has hurt the passing game, but as long as the running game can be a strong complement to Eli, the Giants should have a good shot at the playoffs. If Manning struggles, though, running yards will be harder to get, and we may finally see the impact of those early-season injuries.
It's amazing to me that in a sport with 53-man rosters, people assume that you can sign 5-10 guys and suddenly become so dominant that playing the games is an afterthought. Never mind that the Eagles are trying to make Vick a pocket passer; their acquisitions didn't really fix some of the problems Philadelphia has had for years, and those problems are already being exposed. No power running game means no easy TDs in the red zone, and Reid's reluctance to let Vick roll out means no option plays ... so why go for it on fourth down? Clock management is still an issue, play selection is still an issue ... and of course you can always call plays to take advantage of the Eagles' aggressive defense. In two weeks, the Eagles visit Buffalo, and that could be a challenge. It's not really a make-or-break game, though. With both Chicago and Atlanta struggling, and with the NFC West as bad as ever, the playoff picture is still pretty favorable, so there is still time to get this collection of FA talent to the postseason.
You can't blame Blaine Gabbert for anything that happened Sunday, because those conditions give you nothing to work with, but the Jaguars' offense is still pretty wretched. We'll never know exactly how bad David Garrard was in practice, nor if there were other issues that led to his release, but it's hard to see the value in releasing the veteran and assuming that Luke McCown would somehow be ready to run the team. Jacksonville got an NFL team based on smoke and mirrors, and it seems that's all that's left of the Jaguars. I don't see Del Rio around much longer, and I'm not sure the franchise can last much longer. It'll either move or fold; it's just not possible for that city to sustain a team.
Cam Newton's doing a pretty good job in Carolina so far, which is to say much better than some people (including me) thought he would do. His completion percentage is pretty low, but then he had 34 attempts in that Jacksonville game. Carolina's ANY/A is 7.3, which is middle-of-the-pack and thus a huge step up from last season. (2.9!!! Then again, that's Jacksonville's current ANY/A, and the league as a whole is up about 0.8 yards/attempt so far this season.) The Panthers should surely be better than last season, but their last 7 games could be brutal: they include games at Detroit, Houston, and New Orleans, plus a home game with Atlanta and both of their games with Tampa Bay.
Speaking of overrated players from USC, it'd be something if the Jets had a good QB, wouldn't it? FO pointed out that Sanchez had excellent luck avoiding interceptions last season (15 dropped interceptions, most in the league), and even so, the Jets' ANY/A was 5.4, behind teams like the 49ers and Lions. His completion percentage was 54.8%, worse than everyone except Carolina and Arizona, teams that frankly didn't have a QB then and did something specific in the offseason to fix it. Sanchez is that something in New York, or at least he's supposed to be. If you look at his similarity scores, you see some good possibilities (young Brees, young Elway, young Eli) and some horrifying ones (Tony Banks, Chris Miller, Dave Brown). The Jets' defense is going to have to be outstanding this season to overcome all of Sanchez' flaws, or else he's going to have to suddenly become Drew Brees Jr.
Hey, it might not have been Jason Campbell in Washington after all! Don't tell Al Davis (no, I mean that literally – don't), but the Raiders are on a roll. Sure, they lost to Buffalo, but look at the Bills now! Ignore that the Raiders face the AFC East and NFC North; focus on their productive running game. Once we figure out how good the Jets are, we can get a better idea of how much Oakland has improved in the air; we're past the point where you can build a team with only a ground game, so they'll have to complement McFadden and company with some good passing.
I don't know which is the real Ravens team, the one that whacked Pittsburgh and St. Louis or the one that stumbled against Tennessee. Baltimore does have three more games against the NFC West, but then that doesn't help them within the division, and the loss to Tennessee could be a problem if the Steelers beat the Titans later this season. Baltimore should hammer the Jets this week, but wait until after the bye: if they can handle Matt Schaub and the Texans, then ignore Week 2 as an anomaly.
St. Louis has to be in the worst position you can imagine. They've got a good shot at picking #1 again next year, and there's no way they can draft Andrew Luck. (There should, at least, be some takers if they want to trade down. No way were people trading into the top spot prior to the new CBA.) With no Amendola, no healthy Jackson, and no improvement on defense, the Rams look to sink to the bottom of a bad division yet again.
Kansas City needed that win against the Chargers. They aren't going to get many opportunities this season. The Chiefs' defense may not be as bad as it looks, even without Eric Berry, because Buffalo and Detroit may just have improved that much. With Minnesota and Indianapolis up next, we'll learn for sure: if the Chiefs can't stop those teams, they won't be able to stop anyone.
The Packers are another team in the Indianapolis mold: the offense can outscore most teams, but if they run into problems, it could get ugly. Green Bay gets a break by not facing Detroit until Thanksgiving, so they may see Shaun Hill instead of Stafford. (Of course, it was Drew Stanton who led the Lions past the Packers in Detroit last season, so maybe it's Rodgers who's the key.) The pass defense is 22nd in VOA, and I doubt either Carolina or Chicago is going to improve it that much. (Obviously the Saints can still move the ball.) Still, a healthy team could do some damage that last year's team couldn't during the regular season, and obviously we know how the playoffs went.
Chicago's offensive line is 30th in Adjusted Sack Rate, 32nd in Adjusted Line Yards and in percentage of plays stuffed at or behind the line. In their next six games, they play Detroit twice and Minnesota and Philadelphia once each. All are in the top 10 in ASR and Stuffed %, and their division opponents are also top 10 in ALY. If the Bears don't change some things quickly, Cutler isn't going to finish the season, and then the insane people asking for Caleb Hanie will get their wish in spades.
I don't have much to say about Arizona or Seattle. Kolb has been a great improvement, but then QB Cardinals was terrible last season. Seattle's upset of New Orleans may be a franchise highlight for years; Pete Carroll may wish that would be his legacy rather than what is happening in Seattle. (Tarvaris Jackson?)
So Matt Ryan has been regressing since his rookie season, from 7.0 ANY/A in 2008 to 5.0 so far this season. This wouldn't be a big deal, except that Atlanta is in the toughest division in the NFC, the East is still 2-3 teams deep, and Detroit's resurgence is making up for Chicago and Minnesota sinking. There is no guarantee that there will be a wild-card spot for the team that doesn't win the South, and the Falcons have yet to show that they can. The win over Philadelphia was big, and this was possibly a tough opening stretch (if the Bears really are contenders), but the loss at Chicago looks worse now that the Bears have done poorly against Green Bay and New Orleans.
As for the Bucs, well, they should be 4-1 going into their Week 6 game against New Orleans. That opening loss to Detroit looks better every week, and the win at Minnesota may prove to be big if Tampa Bay continues to hang with the Saints and Falcons. Josh Freeman is completing a lot of passes (nearly 70%), but not really getting anywhere with them. At some point, he's going to have to be able to move the team quickly downfield when the Bucs aren't trailing.
Pittsburgh is probably the second-least impressive team in the NFL behind San Francisco. They nearly lost to a Colts team that has just a defensive line, and the one quality team they played beat them to a pulp. They have injuries beyond injuries on the offensive line, and that's something no team can cope with. You can't just grab an OL via waivers or free agency or whatever like you can a WR or a RB, so as the Steelers finish their four-week tour of the AFC South, they may lose a game or two strictly because of those injuries. Really, though, aside from that Houston game, they have New England and Baltimore back-to-back, and that's really it. Pittsburgh could win 11-12 games and still be struggling.
Yeah, Kerry Collins hasn't picked up where Peyton left off, but he was just getting to the point where he was starting to feel comfortable in the Colts' offense. Remember, Peyton struggled when he returned from knee surgery, and he practically designed this offense. The idea that the Colts could pick up some other QB and do better is absurd. If this were a simpler offense, then maybe they could get QB-off-the-street, but really, can you say with a straight face that David Garrard would do better than Collins? He was cut for being unable to run Jacksonville's offense against the Jaguars' defense. (Of course, the Colts may have to sign someone anyway if Collins has post-concussion symptoms.) The Colts' defense has done a great job holding on as best they could, and the OL has done a surprisingly good job, but the special teams have been terrible. What the Colts really needed was for Polian to draft someone other than Curtis Painter, someone who showed NFL potential in college. The guy who's watched the offense for years is the guy who should be able to step in and run it. I think Jim Sorgi gave Colts fans that feeling; Painter only does because he isn't the guy under center right now. (Indianapolis, welcome back to the NFL. This is a quarterback controversy.)
Hmm, maybe Rex Grossman wasn't the answer after all. Washington's 2-1, sure, and the win over the Giants was big, but they nearly lost to Arizona, and it doesn't look like they ever moved the ball consistently against Dallas. If the offense struggles, the defense will eventually give way. (Insert DeAngelo Hall joke here.) Worse yet, Dan Snyder will wake up and remember that he likes to meddle in things he doesn't understand.
Tony Romo is not the problem. He looks like the problem because his mistakes come at bad times, but he also makes great plays, and anyway, the alternative is not a QB similar to Romo but without the mistakes, but a 39-year-old guy who has had a higher interception percentage and sack rate and a lower ANY/A than Romo in the same offense. The Cowboys need some kind of production from their backs so that Romo isn't having to pull miracles out of a hat, and they need better performance on special teams. They have an interesting matchup in Detroit: if the Cowboys lose this one at home, expect the calls for a change at QB to increase in volume, no matter how silly it would be.

Remember, you can't extrapolate, but you do get credit for performance. Throwing for 1000 yards doesn't mean you'll throw for 5333, but starting off 0-3 does mean you'll have to improve a lot to get to .500, and starting off 3-0 means you're that much closer to a playoff spot.

Thoughts on Week 2 in the NFL

2011-09-19T12:01:00.000-04:00

Good teams blow out bad teams; average teams struggle against them. 48-3, whether or not tampering charges were motivation, is a blowout. Last year, the Lions crushed St. Louis, 44-6, and then won just one of their next seven games. True, that included close losses to the Jets, Bears, and Bills, but the point is that last year's team lost those games. This year's team beat the Bucs in a close game.
Speaking of "teams that look really good because they crushed the Chiefs", let's hold off on Ralph Wilson Memorial Super Bowl Appearance talk for now, and not because Ralph Wilson isn't actually dead yet. (He's no Al Davis.) Buffalo gave up 35 or 41 points to Oakland, depending on who you think caught Campbell's Hail Mary. Again, it's better than starting 0-2, but you still have to beat good teams to be a good team yourself.
If someone could explain how the Ravens gave up more than 350 yards to Matt Hasselbeck in a game they lost, i.e. not in garbage time, I'd like to hear it. Is their defense only going to play during odd weeks? Only against division opponents? And the offense ... Ray Rice can't do it all, people.
Is it too soon to start the "Donovan McNabb is done" talk? What's that? Yes, people have been saying it, but until last year, there was no real proof: his average net yards per attempt dipped last year, but that could just as well be because it was Washington's offense (insert Kyle Shanahan joke here). Well, [QB Redacted]'s ANY/A was actually worse last year than McNabb's was in Washington, 4.7 vs. 5.3. McNabb's dismal performance in Week 1 isn't likely to recur, but then the Vikings' '70s-era offense only wants a caretaker performance out of him this season, and that looks like it'll be enough to keep Minnesota under .500.
JAY CUTLER IS NOT THE PROBLEM. The problem is that the offensive line sucks. Yes, a QB can contribute – compare Peyton Manning to Kerry Collins – but the Bears know what kind of QB Cutler is, and yet they still have a Martzian offensive line. Obviously two-week stats don't extrapolate perfectly to a full season, but even at half of the current rate through the rest of the season, Cutler would be sacked 55 times, and the Bears have yet to play Green Bay and Detroit. Martz' decision to ignore TEs when the Bears had perfectly good TEs and weak WRs will prove to be a disastrous one, and Cutler will be the scapegoat. This Lions fan thanks the Bears fans who will make this happen.
Mark Sanchez is taking over [QB Redacted]'s spot as the most overrated QB in the NFL. Football Outsiders pointed out how Sanchez had a lot of luck with dropped interceptions, and yet his ANY/A was still a weak 5.4 last season. He looked better against Jacksonville (I accidentally typed Hacksonville at first; maybe I should have left it), but then that's kind of like beating Kansas City: it's an expectation, not a sign of improvement.
I think I just saw the Pete Carroll bandwagon rolling past. Looked pretty empty. I'd say it's NCAA karma, but then that organization is going to blow up in about five years (there is pending litigation on several fronts that the NCAA can't stop). Anyway, while the Seahawks deserve full credit for knocking off New Orleans, this is clearly not the same team. The decision to let Hasselbeck go is reasonable, but Tarvaris Jackson is not the answer.
I don't believe that the Shanahans have magically transformed Rex Grossman into an NFL quarterback, not yet. I do believe that the NFC West is actually worse this season than it was last season. Bill Simmons isn't convinced that the division will be won with more than six wins. I'm not either. I have a friend who's a huge Seahawks fan, and there's no truth to the rumor that his wife has removed all sharp objects from the house.
Is it time to start asking questions about the Packers' pass defense? Drew Brees, sure, especially when trailing, but Cam Newton? I mean, Steve Smith is still good, right? 156 receiving yards? (Calvin Johnson is looking forward to those games, right?) And no, Newton isn't the next Peyton Manning. He's just a rookie who's been asked to throw the ball a lot. Kind of like Sam Bradford. So maybe he's the next Sam Bradford.
I see Tony Romo cost the Cowboys another win ... wait, what? Someone probably needs to explain to Jim Harbaugh that he's not coaching in the Pac-12* any more: take the points off the board, run more clock, and kick a shorter field goal.
I think the Broncos ought to start Tim Tebow the rest of the season. That would show those fans. I mean, usually the starting QB actually has to struggle before they call for his head ... the Broncos will be raiding the waiver wire for WRs, and yet it'll be at Orton's feet when they lose. (Make sure Tebow's starting when Detroit comes to town, k?)
So I guess the Texans' defense is just fine, but what's wrong with the offense? 23 points against Miami? Just kidding. Beating non-contending teams is a requirement. Thrashing Indy was a good sign; struggling at Miami was OK, but not quite what Gary Kubiak needs to see. If Houston is making a run at the playoffs, they need to put these games out of reach.
Tom Brady blah blah high-powered Patriots offense blah blah. The injury to Mesko would be notable on most teams, but Belichick is one of the few coaches who can make decisions purely based on value and not on risk avoidance. If he had to go for it more often on fourth down, you wouldn't even notice. (It's interesting, though, how the Belichick coaching tree is quickly pruned everywhere else it goes. Coordinators, not bad: head coaches, terrible.)
If the league wants to get serious about head shots, Dunta Robinson will sit for eight games. He won't, mostly because the NFLPA has no balls when it comes to protecting their own. I've never understood why players' unions always protect the dirty players. Aren't the victims also union members? If you want to change behavior, you penalize it more and more heavily until it changes. Obviously guys like Robinson and James Harrison don't care that they're taking 20-30 years off their own lives, but they have no right to do that to their opponents. (If Mike Smith really teaches it that way, then suspend him for eight games as well. If he's just sticking up for his player in the press, well, everyone has the right to an attorney.)
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Jeremy Maclin has post-concussion syndrome and is later quoted as saying he barely remembers the last half of Sunday night's game. That was an easy pass to catch – this Kafka kid, he can throw the ball, and I think the Eagles' offense resembles what he ran at Northwestern enough for him to fill in adequately if needed – and Maclin simply couldn't bring it in.
The Giants are in a no-win situation tonight. Their defense is banged up, Hakeem Nicks might not play, and yet if they beat the Rams, it really won't show anything at all. If they lose to a St. Louis team without Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola, it'll say something, and Tom Coughlin won't want to hear it.

Remember, you can't win anything in Week 2, but you sure can lose it. (No, really. Two weeks don't extrapolate to sixteen, but a difference of two poorly-played games can turn a good season into a non-playoff season.) The Lions are second in the NFL in points scored and also in points allowed (even with the Monday night game not having been played), and Stafford has not been sacked in two games: Detroit is the only team to allow no sacks so far. None of that will be true at the end ... but if the offensive line continues to protect the 2009 #1 pick, football in January might be worth watching in Detroit.

* Hey, they only had 12 as of this post. It's not my fault.

Cats and storms

2011-08-07T16:01:00.000-04:00

(It's Sunday, and a storm is rolling in. It's dark outside, and we can hear thunder every few minutes or so. I am standing up playing Rock Band 3; Calle is sitting on the sectional. Josie comes around the couch, low-walking to where I am.)

J: OMG DO SOMETHING BIG LOUD NOISES OMG WERE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!
C: We're not going to die. Stop being such a baby.
J: CANT YOU HEAR THE LOUD NOISES? OMG OMG OMG ...
C: It's rained like this before. Now shut up. He's about to play Roundabout, and I like that song.
J: You don't care because you're old!
C: I don't care because I kicked cancer's ass. WTF is a storm going to do to me? Now go and hide under the bed. We all know you're going there anyway.
J: AM NOT. (Runs off to hide under the bed.)

Don't try this at home

2011-07-14T21:44:00.000-04:00

So, the weekend before last, I was feeding cats for some friends. They don't live that far away, so I figured I'd ride up and take care of it rather than driving. It wasn't a bad ride – 5.5 miles round-trip, which is about 8.8 km for you metric folks – and on Saturday, I did it pretty quickly, as I may have mentioned before.

On Sunday, I made the outbound trip at 15.3 mph, which is about 0.8c on a hybrid. On the inbound trip, I met a snake.

Well, it wasn't really a snake, but it hissed, and there is never a good time to hear a hissing sound. I pulled onto the grass, hearing the hissing sound the entire time, and as I stopped, I also felt a hot breeze from behind me ... no doubt about it, it was a flat tire. I spun the wheel, found the offending object, and removed it. There was no point in digging up the patch kit because I had no pump; I couldn't remember if my friends had one in their garage, so on foot, I continued the journey.

Anyway, blah blah blah, I get home, leave the bike in the garage, and make a note to change the tube. Today was my next ride, so I headed out early to see if I could manage it. I figured that 20 minutes would be enough time ...

It turns out that a) it's extremely easy to remove a tube from a tire when it's completely flat. In fact, it's easy to remove a tire from a wheel when the tube is completely flat, or at least it's easy to remove my tire. I didn't need tools at all. The wheel is a quick-release wheel, so I popped it out, worked it out from the chain, put the new tube in, tried to air it up, lined up the valve better, aired up it for real, and that was that. Five minutes, tops. It'll never be that easy again.

So we went on our usual Thursday ride, except we went through Fort Ben instead of to the market. This was unfortunate, as it meant no mid-ride snack, and of course I had planned to eat at the market. Whoops.

As you can see, it was a slightly different path.

View 7/14 CIBA ride in a larger map

There were some more hills, but that was good: I needed the practice. I felt a little weaker without that extra energy, but it was a good ride, and we pushed hard at the end. 20.49 miles, 13.36 mph ... not bad for having ridden only 8 miles in two weeks.

Google "plus"

2011-07-13T23:56:00.000-04:00

I wasted about five minutes today trying to figure out how to tell Google that its phishing sensor is messed up yet again. Of course, there's no option to contact Google, because they don't believe in providing customer support.

See, I'm on this mailing list, and messages to the list, as you might expect, are a) sent to everyone on the list and b) indicated as coming from that person to the list. But because a reply goes to the list, Gmail says OH NOES, PHISHING. Every time.

There is, of course, no longer a way to report the message as "not phishing", because too many people were pointing out that Google's filter was too aggressive. So every time I get a message from the list, Google puts a band across it that says "This message may not have come from relative@example.com." Really? You're a genius. I know it didn't come from them.

And that, my friends, is just one reason why I do not intend to fall for Google "plus". Other reasons are that I don't trust Google to keep my various services separate when I want them separate, and as far as I'm concerned, Google+ is just Facebook, except Google had a history of ignoring privacy concerns way before they got into this, whereas Facebook didn't expose themselves as wanting to sell every detail of your life to advertisers until after the site had been up for a while.

Riding here, there, and everywhere

2011-07-02T12:12:00.000-04:00

figuratively speaking. That sounds much better than "I was lazy and then I got a cold or something and now I'm catching up."

So: the 23rd, we did the usual ride-to-the-market-and-back at a faster clip, 12.8 mph for 17.7 miles. Now, I did stop after the hill climb to let others catch up, so that could affect my overall speed a bit, but I doubt it'd be 0.5 mph.

The 25th was the N.I.T.E. Ride, a nighttime ride through downtown Indianapolis. Last year, this was the first organized ride I'd done, and it was pretty impressive: the sight of hundreds and hundreds of bikes streaming out of the area around the Velodrome and up the hill on Cold Spring was cool to see. We also did the Dinner Ride beforehand – a similar-length trip that circles through Broad Ripple so that you can stop and eat.

This year, the N.I.T.E. Ride started at IUPUI's Carroll Stadium (not inside, silly, it's not paved like the Brickyard), so the route was a bit different. 17.9 miles, about 11.2 mph, but we weren't really trying to go that fast anyway. It's a good thing, too, because our route took us along St. Clair, which has a stoplight approximately every 40 feet, and none of them are in your favor. (On the other hand, we didn't have to feel guilty about the car that couldn't pass us. It's not like they would have been going through multiple lights either.)

View Dinner Ride 2011 in a larger map

We went to Union Jack's for dinner; they have a decent-sized bike rack in the back, and we were able to lock pretty much everyone's bikes. (NOTE: Always take your lock. You never know when you're going to want to stop and leave your bike somewhere. I was surprised at the number of people in our group who had locks and didn't take them ... of course, it's easier to say this with a hybrid. I have plenty of space to loop mine around my head tube and keep it out of the way.) After a nice meal, we headed back to IUPUI to sit, watch people, and wait. Little did we know that that would be a recurring theme ...

If you've never been to something like Race for the Cure or the Mini, you have no idea what it's like to see a street filled with people waiting to start. I have, so wisely (I thought), I supported waiting in our comfy chairs in the parking lot for the bulk of the riders to get underway, and then we could swing to the back and join them. We didn't quite wait for the pack to move, and that was a problem.

The ride was supposed to begin about 11; because it was late and dark, we couldn't quite tell where the front of the group was, only that the blinking lights (you did remember your taillight, right? good rider) started to spread out a little more. What was troubling was that the rest of the pack didn't really seem to move much. 11:10, 11:20 ... still no real signs of movement. By 11:25 or so, we were starting to creep forward, but it was that uncomfortable middle ground where it's just fast enough that you don't want to get caught walking if it picks up, but just slow enough that you can barely ride before you have to get off again.

Finally, by about 11:40, we approached the start line, and we saw that they were sending off riders in bunches. Seems somewhat reasonable, I guess, if you think all people are going to ride at the same speed ... if you don't bother to sort them out beforehand, though, it's pretty dumb. So we finally got to start: we got on our bikes, began pedaling ... and quickly caught up to the group in front of us. Eventually we got a little open space, but it wasn't too long before we were back to walking. WTF? What was happening?

View N.I.T.E. Ride in a larger map

If you zoom in on the map, you'll notice that we head south on West Street and turn left onto Orr Plaza, then head north on Senate. That's the problem. Instead of taking us straight down Ohio, which is fairly wide and built for traffic, they funneled us down a narrow street with stupid concrete objects on each side that was also under construction. Keep in mind that this is, I don't know, barely a mile into the ride. We spent 40 minutes waiting to get started and we can't even get up to speed. (The sad thing was that they had one of the volunteers standing on one of the obstacles, which was good, but trying to make light of the situation, which was bad. Don't make them take the blame for your stupid course design decisions.)

Finally, after that mess, we went around the circle (Indianapolis joke: the fastest I've ever traveled around Monument Circle was on a bicycle) and headed up Illinois. It was at this point where we noticed a significant difference between last year and this year. In 2010, pretty much all the intersections were blocked. Cars simply couldn't cross. This year, there were plenty of intersections where that was not the case. There were even a couple of times where cars were actually on the course behind us. (Note: this is not unusual for a daytime ride, especially a longer one where you can't really block off 50 miles of road. It is unusual for a night ride.)

Other than the crossing traffic and the locals (in one block, a couple of kids were literally playing in the street, and if you want to know where the mom was, it looked like she was reaching out trying to high-five rides, rather aggressively ... one of us actually got smacked by her), and the poor road conditions (Marion County is, of course, short on tax revenue, so the roads are a lot worse than in Hamilton County), and the fact we were about an hour behind schedule, that part of the ride wasn't bad.

We finally made it up to Butler's campus, where the utter darkness of some of the streets (not surprisingly, streets in residential areas are not necessarily brightly lit at all hours) was countered by young, possibly intoxicated[1] coeds cheering us on. Naturally, this was my favorite part of the ride. Well, that and when we were encouraging other people to drink every time they saw a bicycle.[2]

The good times came to an end, though, when we came up to another giant mass of people. The organizers put the SAG stop directly before the entrance to the IMA, which doesn't sound like a big deal ... except that there's a narrow bridge we cross that allows no more than double-file traffic, maybe not even that, so not only was traffic backing up from that, it was backing up from people leaving the SAG stop as well. At this point, we knew the rain in the forecast was closing in on us[3], and given that it was a short ride, we decided to skip the SAG stop.

We also heard a couple of riders talking about skipping the IMA and heading down Michigan. This is the part on the map where we squiggled: the alternative, we thought, was to head down to 38th and turn right. Not a great idea, but with heavy rain coming, we didn't want to get caught in it who knows where, so we headed out with them. Naturally, one of the volunteers told us not to go down 38th because it was dangerous. (Hey, we ride out this way, we know the risks.)

BUT ... someone else remembered that there was another entrance to the IMA, and it might be unlocked. It was, in fact, and so we did go through most of the IMA (thus the squiggle), only without the mindless bottleneck. Why wasn't this the normal route? I have no idea.

Finally, we shot down White River Parkway, back to Indiana and onto IUPUI's campus, just as rain was starting to fall. We looked at each other, considered our general lack of hunger, and mostly skipped the dinner at the end. (Fazoli's, last time: not bad, but not worth getting soaked at 1:40 AM.)

18.2 miles, 1:47 (does include some circling), 10.2 mph. That is not a misprint. Horrible, miserable ride ... and the worst part is that they do not publish the route in advance. I'll do the dinner ride next year, but I won't be doing the N.I.T.E. Ride. This was the worst organized ride I've ever done, and frankly I can't understand how you can have a recurring ride like this organized in such a way that it makes you wonder if the people who mapped the route have ever ridden a bike or organized a ride before.

ANYWAY, end rant. Throw in another Thursday ride-to-market (17.6 miles, 12.5 mph; that's an estimate, one rider blew out a tire – yes, literally – and I forgot to start My Tracks when we resumed the ride) and a quick trip to a friend's house to feed cats (5.5 miles, 14.9 mph), and that's a touch over 75 miles. Not bad for 10 days, but a far cry from last year. Ah, to be less busy again ... just a joke. I'd rather make money than ride my bike.

[1] It's summer, a Saturday night, maybe 12:30 or so, and they're standing outside and cheering for people they don't know and probably can't even see that well. Draw your own conclusions ... (return)

[2] Note: do not do this. Now, if you drank every time you saw a tandem or a recumbent ... (return)

[3] Always travel with people in recumbents. They can do special things, like check the weather while riding. (return)

Old cats, new tricks

2011-06-20T19:40:00.001-04:00

So recently, Calle has been meowing at me with a particular volume and frequency that means something. To a cat, the meaning is perfectly clear, but to me it means one of the following:

Feed me!
No, with fresh food.
I'm bored, pay attention to me.
I'm going to throw up, where should it be?
There is a dangerous intruder in the house, ready to steal all of our tuna and catnip ...
or maybe it's just a beetle.
Open this door, I forgot what's behind it.

Normally, I ignore these meows so that they don't set any more of a precedent than they already have, but given that there was, in the past, a similar sequence that eventually led to I can haz cancer (warning: may contain weepiness), I figured I should investigate more closely.

I put fresh dry food into the bowl. I sit down and watch the cat eat. It turns out that she's eating, well, like I did when I had my braces on. Carefully. This is somewhat good (she has energy, so if the big C has come back, it's still early) but mostly bad (because normally cats that like dry food will eat it normally).

Next test: tuna. I get out two small plates, put tuna on one and broth on the other (for some reason, Josie is one of about four cats in the world who won't eat tuna). Calle's tuna is gone. OK, that makes it seem like wet food might be an option. (She's 16. I'm lucky her teeth have lasted this long.)

So I stop at the store, and among other things, pick out three different types of wet food. (These cats are picky; more than a couple of types of food have been rejected.) I come home, and the Meow Parade returns. I open one can, split it about 60/40, and serve it.

All gone

Yep, this one too

Yeah, so that's pretty much definitive. Yes, both plates are pretty much clean, which means yes, Josie ate her food too. (Also, Calle went back to both plates after I'd taken the pictures, just to make sure they were really clean.)

Sooooo ... I guess we'll be buying wet food from here on out. So glad I just bought a big bag of Science Diet ...

Another nice ride, must be the weather

2011-06-16T22:26:00.001-04:00

Spring has sprung, the grass has riz, I think I see, where the heat is. Where it is not, is here, at least right now. It's getting hotter, but it's still in the metric 20s[1], so riding is not at all a problem.

We did sort of the same route as last week, to the Millersville Farmers' Market and back, except that apparently Mayor Ballard found some money for road repairs (most likely from the feds), and they're paving approximately 90%[2] of our normal route, so we changed it up on the way back. (Suddenly that unplanned practice on the unpaved Monon is paying off ...)

This time, the Farmers' Market purchase was Maggie Moo's. Sadly, there were no mix-ins, just plain ice cream. Yes, I ate some, no, I did not take pills, yes, that may be some kind of dieting trick (although not intentional), and no, you shouldn't have asked. Some people don't want to read about that kind of stuff on this blog.[3] Did I mention the music? Last time there was a guy doing passable Billy Joel covers (pretty much standard for a solo artist with a keyboard); this time it was a duet covering the Eagles, Cat Stevens, and other AM radio blasts from the '70s.[4]

Finished our snacks, back on the bikes, went back a slightly different route but still up the nice hill and got back in pretty good shape. ems will tell you that I "cheated" and "never stopped" prior to the hill: I say that the car coming from the right slowed waaaaay down (it did), obviously giving us a chance to build up speed. Not my fault that no one else planned for that.

Overall, it was about the same as last week. ~~In fact, it was identical according to My Tracks:~~ Slightly slower, 12.30 mph. Although the ride was shorter (17.01 mi), we took only slightly less time (1:23). Bonus fact: when uploading your data to Google Docs, My Tracks doesn't overwrite the existing workbook, but adds new rows below what you already have, so it didn't overwrite the combined totals from last week's ride. (There's no way to pause recording, so when we take a break, it splits the ride in two.)

View Thursday 6/16 ride in a larger map

[1] For metrically-deficient folks, 25°C is 77°F. It's not that hard to go from C to F when you stay on the fives: 9/5 C (divide by 5, multiply by 9, so that's 45) plus 32 (see, 77). Still can't do it? Get some help. (return)

[2] Exaggeration. It was more like 40% ... it just happened to be most of the first 40%. (return)

[3] Which is too bad: someone almost literally shit a brick today at work. When I went into the stall to change, there was a fairly thick, um, log still in the toilet. I did my business and flushed. Still there. I changed, which meant two more flushes, because the sensor for the automatic flushing mechanism isn't centered (and thus you have to stand off to the side or else it flushes regularly). One more attempt and it was still there ... add in the one from the person who deposited it, and it survived at least five flushes. This guy needs either a doctor or a trophy. Maybe both. (return)

[4] I remember when New Kid in Town was released. We heard it at least three times on WTTS that night on our Sesame Street radio. No, it's not around any more, and yes, I'd recognize it immediately if I saw it. Google didn't turn up any hits. (return)

Not 95-degree weather

2011-06-09T22:27:00.002-04:00

Yes, folks, today I went on a little ride and I did not sweat like an Ohio State fan awaiting the NCAA's verdict. It was a relatively short ride, from BGI North to the farmers' market at roughly 56th and Emerson IIRC, then back. (We took a ~~short~~medium-length break when we were there for snacks. I had a white-chocolate-covered strawberry from Chocolate for the Spirit, light on the chocolate. I wanted pulled pork and such, but it was still in the 80s and we had about 7 miles to ride back.)

We rode at a pretty good clip on the way there, just under 13 mph by my phone's calculations, and a good bit of that uphill. The one good climb was on the way back, though ... my hill work on Tuesday did remind my legs of what to do, but we really couldn't build up any speed at the bottom (crossing Fall Creek, for one, and waiting for oncoming traffic for another), so I was doing my 100-rpm spin in 1-1. lol. Oh! Summary: 17.68 miles, 1:15, 12.48 mph. Max speed, 24.61, pedaling downhill. (I probably could have gone faster, but it's not good practice to run over fellow cyclists, especially on road bikes. They can catch you.)

The farmers' market was definitely worth it, though. Lots of interesting food there. We'll have to go some time when we can take some food back with us ... the Camelbak that I have is the slim 50-ounce kind, and when it's at capacity, if I have my first aid kit as well, there isn't really room for cargo.

It was good to get out in cooler weather and to ride twice in a week. Might do a longer ride at some point, or maybe just more hill work.

View BGI to Farmers Market in a larger map

Perfect riding weather

2011-06-07T21:07:00.000-04:00

can be found in many other parts of the world right now. However, at this time of year, Indiana typically has two types of weather, heat and thunderstorms, so I figured I'd ride in the heat. (My evenings are much busier than last year, so I have to take what I can get.) The high today was in the mid-90s (mid-30s for my friends in Metricville), so it wasn't great weather, but I had my Camelbak, my helmet, shade along the way, and experience in heat, so that was good enough.

Goal today: hills. Actually, I mean "hills". In northern and central Indiana, hills are little bumps on the map. It isn't until you get to southern Indiana (Bloomington, Columbus, etc.) that you get hills that are numerous and challenging. (We do have hills here, kind of, depending on how close you are to a river.) So there are nice little inclines along 146th and up the Monon that I thought I'd do.

I started off at the Rohrer Road trailhead, conveniently forgetting that the 0.5-mile stretch to 146th was slightly uphill. Headed east across Meridian (btw, the pedestrian light at the entrance to Clay Terrace changes immediately when you press the button, unlike other lights that make you wait a cycle), around the corner to the Lowe's lot, and then back up the hill. Up to the intersection, around the corner, back up the hill again ... and at this point, I decided that perhaps smaller inclines would be a good idea. You know, a heat index nearing 100° and all that.

So I headed back to 146th, crossed at the light, and headed north. The Monon is slightly uphill for the rest of the way, so I got some more slow-climbing practice ... until I crossed 161st, and I realized that they'd a) fixed the part of the trail that was under construction last year and b) extended the trail into Westfield.

Now, that sounds like really exciting news, but let me tell you this. If you ride a road bike, you do not want to ride this part of the trail. 2.9 miles on a gravel road – at least it was the gravel that you pave over and not a gravel driveway, or else I'd never have made it, not even on a hybrid. As it was, there were a couple of parts where the trail was a little soft and I slid a little, but I made it. However, there was a lot of bouncing (no shocks on this bike), and there were several parts of the trail where there was no attempt to make a smooth transition from one surface to another.

So, after my little 5.8-mile stretch of semi-off-road cycling, I got a somewhat-downhill leg back to the trailhead. Got in a nice little 18-mph sprint to 146th, about 17 for the half mile after that, and then it was time to get off the bike and get into a cool car. (Um, after I remembered to switch it from new air to recirculate, and from defroster/feet to face/feet. lol.)

Stats from this ride, nicely uploaded to Google Docs (thanks to My Tracks for making that happen) and to Google Maps (hopefully you'll see that below):

Just under an hour (0:59 riding time), 11.66 miles, 11.79 mph, 511 ft gain in elevation (cumulative, I suppose), top speed of 19.01 mph. That's actually pretty close to what my cyclometer read (11.87 miles, 12 mph even, 19.5 top speed).

Also, Chocolate Chip Creme Pies are tasty. I prefer them to Oatmeal Creme Pies, even if they don't taste that chocolatey. (Yes, that wasn't the best post-ride snack, although honestly it's not that bad for you, and anyway, you weren't in Kroger offering to buy me an expensive smoothie, now were you? No? Then hush.)

View Hill practice, Carmel/Westfield in a larger map